[amorphous]

Thanks for you hard work on these daily updates DoughtyOne.

I recalculated my 40 day projection based on a current 3 day fatality index average (DFI), with consideration given to a 14 day case index lag. I've also raised the ending 40 day daily fatality index from 0.5 to 0.75, due to the obvious problems we're having containing the spread.

The result gives a bit worse outlook than did the 23 April, or 28 April projections, due to the simple fact my ending 0.5% DFI for 1 June is apparently going to be too optimistic.

It is much worse, but not as bad as the 3k deaths per day some others were projecting for the beginning of June. The below projection will greatly change given a cure or improved treatment, or better containment. If case index numbers do rise higher, the next 14 day DFI is somewhat "baked-in" due to deaths lagging case history. In a fortnight, I will run the numbers again, but I'm afraid by then over 100k will be listed as having died from the CV.

[mrsmith]

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html

CDC weekly covid info updated today.
Looking great!

[amorphous]

I made a mistake on the last projection calculated on 7 May, when I added in the case history factor. I should have realized this when the final numbers were much higher than previous projections, but I didn't, this added factor has given me fits. Recent days numbers have dropped significantly for the US and worldwide. I suggest waiting for another day or two past the usual weekend drop, before getting too excited. I added an actual deaths plot line. Below is the corrected version:

Daily fatality index:

Case index offset for daily fatality index - deaths follow over time, barring cure or more efficacious treatment: