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To: ScottfromNJ; LS

The state polls are in now from this survey

New York Times/Siena State Polls

Arizona: Biden 48%, Trump 41%

Florida: Biden 47%, Trump 41%

Michigan: Biden 47%, Trump 36%

North Carolina: Biden 49%, Trump 40%

Pennsylvania: Biden 50%, Trump 40%

Wisconsin: Biden 49%, Trump 38%

https://t.co/E14kuLw6rj


153 posted on 06/25/2020 4:58:43 AM PDT by St. Louis Conservative
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To: St. Louis Conservative

“Michigan: Biden 47%, Trump 36%”

Pollster Who Got It Right in 2016: Michigan a Dead Heat:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3858384/posts


156 posted on 06/25/2020 6:10:30 AM PDT by ScottfromNJ
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To: St. Louis Conservative

Cool. Let’s hope they stay this way since out of 167 polls done from 2015-2016, Trump only led (barely) in 30.

At the state level they were horrifically wrong:

WI the avg RCP error was SEVEN.
OH the avg RCP error, even in having Trump winning, was FIVE.
FL the avg RCP error was over TWO.

NO pollster got WI. Even Richard Baris, whose own polling showed him winning, couldn’t believe it and on election eve gave WI to Cankles.

TWO pollsters, Baris and Trafalgar, had Trump winning PA and MI.

In short, the pollsters were not just bad, they were outrageously bad. They followed up with being wrong about Brexit I, Israel, Brexit II, Brazil, and were badly off in the FL, IN, and MO senate races and in the FL gov race. As I recall they also under counted both Abbott and Ducey.


157 posted on 06/25/2020 6:24:23 AM PDT by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually" (Hendrix))
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