Posted on 05/07/2020 3:33:03 AM PDT by DoughtyOne
PING LIST - Please contact me as needed...
COVID-19 Update
As of 05/06/2020 23:45 PDST Johns Hopkins University - Capture Nations Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST Johns Hopkins University - Capture Counties Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 23:46 PDST Johns Hopkins University - Process JHU Data
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST WorldofMeters - Document Core Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST WorldofMeters - Capture Nations Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST WorldofMeters - Capture States Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 00:00 PDST WorldofMeters - Data Processing begins...
As of 00/00/2020 ??:?? PDST Publish COVID-19 Update - 00/00/00
Thank you for stopping by to check out the COVID-19 Update.
Here you can find...
Section: 01 Commentary, Special Reports, COVID-19 Update Info, & System Notes
Section: 02 the United States Situation
Section: 03 the Global Community Situation Outside China
Section: 04 the Global Community Situation Including China with reservations
Section: 05 the Mortality Report
Section: 06 Miscellanious Reports of Interest
Section: 07 the United States, Counties (alphabetical / case no descending)
Section: 08 the United States, States Ranked with the Other States Territories at Bottom
Section: 09 the United States, Ranked with Other Nations
Section: 10 the End of this COVID-19 Update
Section: 11 Data Sources and a Link to My Own Spreadsheet
Section: 12 Link to Spreadsheet: Our Counties, States, Territories, & Other Nations
Section: 13 Links to Other Resources
Section: 01
Commentary, Special Reports, and COVID-19 Update Information8
Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)
Bright Spots
I try to watch the numbers in various areas to see if there are any
trends that look promising. I've noticed a few bright spots. First
I'll address two 'not so bright spots'.
Cases and Fatalities
Cases have grown at their fastest rates for each day of the last four
days. We seem primed to come very close to, or break our larget days
of new Cases. Fatalities although not at record levels, are still
in the upper range, not all that far off from record days.
I can't help but observe that this may be related to a relaxing of the
Shelter in Place program. Folks, I've voiced opinons on both sides of
this issue. On the one hand, our economy cannot remain shut down. We
have to get back out there. Will this cause elevated cases and deaths?
I think so. That does not mean that I don't think we should open up.
We have to.
Although some areas are opening up, and it's too early to impact Cases
and Fatalities, the rub here is that I think folks were violating the
lock-down at an ever increasing rate. These figures we're seeing may
reveal that. I certainly can't prove it. It seems a reasoned
thought.
We're opening up. That's what we have to do. We couldn't avoid
it forever.
Cases and Fatalities
Globally, Resolved Cases came in at 65,057 yesterday. This prevented
the 92,652 new cases from being fully applied to the number of active
cases. Of those 92,652 new Cases, only 27,595 new cases were added
to our already active cases. That was the highest one day total of
resolved cases.
If those remain this high, and the new Cases slips a little, we'll be
reducing the number of active cases. I don't expect that to happen
soon, but it all depends on the numbers of resolved cases that continue
to be reported. That number yesterday was a good sign.
Percentage of Cases Resolved
I've been pointing to this categore for the last three weeks or so. On
04/03 we dropped to the lowest point for this categore, 25.534%.
Yesterday we slipped over 41.000%. I mention this because at some
point this percentage will grow to the point that our number of
active cases will begin to drop. Fewer Cases, fewer deaths...
We are probably a few weeks before that begins to happen, but it
is going to happen as long as things don't go haywire on us.
What if I were to tell you, this is already happening? Well, day to
day it isn't yet, but I take readings more than once per day.
Yesterday the number of Global cases went down on one report work-up.
In the Global outside China category, it went down on the second and
third report work-ups. For the United States our number of Active
Cases also dropped on the 2nd and 3rd reports of the day.
This was caused by the way they report the numbers, but these are
some of the indicators to look for. We're making progress. Don't
totally dismiss it.
Granted, the numbers of Active Cases still continued to climb for
the day in all three categories.
Mortality Rates
I do not report out my calculations on Mortality Rates very often
because during the wild growth stages, recoveries simply cannot keep
up. The Mortaily Rates wind up coming in wildly high. At some point
they do become handy in that they are a marker that can show
improvement. Right now they are.
