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New IHME model predicts more than 147,000 Americans will die from COVID-19 by early August
MSN ^ | 05/13/2020 | Chris Aung-Thwin

Posted on 05/13/2020 7:35:14 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

NEW U.S. PROJECTIONS

-A newly revised coronavirus mortality model predicts more than 147,000 Americans will die from COVID-19 by early August , up nearly 10,000 from the last projection, as restrictions for curbing the pandemic are relaxed, researchers said on Tuesday. The latest forecast from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) reflects “key drivers of viral transmission like changes in testing and mobility, as well as easing of distancing policies,” the report said.

The projections are presented as a range, with the latest forecast – 147,000-plus deaths – representing the average between a best-case scenario of 102,783 lives lost and a worst-case scenario of 223,489 fatalities. The forecasts have fluctuated over the past couple of months, with a projected death toll as low as 60,000 on April 18.

(Excerpt) Read more at msn.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: covid19; ihme; model; mortality
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1 posted on 05/13/2020 7:35:14 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

2 posted on 05/13/2020 7:37:07 PM PDT by DannyTN
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To: SeekAndFind

Oh, we’ll get to that number. Everyone who dies in NY and NJ will be coded as a COVID death. Bank on it.


3 posted on 05/13/2020 7:37:38 PM PDT by Antoninus (The press has lost the ability to persuade. They retain the ability to foment a panic.)
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To: SeekAndFind

How many of the articles have you posted from the pandemic panic peddlers? 200? 400?


4 posted on 05/13/2020 7:38:18 PM PDT by dragnet2 (Diversion and evasion are tools of deceit)
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To: SeekAndFind

So in 3 months we are looking at double to triple the number of deaths? Smells like BS


5 posted on 05/13/2020 7:38:35 PM PDT by a fool in paradise (Joe Biden- "First thing I'd do is repeal those Trump tax cuts." (May 4th, 2019))
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To: DannyTN

Are those graphs corrected for population?


6 posted on 05/13/2020 7:38:48 PM PDT by Steely Tom ([Seth Rich] == [the Democrats' John Dean])
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To: DannyTN

What a crap graph. China’s numbers are BS. They should not be on there. Masks have been mandatory in NY and NY and they have the highest rate of COVID in the country by far.


7 posted on 05/13/2020 7:39:28 PM PDT by Antoninus (The press has lost the ability to persuade. They retain the ability to foment a panic.)
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To: DannyTN

“Informed by the lessons of history,the Constitution was established to safeguard the rights of the people even under the most exigent circumstances. The framers “foresaw that troublous times would arise, when rulers and people would become restive under restraint, and seek by sharp and decisive measures to accomplish ends deemed just and proper; and that the principles of constitutional liberty would be in peril, unless established by irrepealable law. The history of the world had taught them that what was done in the past might be attempted in the future. The Constitution of the United States is a law for rulers and people, equally in war and in peace, and covers with the shield of its protection all classes of men, at all times, and under all circumstances. No doctrine, involving more pernicious consequences, was ever invented by the wit of man than that any of its provisions can be suspended during any of the great exigencies of government. Such a doctrine leads directly to anarchy or despotism, but the theory of necessity on which it is based is false; for the government, within the Constitution, has all the powers granted to it, which are necessary to preserve its existence; as has been happily proved by the result of the great effort to throw off its just authority.” Ex parte Milligan, 71 U.S. 2, 120-21 (1866) (emphasis added). It is especially in times of emergency that we must protect the rights of the people, lest we establish a dangerous precedent empowering less benevolent government officials in the future to oppress the people in the name of exigency. In America THE LAW IS KING! For as in absolute governments the king is law, so in free countries the law ought to be king; and there ought to be no other.” Thomas Paine, 1776, Common Sense (1776). In Wisconsin, as in the rest of America, the Constitution is our king——not the governor, not the legislature, not the judiciary, and not a cabinet secretary. We can never “allow fundamental freedoms to be sacrificed in the name of real or perceived exigency” nor risk subjecting the rights of the people to “the mercy of wicked rulers, or the clamor of an excited people.” Fear never overrides the Constitution. Not even in times of public emergencies, not even in a pandemic.”


8 posted on 05/13/2020 7:40:36 PM PDT by TexasGurl24
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To: SeekAndFind

Yeah they’ve got to keep up the scare. Most likely no where near reality unless they continue to refuse to protect nursing homes.


9 posted on 05/13/2020 7:40:57 PM PDT by Robert DeLong
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To: SeekAndFind

Sorry, my GAS meter for deaths from anything the left says is important has gone way down. I do apologize.

Somebody remind me please. How many people do we lose to abortion every year? I’m not clear headed at the moment.


10 posted on 05/13/2020 7:43:06 PM PDT by FamiliarFace
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To: DannyTN

flawed, needs to have each countries’ populations per cases factored in


11 posted on 05/13/2020 7:45:14 PM PDT by Secret Agent Man (Gone Galt; Not Averse to Going Bronson.)
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To: dragnet2

RE: How many of the articles have you posted from the pandemic panic peddlers? 200? 400?

And how many of these articles have you refuted?


12 posted on 05/13/2020 7:45:59 PM PDT by SeekAndFind (look at Michigan, it will)
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To: SeekAndFind
Oh noes 😱😱😱😱 We’re all gonna die
13 posted on 05/13/2020 7:46:41 PM PDT by Nifster (I see puppy dogs in the clouds)
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To: Secret Agent Man

also considering tge vast, vast majority of death are older than 60 with preexiating conditions in communtiy living buildings, mask or no mask may not have made any difference.

thanks anti trump journolistas


14 posted on 05/13/2020 7:46:44 PM PDT by Secret Agent Man (Gone Galt; Not Averse to Going Bronson.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Oh Noes!
Surely their model must be correct This time!


15 posted on 05/13/2020 7:49:13 PM PDT by Do_Tar (Do I really need a /sarc?)
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To: SeekAndFind

This is a useless crap sandwich. These idiots have been wrong every step of the way


16 posted on 05/13/2020 7:49:54 PM PDT by Nifster (I see puppy dogs in the clouds)
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To: Nifster

RE: This is a useless crap sandwich. These idiots have been wrong every step of the way

This time it’s different they say — this is a new, updated model with “learning” algorithms that correct past errors and takes into account factors that were not in the older version.


17 posted on 05/13/2020 7:53:05 PM PDT by SeekAndFind (look at Michigan, it will)
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To: SeekAndFind

But it still doesn’t match actual data

Just saying it’s as bad as Fauci


18 posted on 05/13/2020 7:58:23 PM PDT by Nifster (I see puppy dogs in the clouds)
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To: DannyTN

Can someone do a national Study by COUNTY of Covid DEATH % with whether its “D” or “R” County?

I’m willing to bet that most of the TOP % counties are “D” with their ‘killer’ policies of ineffectual Covid treatments and responses.

Democrat policies are actually endangering the health of the citizens.


19 posted on 05/13/2020 7:58:29 PM PDT by LibFreeUSA
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To: DannyTN

Pretty worthless chart...not population adjusted.


20 posted on 05/13/2020 7:59:55 PM PDT by Drago
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