Posted on 05/27/2020 2:58:38 AM PDT by JohnRand
Earlier this month, the University of Minnesota School of Public Health released projections from a revised coronavirus computer model that said deaths might double by Memorial Day.
That didnt happen.
In fact, to a layman, it doesnt even look close.
Minnesota Health Commissioner Jan Malcolm and a key official involved in the model both acknowledged Tuesday that the short-term death projections of the model are notably higher than the reality but both defended the value of the model.
(Excerpt) Read more at twincities.com ...
The number of deaths is cumulative. Barring an explosion of miracles, the number can only go up.
What is the effect on the economy of letting such a deadly disease circulate freely?>>>>>>>>>>>>>
We no longer have a free capitalist entrepreneurial economy.
A socialists wet dream copme true.
Thats why we see Whats happening in blue states as hundreds of thousands of small businesses are forced to close down for good, creating a whole new dependent class, dependent on government rather than themselves.
This result is what President Trump is fighting by bringing back the economy as best he can. Radical socialist dems in every blue state are fighting him, extending the lock downs in the name of “science.”
It would not surprise me at all to see radical socialist operatives organize teams of infected Covid-19 cadres to enter red states in order to willfully create clusters of infected population in areas where the economy begins to do well.Wouldn’t surprise me in the least.
Um... every time you catch something, there is a period when you are asymptomatic, called the "prodrome." No one starts coughing and sneezing the second they are exposed to an infectious dose of cold virus.
FYI, if it weren't for studies like this one that show that Covid-19 spreads from asymptomatic/presymptomatic people, we wouldn't have widespread lock-downs to prevent the virus from becoming endemic.
Not just that, but he is a business man and does not really understand the science. That said, I am glad he is listening to his advisors. They give him the essence of what people who literally are the best in the world at what they do have discovered and continue to discover about Covid-19.
It is hard to overlook the fact that in the countries where the residents don face masks any time there is a hint of an outbreak, Covid-19 has not hit nearly as hard as in the western countries.
No one yet has called me out on anything. While I can and frequently do link to data sources, the CDC, the medical literature, etc., to support what I say, not a single person has ever linked to a credible source that would refute anything I have said on this subject.
The issue is not me. The issue is that there are a lot of scientifically illiterate people out there who, for some reason, embrace ridiculous beliefs like the one that Covid-19 erupted everywhere simultaneously and almost everyone has had it without symptoms and we now have herd immunity.
I am not political with this (or most) issues. Please tell me how the view that we must stop this deadly disease before it becomes endemic is anything other than a public health position. I stand on the side of the scientific facts.
And yes, I know full well that the reason you don't like my data analyses is because you fall squarely in the camp of those who believe ridiculous unscientific nonsense and conspiracy theories. Therefore, you hold the science suspect while engaging in behaviors that will keep the pandemic going, making you a very dangerous person.
I'm seeing businesses adapt. People are creative, and if allowed the freedom to express their creativity, will come up with new ways to do business.
In my area, people are wearing masks in public. They go shopping with masks on. I went to the doctor, and there were big circles put on the floor in front of the reception desks so people know where to stand to be six feet apart. I can order items on line and go to the store, where they will bring it out to me in the parking lot. On-line shopping with home delivery is booming. Our local park has instituted one way walking paths so that people can still enjoy a waterfront promenade without facing other people. Etc.
I can't help but wonder if some of the economic disaster we are being told about is another narrative put out by the left to hurt Trump's chance of reelection. The left and their media accomplices don't count on people paying attention to the leftist power grabs hidden in the guise of combating the pandemic. This is something we really have to be aware of.
LOL, my brother, the Dr. said that what you said about being “asymptomatic” in the minutes, hrs and days BEFORE becoming “symptomatic” is on the very fringes correct if you are speaking of someone being a day after coming in contact with a person having the virus.
But he also said the term “asymptomatic” applies to an individual who has contracted and resolved the disease without showing any symptoms at ANY time.
I showed him some of your posts and his opinion is if you even are a Dr. you are apparently not a medical Dr.
Anyone with hindsight can now see the lock down was a completely wrong way to go and only a very specific group of people needed to take precautions. You however insist the lock down was proper and should continue and even say it was beneficial when it is now more than evident this “cure” was far, far worse than the disease.
Comparing Sweden to Italy, which had one of the worst outbreaks? Using old data?
How about comparing Sweden to its neighbors or to all other countries, as fellow poster Doughty One does every day? http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3849544/posts
How about using current data instead of 2 month old data? (Today: Sweden cases per million: 3538; deaths per million 422.)
If you are going to try to show that my data is wrong, you can’t cherry pick from the past and make invalid comparisons.
Data sources:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
The issue is that there are a lot of scientifically illiterate people out there
...making you a dangerous person
I’m only going to say this once:
The models presumed no natural resistance (100% susceptible), and from that follows R0 >1, and from that follow the numbers.
As it turns out, there is significant natural resistance, probably encoded in long-lived memory T cells and resulting from exposure to other coronaviruses, or in the case of infants, maternal antibodies.
R0 on the Diamond Princess and the USS Theodore Roosevelt calculate out to 0.48.
I can’t help but wonder if some of the economic disaster we are being told about is another narrative put out by the left to hurt Trump’s chance of reelection.>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
No question about that. Its a fact.
But I was describing the goal of what the left entertains and wants to bring about out of this crisis.
In short, while we open, we must understand its not just opening our country, its a battle against tyranny and the socialist cause. As such we should view opening ourt country as a battle, and we must move with unity to win.That means understanding what’s really going on so we who want freedom can unify and be victorious. The leftuist socialists want to keep the middle class poor.They want riots in Minneapolis and Saint Paul to upset the economic recovery, and so they inflame them just as Keith Elison and Ilhan Omar are doing.
Watch for a lot more of this in other cities this summer as the left inflames the radical anarchists to make sure the Wuhan virus spreads further and spikes. And we patriots must guard our businesses with arms if necessary and be prepared to deter any looters.
This may indeed be the beginning of CWII, a national urban warfare against the liberal fascists in various blue states.
And haven't had since 1913.
got it, Dr Fauci.
I agree.
That’s when it began.
Your brother is doctor of what, exactly? History? Sociology? Women's studies?
I have never in my entire professional career encountered a physician or scientist who is unaware that all infectious diseases have a prodrome period in which there are no symptoms.
I'll bet that you didn't read the link to the medical literature that I provided earlier, either.
Well, thank you!
You've just acknowledged that I have not said anything that contradicts any of the public health messaging regarding Covid-19. That's awesome.
but if you want to identify with that hack, knock yourself out.
“I have never in my entire professional career encountered a physician or scientist who is unaware that all infectious diseases have a prodrome period in which there are no symptoms.”
That is NOT what I said and you are being disingenuous. According to your way of thinking EVERY SINGLE person infected is “asymptomatic....until they are not. If that isn’t pure bs than nothing is.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.