Posted on 06/17/2020 5:18:28 AM PDT by Kaslin
Henry Olsen, a scholar from the Ethics and Public Policy Center in Washington, D.C., has a well-deserved reputation for on-target analysis on politics and elections.
Olsen just published a column in the Washington Post titled "Trump may be down, but he is not out. At least not yet."
The bottom has fallen out of President Donald Trump's approval ratings. Most recently, Gallup reports his approval at 39%, down 10 points from the month before.
According to Olsen, by conventional analysis, the outlook for a Trump victory in November is not good. "Presidents who polled this poorly less than five months before Election Day have always lost," he wrote.
But how useful is conventional analysis now?
President Trump is not a conventional figure. These are not conventional times. And his polling has been like a roller coaster since he was elected.
The standard reelection campaign refrain is "Are you better off now than you were four years ago?"
President Trump ran on a theme: "Make America Great Again." Voters will ask in November, "Is America greater today than four years ago?"
Here again, there is reason for concern.
Another new Gallup poll shows the percentage of Americans saying they are "extremely" or "very" proud of their country is the lowest ever, at 63%. This is 18 points lower than where it stood four years ago.
Gallup also now reports only 20% of Americans saying they are satisfied with the direction of the country. Just four months ago, in February, it stood at 45%, the highest it had stood in 15 years.
The first big drop in satisfaction occurred following the spread of COVID-19. Then, in May, it dropped 12 points following the death of George Floyd.
Last February, the economy was surging, as was Trump's approval. Unemployment, including black unemployment, was at all-time lows.
Now Trump is being tarred, justifiably or not, with COVID-19 and racial unrest.
Can light enter the tunnel?
The May jobs report was strong, showing a drop in unemployment and 2.5 million new jobs. The economy is starting to roar back.
Most certainly, there will be some kind of bipartisan legislation dealing with policing. Demonstrations don't go on forever. Time, plus action on policing, could take the edge off racial tensions.
A sharp economic recovery and easing of racial tensions can produce a bounce-back for Trump like he has seen in the past.
What is critical?
What motivated voters to go Republican in 2016 and swing six blue states red was the Make America Great Again message: freedom in the marketplace and draining the swamp in Washington.
The challenges are even greater now than then.
We are now looking at a $2 trillion-plus deficit. National debt now stands at 110% of our gross domestic product -- the highest since World War II.
The answers to our COVID-19 recovery and our racial challenges must be freedom. Only freedom will open the door to innovation and respecting the humanity of every citizen.
It will be easy to go down the alternative road, where the nation's left would like to take us -- institutionalizing the massive surge of government to deal with COVID-19 and more government-mandated diversity as the answer to racial tensions. This will bog us down with socialism and slow growth, hurting the very people we supposedly want to help.
Let's give credit to the American people. We're facing different crises today. But dealing with the greatest crisis is the best way to deal with the other ones. That greatest crisis is choosing the right path for the nation's future.
The candidate who conveys to voters a sense that America's future will be defined by freedom, and a rule of law that respects the humanity of all and is carried out fairly and equally, is the candidate America's majority will choose.
Biden is a potted plant. No way he beats Trump.
And give in to the Marxist insurrectionists?
It may be too late.
No.
The same question is being asked of the mumblin’, bumblin’ Gropin’ Joe, no?
‘Recover’?
S’cuse me?
That’s looking at it the wrong way...
We can’t start thinking Trump will win only because Biden sucks so bad, Trump could win no matter who the democrats run- he’s that good.
We know it, the media knows it, and the democrats know it- that’s why all this craziness and desperation on their part.
I think Trump could have won if he ran in the Democrat primary as well as the GOP primary. (is that possible?)
Star Parker? Really? Wonder what’s up with her?
That said, President Trump will be reelected. And the Commies will continue to make life miserable for us all.
And not a ONE will pay any sort of consequence.
And when President Trump no longer stands between, ‘We The People’ and the likes of Pelosi, et al, we are done for. :(
Trump supporters are more closeted than they were in 2016. The vicious left suppresses free speech. If the integrity of the ballot can be preserved, Trump will win. The only chance the left has is massive voter fraud.
Recover from what”
https://www.mediaite.com/news/former-nbc-executive-sounds-alarm-on-bidens-young-voter-problem-he-hasnt-inspired-them-at-all/ a staggering THIRTY FIVE POINT ENTHUSIASM LEAD OVER BIDEN?
https://www.newsmax.com/politics/donald-trump-campaign-rally-tulsa/2020/06/15/id/972310/
Or maybe Trump needs to recover from over ONE MILLION TICKET REQUESTS FOR HIS TULSA RALLY
NO IT MUST BE THE BIGGEST JUMP IN RETAIL SALES IN HISTORY COMBINED WITH THE LARGEST INCREASE IN EMPLOYMENT FOR ONE MONTH SINCE 1939
This is a stupid premise. We must stop listening to stupid people saying stupid things to meet deadlines.
At least three THREE Democrats Ryan from Ohio, Dingell and Whitmer from Michigan are saying Biden’s good poll numbers are fake or he is in mental decline.
Stop believing psy-ops whereever it comes from.
Ping
Don’t believe the polls. especially those paid for bay ABCNNBCBSNYTWAPOLAT..................
Three things:
1. China. People have not forgotten China’s role in not only the spread of COVID-19, but her roughshod ways around the world—making critical things we need, dumping on our economy, and stealing our intellectual property. Trump is the anti-China. He is the ONLY one not rolling over and showing his belly.
2. The Silent majority. Cowed into not supporting Trump (try wearing a MAGA hat in NYC or Minneapolis!), they might not be so shy in the privacy of the voting booth. Defunding police, attacking law enforcement, supporting looters and pillagers is just not going to win over the average person. Trump lost points because he wasn’t HARD enough on these criminals. The democrats want to applaud and encourage them! They want to tear down every statue, cow people into silence, and destroy history. Vote for the party that endorses this behavior? Hardly.
3. The rest of the year. Rallies restarting. Economy rolling. Civil unrest and COVID spent and receding. All favor Trump.
Can Biden form a coherent sentence?
Not a chance.
I think the Tulsa kickoff will be very telling... it would be great if Tulsa was flooded with millions even if folks were told to stay home because the event is sold out. That would make it evident for all to see that the media is lying through their teeth as to his support numbers.
Second term elections are simply referendums on the incumbent.. nothing more.
And as much as they want to say Trump will lose. I don’t see it
Even in these latest polls. Show me one poll that asked did you vote for trump. Before and do you plan on voting for him again that shows any movement away from the president by supporters...
I haven’t seen a simple folk yet that asked those questions and shows any diminished support for Trump.
More gas lighting. Same as the polls claiming Hilllar would win GA by 10 and Pa By 10... nonsense
Thanks for that post.
Ask yourself: Knowing what we know about media duplicity, how many conservatives and patriots are willing to cooperate with pollsters?
I must get a robocall from one of these outfits every other day. I invariably hang up immediately.
And it’s not just the political bias — answering polls is an imposition on my time, for which I get nothing in return.
GET OF YOUR LAZY ASS AND VOTE FOR HIM ON NOVEMBER 3RD
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