Posted on 06/24/2020 4:53:34 AM PDT by Stravinsky
Joseph R. Biden Jr. has taken a commanding lead over President Trump in the 2020 race, building a wide advantage among women and nonwhite voters and making deep inroads with some traditionally Republican-leaning groups that have shifted away from Mr. Trump following his ineffective response to the coronavirus pandemic, according to a new national poll of registered voters by The New York Times and Siena College.
Mr. Biden is currently ahead of Mr. Trump by 14 percentage points, garnering 50 percent of the vote compared with 36 percent for Mr. Trump. That is among the most dismal showings of Mr. Trump’s presidency, and a sign that he is the clear underdog right now in his fight for a second term.
Mr. Trump has been an unpopular president for virtually his entire time in office. He has made few efforts since his election in 2016 to broaden his support beyond the right-wing base that vaulted him into office with only 46 percent of the popular vote and a modest victory in the Electoral College.
...
The dominant picture that emerges from the poll is of a country ready to reject a president whom a strong majority of voters regard as failing the greatest tests confronting his administration.
Mr. Biden leads Mr. Trump by enormous margins with black and Hispanic voters, and women and young people appear on track to choose Mr. Biden by an even wider margin than they favored Hillary Clinton over Mr. Trump in 2016. But the former vice president has also drawn even with Mr. Trump among male voters, whites and people in middle age and older — groups that have typically been the backbones of Republican electoral success, including Mr. Trump’s in 2016.
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
And what is your point? Why would anyone expect any poll run by those who have dedicated themselves to lying about Trump from day uno to be reliable? Why would any media or university poll be dedicated to anything right now but demoralizing us?
It won’t.
If a dead cat had won the democrat nomination, you can be right now the dead cat would be up by a zillion.
I will, however, say this. Trump needs to up his game. The democrat plan is clear as a bell. They aim to prevent a campaign from happening and for Biden to win by default.
Hillary lost because her base didn’t turn out. That’s why these polls of registered voters are useless. The enthusiasm for Biden is about 10 points lower than for her. You do the math.
And don’t tell me that voters will turn out motivated by their hatred of Trump. They hated him just as much 4 years ago.
Bottom line: Biden peaked too early. Even the NYT recognizes that these numbers are motivated by covid and race. In November these issues will be ancient history.
I hope you are right. Thanks.
Are you thinking of Woodward or Bernstein?
;>)
If the voters prefer Biden over President Trump, so be it. I am voting for President Trump. I don’t give a damn what the rest do.
This one wrote for NYet Times, HuffPoo, Pollutico and Buzzbait
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ali_Watkins
From December 2013 to December 2017, Watkins was in a romantic relationship with the former head of security for the Senate Intelligence Committee, James A. Wolfe.[23][24][25] The FBI opened an investigation into Wolfe after an April 2017 article by Watkins described contacts between Russian spies and Donald Trump policy adviser and Carter Page, who had not been publicly identified in relation to those contacts and who was working for the CIA at the time of the meetings.[26][27][28] On October 15, 2018, Wolfe pleaded guilty to one count of lying to the FBI about his relationship with Watkins.[29][27] Prosecutors alleged that Wolfe leaked to Watkins and three other reporters.[30] Watkins denied that Wolfe ever provided her classified information.[31] Watkins disclosed the relationship to her employers BuzzFeed News, The New York Times,[32][33] and Politico;[34] however, McClatchy editors said they were ignorant of the relationship while Watkins was an intern and employee from mid-2013 through 2014.[35] Following the Wolfe relationship, Watkins dated another Senate Intelligence Committee staff member, which Politico, her employer at the time, has said she failed to disclose.[36]
—
There was one who was sexual with several different government contacts
And how much did they have Hilary up by this time in 2016?
You keep falling for the same fake news “polls” every single time.
“Yes, but that’s one poll. Most polls at that point showed the race much closer. The polling average was Clinton +5 at this point. Right now it’s Biden +10.”
If you’re referring to the current RPC average, the specific polls included in their current average make a big difference. For example, in 2016 the LA times tracking poll which showed better numbers for Trump was included, which helped his average. So far I’m not seeing that poll along with some of the others in the current RCP average. Instead we’re mostly seeing polls from polling organizations that historically have looked bad for Trump, at least so far.
A bumbling drooling old man in a basement, yeah ok
Biden has a long long long record. It isn’t pretty. He is vulnerable. Like Hillary, he was shielded during the primary from defending his record. Balless Bernie sure as heck wasn’t going to attack him on his record.
Just my take: the polls have gotten far worse, not better.
The pollsters flat rebelled at changing their methods, and have drifted even further off.
But, hey, you guys believe all the Hoax Polls you want.
The state polls are in now from this survey
New York Times/Siena State Polls
Arizona: Biden 48%, Trump 41%
Florida: Biden 47%, Trump 41%
Michigan: Biden 47%, Trump 36%
North Carolina: Biden 49%, Trump 40%
Pennsylvania: Biden 50%, Trump 40%
Wisconsin: Biden 49%, Trump 38%
THREE authors
Looking at the internals, looks like basically all of Trumps problems is from white voters. White voters are shifting to Biden in a big way. Black and Hispanic voters are mostly unchanged. Trump is losing college Ed white voters by 22pts. He lost them by 12pts to Hillary. Also older white voters shifting heavily to Biden as well.
“Michigan: Biden 47%, Trump 36%”
Pollster Who Got It Right in 2016: Michigan a Dead Heat:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3858384/posts
Cool. Let’s hope they stay this way since out of 167 polls done from 2015-2016, Trump only led (barely) in 30.
At the state level they were horrifically wrong:
WI the avg RCP error was SEVEN.
OH the avg RCP error, even in having Trump winning, was FIVE.
FL the avg RCP error was over TWO.
NO pollster got WI. Even Richard Baris, whose own polling showed him winning, couldn’t believe it and on election eve gave WI to Cankles.
TWO pollsters, Baris and Trafalgar, had Trump winning PA and MI.
In short, the pollsters were not just bad, they were outrageously bad. They followed up with being wrong about Brexit I, Israel, Brexit II, Brazil, and were badly off in the FL, IN, and MO senate races and in the FL gov race. As I recall they also under counted both Abbott and Ducey.
“But, hey, you guys believe all the Hoax Polls you want.”
Do you get the feeling that even creepy Joe’s campaign and some Democrats don’t believe them?
Yes, but none of the DemoKKKrat leadership or the veep candidates.
No I get the feeling that Sleepy Joe and his team feel VERY comfortable. They see staying in the basement and not campaigning or saying anything or releasing policy is a winning move. Sure Repubs will call BS but the media will cover for him. As long as he sees himself in strong position polling wise he may never leave the basement.
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