On 03/07, my mortality rate figures were dropping rapidly... and that
ended as the Global outside China cases started blowing up. On that
date the rate had dropped to 5.65%. Be advised, this was all based on
China's declarations. None of us thought those were real, but I was
able to watch the numbers and realize what things to look for months
later, when the Global community outside China was recovering. The
Mortality Rates would be telling.
I calculate the mortality rate based on resolved cases. I add the
fatalities and recoveries together, and then divide the fatilities
by that total. This has been challenged by folks who stated, that
they didn't think recoveries were being reported accurately. (or at
all in some instances) I think they had a point. That's another
reason why I don't hang my hat on these numbers. Still, they are
another indicator.
On 04/08, the Global Mortality rate had climbed up to 21.59%.
Yesterday that figure stood at 16.90%. If as folks suggested that
Recoveries were not being reported accurately, that makes this
drop all that much more revealing.
In the Global community outside Mainland China, the Mortality Rate
had risen to 33.10% on 03/20. Yesterday that number stood at 17.53%.
In the United States that number had risen to 40.7% on 04/10.
Yesterday it stood at 25.98%.
Please don't not get the idea these Mortality Rates are valid for
anything more than indicators. I've said this over and over
deaths come in way before recoveries, and we should not use these
to extrapolate what real scientific death rates will be.
We have seen progress in this area also. Just wanted to mention it.
Slice of the Global outside China Cases Pie
We have seen our growth here start to drop for the first time.
Our slice of the global Case load is going down by a very tiny
amount. It's still in the right direction.
Cases Per Population Segment Are Slowing
We are dropping in the numbers of people per case of COVID-19 in
each segment. We dropped just four people yesterday, the smallest
drop yet.
Summation
The take away from all this, is that we are seeing glimmers of hope
in the numbers. I can't say they'll continue to move in the
directions they are, but right now things are looking better.
Section: 02
The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United States of America
Here we go...
The volume of our new cases went up again yesterday. There were
on 657 more than the day before, but more is more. We're looking
for less.
Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases in the United States
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Crital here, courtesy of amorphous
Here's more of our numbers...
Fatalities went up more, and I'll address that below. The nice thing
here is that rise in resolved cases. The vast majority of them are
recoveries, and this plays off against the new cases, so that the
rise in active cases is less than it would be otherwise. Here we
see about 10,500 new cases. Looking up the line we can see much
larger examples of growth. One of these days there won't be daily
growth any longer, but that's still a ways off. It is coming.
Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie
The growth of our Slice of the Pie still keeps growing...
Here are the numbers I've been tracking, Globale Declared and Active Cases.
This was the third day in a row where both categories here dropped. It's
still touch and go here. I'd like to see the drop excellerate. It will.
Section: 03
The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland China
Here is the first set of Data for the Global Outside China
Territories
Once again, we see a very large day in the declaration of new cases.
this was the fourth day of record growth. The next couple of days
should be interesting. Will they both be record days, or are we
about to see a switch in direction? It will probably be the former
over the latter.
This will be touched on again in the area where we highlight the case
reported on the different days of the week. There you can visually see
very clearly how each of the last four days have had record cases
reported.
Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases - Globally, Excluding M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Crital here, courtesy of amorphous
Here we go...
We had over 65,000 Resolved cases yesterday Globally outside China. These
limited the Active Case growth to around 27,600 cases.
How is the Global Community Outside China Doing,
Without U. S. numbers?
Well, a little better yesterday...
The big growth in new Cases took play outside the U. S. today, in the
Global outside China areas.
The valley for this week, isn't exactly a valley. We're facing
some pretty brutal numbers Globally outside China. Our growth
has been noticable, but not near reord breaking.
Growth, particularely for us (the Blue stacks) has gone down.
For your review...
Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U. K.
Case growth.
Lets Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:
The same comments fit for about each day here.
The one big move going on right now, is the U. K. and it's growth in
cases. It's rise in Fatalities is also troubling. It's set to bypass
Italy in Cases within about 36 hours. Lets hope it doesn't do the
same in the number of DPM.
