I recalculated my 40 day projection based on a current 3 day fatality index average (DFI), with consideration given to a 14 day case index lag. I've also raised the ending 40 day daily fatality index from 0.5 to 0.75, due to the obvious problems we're having containing the spread.
The result gives a bit worse outlook than did the 23 April, or 28 April projections, due to the simple fact my ending 0.5% DFI for 1 June is apparently going to be too optimistic.
It is much worse, but not as bad as the 3k deaths per day some others were projecting for the beginning of June. The below projection will greatly change given a cure or improved treatment, or better containment. If case index numbers do rise higher, the next 14 day DFI is somewhat "baked-in" due to deaths lagging case history. In a fortnight, I will run the numbers again, but I'm afraid by then over 100k will be listed as having died from the CV.