Sweden and It's Neighbors, Who Has the Best Tactic Againt COVID-19?
Sweeden is doing their own thing with regard to isolating. I think most people
are aware of it by now.
Here are some numbers to help us look at this issue.
There's not much new to talk about regarding Sweden, so review the
data and the chart. The chart become less helpful has we see the
per million Case level.
Section: 04
The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*
Mainland China's numbers are 0.01% of today's total global numbers.
A Look at Declared, Resolved, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China
End of day figures follow:
There, we made it to a 40% rate of Declared Cases now resolved. 50% is
in our near future. This number will likely grown for short term at least
Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Crical
Cases Globally, Including M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Crital here, courtesy of amorphous
Not much to say here. Big numbers getting bigger...!
Section: 05
the Mortality Report
Making an effort to provide more mortality numbers these days.
Hopefully these upcoming numbers and charts will help with that.
Our numbers are big enough that they can hide the finer nuances of the
Global numbers outside China. For that reason, I strip our numbers off
that group and report them separately for this area of study.
Here are the figures for the growing case totals for four entities.
Here's the chart to go along with those figures.
Looks pretty ominious there doesn't it.
Here are figures revealing the daily growth for those four entities.
Our respit from large Fatality days is over. Yesterday's 2,534
was the third highest yet, and it tied for that distinction with
the figures from 04/17. On 04/21 we had a 2,825 day. The figure
on 04/16 was solely drive by New York's fiasco, so I won't use
that for comparison.
I really don't like seeing our number there that close to the
number of all Fatalities Globally not counting the U. S. or China's
numbers. Yikes!
Here's two charts to go with the above data.
Not real thrilled with much of anything today.
Here, lets look at data for the U. S. broken out by itself.
Those percentages of increased Fatalities look small, but when they
are playing off other big numbers, it amounts to quite a bit. I do
hope we are spared a big Thurday and Friday this week.
Hey, that's the wrong direction!
Section: 06
Population Saturation
Here are figures revealing how many people in each population base represent one case.
I'm also showing what percent of each population base is infected at this time.
While we are slipping a bit more each day here, that slippage does seem
to be slowing. For now, that's about the only good thing.
Nations With Lots of Cases
At the end of the day yesterday, there were:
That's a whole lot of nations there. With over 1,000 in each one, we know
that over time they are potential declared cases time-bombs.
Daily Case Report Evaluation
I'll be keeping tabs on the daily tallies for days of the week for a while. Folks have
noticed some patterns of larger and smaller data entry on certaind days, and on Fridays
sometimes the numbers get noticably larger because of it.
And we now know Thurdays have potential to break out also. Yikes!
Let's check out the numbers and a chart.
If you look at the stack on the right of Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, and
now Wednesday, you'll see that we had record Cases declared each of
those days.
Tuesday and Wednesday's slope, seems to aim squarely at the highest
numbers we've seen yet in daily growth. Fingers crossed...
Section: 07
The Top 200 Counties in the U. S., by Number of Cases
This little report lists 200 Counties in the United States in declining Case numbers.
There is also a listing that is alphabetical. This report list only the entities
and the number of Cases in the two different sorts.
It will also be available as a downloadable Excel file in Section 12.
Section: 08
States of the Union and the District of Columbia, Compared to Each Other
Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
Some interesting figures there for various segments.
Section: 09
The United States, Where it Ranks With Other Natons?
Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.
The U. S. will be highlighted red here so we can find it easily in the list.
There were 212 nations on this list last night now. I didn't want to post
seven lists with 212 nations on it, so I picked the top 50. Coincidentally,
one report category has the U. S. at 41st, so it wasn't showing up on the
list with 31 top spots on it. That wasn't the reason why I extended the
list length, but it did work out well.
I work on the nations right next to the states on my spreadsheet. The
states with the Disctrict of Columbia come in at a total of 51 lines.
I decided to keep the international reports near that length, and 50
was good enough.
Here we go... for your review.
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
Wow! What happened. This is the lowest we've been since I started
watching this area more closely. Maybe we can break into the 30s
soon.
Section: 10
Here's what it's all about. From January 20th to the present.
This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...
Section: 11
Data for this Report Sourced From:
LINK Johns Hopkins University
The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)
LINK WorldoMeters
LINK You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.
Section: 12
Other Features:
LINK US Counties200, States & DC51, Territories & Other Entities11, and Nations214
Four Excel Spreadsheet datasets you can sort for your own studies...
Section: 13
Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own discression.
LINK Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info
LINK Antibiotic Vitamin, the (Vitamin D)
Good article on Vitamin D's likely role in prevention of infection. Thanks Blam.
LINK CDC Data for Download - Scroll down - Excel required. Includes death stats.
LINK CDC National Center for Health Services
Provisional deaths as determined by review of vital documents. Much lower...
LINK CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around
LINK Coronavirus (COVID-19) Map
LINK Coronavirus infection risk may be reduced by Vitamin D
by Former CDC Chief Dr. Tom Frieden
LINK Coronavirus Spread Quickly Around the Word in Late 2019, Study Shows
the University College London Genetics Institute
LINK COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
New England Journal of Medicine article
LINK Cytokine Storm, med Actemra, Physician near death saved
LINK Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712
LINK Hydroxychloroquine Article: International Poll
Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians
LINK Hydroxychloroquine Has about 90 Percent Chance of Helping COVID-19 Patients
the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons, reports 91.6% of patients improved clinically
LINK IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation
LINK National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)
LINK Nasal Irrigation is the Key, COVID-19 Related
LINK New York City - interesting breakdown, burough, age, sex
LINK On the Origin of CCP Virus, A Documentary Movie (turn up the sound)
Epoch Times: I highly recommend this very well documented report.
LINK Rt COVID-19
Calculates and displays the Rt Factor for each state. Thanks FreedomPoster.
LINK World Health Organization
One thing about “recovery” numbers - our state has come out and said it is not tracking them.
I would guess that after three weeks the old “new” cases are either recovered - or dead.
And as I’ve said before our state is not even testing those sent home with mild symptoms.
If you follow medcrams crucial breakdowns throughout this disaster you will see why people with diabetes need to take this seriously. Last night he brought up adamts13...which involve zinc...a search will show you diabetes people can have a problem with this enzyme..
I wish it had been disclosed if that broadway star who had to have his leg cut off has diabetes.
Thanks once again for your excellent work!
JD
On Wednesday April 1 I began tracking the number of ‘serious, critical’ cases being reported in the USA.
These are the people who may likely die in the next few days.
If the ‘serious, critical’ number goes up, we will likely see more deaths. On the other hand if the various drugs being tested are effective in treating the virus, the ‘serious, critical’ number should go down.
Here are the numbers:
Apr 27 Mon 14186
Apr 28 Tue 15298
Apr 29 Wed 18671
Apr 30 Thu 15226
May 1 Fri 16481
May 2 Sat 16475
May 3 Sun 16139
May 4 Mon 16080
May 5 Tue 16179
May 6 Wed 15827
I have not posted these numbers for a few days as the number of critical/serious cases remains about the same.
I looked at the worldometer website to see how they collect the serious/critical data “ it represents for the most part the number of patients currently being treated in Intensive Care Unit (ICU), if and when this figure is reported.”
What we need to see is a slowdown in the number of people who are serious/critical and a slowdown in the number of people dying.
.
I also truncated the data to keep this posting shorter. Earlier numbers are available in DoughtyOne’s tables.
I see that according to worldometer that the USA has now conducted 8 million corona virus tests.
What we do not know is how many people have been tested.
What we do not know is the number of people who have been tested multiple times.
Doctors, nurses, medical workers, police and fire personnel have been tested multiple times.
Politicians have been tested multiple times.
Patients infected with covid usually get tested a second or third time to determine they are no longer infected.
So yes, the USA may have conducted 8 million tests, but is the number of people tested more like 4 million or less??
No, remember that it takes generally 10-14 days for symptoms to appear and deaths. That places things back to when relaxation was just starting to be discussed. Implementation has only started in just the past few days.
Second - these increases should first appear in the states that are more forward in opening things up - is that the case?
Finally, there are still the persistent reports of inflated numbers, and increased test results of asymptomatic victims.
As of today, the following 10 states + DC are reporting more deaths per million than the 226 deaths per million in the USA as a whole.
The common thread linking these 11 states is Democrat Party leadership and bad management over the past decades.
Yes, I know that occasionally a ‘liberal’ Republican governor gets elected or a ‘liberal’ Republican legislature has the majority, but for most of the years, these 10 states + DC are Democrat Party strongholds.
The numbers speak for themselves. Bad management practices over decades produces bad results.
New York 1,323
New Jersey 965
Connecticut 759
Massachusetts 647
Louisiana 465
Michigan 427
Wash DC 405
Rhode Island 350
Pennsylvania 262
Maryland 239
Illinois 232
USA Total 226
Covid-19 illness can last up to 6 weeks, IIRC. I do not know how states are determining that mild cases have resolved.
Our state is not even testing mild cases.
Only people tested pretty much are 65 and over, those hospitalized with symptoms and first responders.
Show up with mild symptoms and you’re told to go home and shake it off.
“No, remember that it takes...”
______________________________
I think his point was that people have already begun to ignore the “stay at home order” so the timing would be from that.
Also the cases will rise first where the virus is most active not in states which opened up first.
Please correct me.
FLORIDA-—Percent positivity for new cases
This percent is the number of people who test positive for the first time divided by all the people tested that day, excluding people who have previously tested positive.
Florida reported that 3.75% of those people tested for the first time were positive for covid.
FLORIDA results from all testing-——These counts include the number of people for whom the department received laboratory results by day. People tested on multiple days will be included for each day a new result was received. A person is only counted once for each day they are tested, regardless of whether multiple specimens are tested or multiple results are received. If a person has a positive specimen and a negative specimen in the same day, only the positive result is counted.
Whereas, 6.28% of all tests taken were positive.
FReepers, how is your state reporting testing? Is your state giving you similar information?
then you should be able to document that claim, btw, remember to factor in the increased protection level mask requirements and greater safe space enforcement of stores during that same time frame.
bkmk
Please reread that section again.
I touched all the bases related to this issue.
It is opening up related. It is because people were
breaking quarantine and that is related to what it will be
like when we are fully open.
It displays what will happen. That is related to opening up.
Note that I also stated that it is too early to attribute it
to opening up, but it is related.
I recalculated my 40 day projection based on a current 3 day fatality index average (DFI), with consideration given to a 14 day case index lag. I've also raised the ending 40 day daily fatality index from 0.5 to 0.75, due to the obvious problems we're having containing the spread.
The result gives a bit worse outlook than did the 23 April, or 28 April projections, due to the simple fact my ending 0.5% DFI for 1 June is apparently going to be too optimistic.
It is much worse, but not as bad as the 3k deaths per day some others were projecting for the beginning of June. The below projection will greatly change given a cure or improved treatment, or better containment. If case index numbers do rise higher, the next 14 day DFI is somewhat "baked-in" due to deaths lagging case history. In a fortnight, I will run the numbers again, but I'm afraid by then over 100k will be listed as having died from the CV.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html
CDC weekly covid info updated today.
Looking great!
Many deaths are occurring at home.
COVID-NET coverage
COVID-NET comprises 99 counties in the 14 states participating in the Emerging Infections Program (EIP) and the Influenza Hospitalization Surveillance Project (IHSP). Participating states include: California, Colorado, Connecticut, Georgia, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Tennessee, and Utah.
COVID-NET covers approximately 10 percent of the U.S. population. The counties covered are located in all 10 Health and Human Services (HHS) regionsexternal icon. The designated COVID-NET surveillance area is generally similar to the U.S. population by demographics; however, the information might not be generalizable to the entire country.
I'm sticking with my projection. Its been pretty accurate so far. My only question is the accuracy of deaths classified as covid. If there is monetary incentive to write a death up as covid, all bets are off.
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