Posted on 04/20/2020 6:30:52 AM PDT by Kaslin
As we hunker down under social distancing and stay-at-home orders, the Chinese coronavirus continues to extract a human toll in actual illness, as well as under-reported socio-economic costs. Many businesses are closed, people are not working, not earning an income, unable to socialize with friends and family.
The human tragedy that follows the virus will be horrific. Drug addiction, alcoholism, mental health issues, domestic violence, homelessness, and suicides may extract a toll far worse than the virus. Yet these costs are given scant attention, leaving the focus on ICU beds, hydroxychloroquine, and death counts.
When will the restrictions be lifted? How long until life returns to some semblance of normal? The answers will come from state governors and the president, but how do they know? They have advisors, like the basketball player and scarf queen, who use models, which are simply educated guesses based on certain data and assumptions.
Models aren’t a bad thing, but they have their limits. They follow the expression, “garbage in, garbage out.” Models are used to forecast everything from the weather to stock prices.
For example, models are used to predict hurricanes. Recall the spaghetti line plots preceding every hurricane, each squiggly line based on a particular hurricane model. Some veer into the Gulf of Mexico, others hit South Florida, and others head north to the Carolinas or out to sea. At most, only one line will be correct, but each is based on a model.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
The plan is nothing, planning is everything.
We want to test for antibodies so that we can know how many people have had the virus. But we will never have a test to tell us how many people we lost who never had the virus.
Then we don’t trust them ever again. Cry wolf too many times.
What Happens When the Coronavirus Models are Wrong?
They were wrong from the start but the Despicable Party saw the COVID as another knife they could stick into PDJT. Then the biggest mistake was listening to Dr. Farce (I mean it). His love letters to Hillary should have been a clue as to his loyalties. It was to satisfy his ego that this turned out to be a”pandemic”.
I can see him now every morning looking in the mirror
“Gee look at what I did” with a grin on his face.
Exactly. Like Global Warming, modeling complex systems is not an easy thing.
BTW, what about global warming?
He writes the answer to his own question:
In mid-March, without social distancing, they predicted 2.2 million American deaths. By early April they reduced their death projection to 100,000 to 240,000 assuming social distancing measures in place. Their April 17 update now projects 60,308 deaths, 3% of their original prediction. What changed? Social distancing was in already in place when the death predictions dropped by a factor of four.
The continual drumbeat against social distancing is all based on circular reasoning, begging the question, ignoring the facts before the advocate.
That the model numbers changed between no social distancing and social distancing is not an argument against social distancing, but an argument in favor of it. What happened with social distancing in place is not evidence of how fine things would have been without social distancing.
That social distancing was more effective than was presumed in the model is not an argument against modeling, but an argument that individuals trying to protect themselves did a far better job of social distancing than those running the models presumed [the genius of Americans is being able to do voluntarily what is in their own self-interest and not have to be told in a fascist manner which foot to march out on first when doing the goose step].
Of course we could do what this idiot advocates. Just stop modeling and using models. Let's stop forecasting hurricanes. After all they never get it really just right spot on. Of course a lot of us would like to know whether we have a .001% chance of being directly striken and a 30% chance, which hurricane models are pretty darn good at, actually. Do I go about my business or do I board up my windows and skip town. While there are no 100% right answers, there are 100% wrong answers.
Monday morning waterboy trying to be relevant
What Happens When the Global Warming Models are Wrong?
Bill Gates will never move on and neither will Al Gore Junior
>>That social distancing was more effective than was presumed in the model is not an argument against modeling
they ere entirely against Trump’s travel restrictions and the WHO still opposes them
https://www.who.int/bulletin/volumes/92/12/14-135590/en/
Travel restrictions were included in the WHO interim protocol: rapid operations to contain the initial emergence of pandemic influenza that was published in 2007 by the World Health Organization (WHO).1
However, as they would hamper global travel and trade, such restrictions are not recommended by WHO once the global spread of pandemic influenza is established.
In 2009, some countries applied travel restrictions as one of several strategies to prevent the introduction of the influenza virus A(H1N1)pdm09 into their territories but the effectiveness of this approach has subsequently been questioned.
The personal financial damage will also be longlasting for some.
Fauci is like a loose cannon rolling around on the deck. Why he is allowed to “shoot offf” his mouth is beyond me.
The task force needs to speak with one voice. That’s basic communications management 101.
Well, Andy,
Your suggestion regarding weather forecasting etc is silly and not even related. Meteorology has a really good record at predicting the “epidemic” and a really strong record of predicting when and where and even how long. These covid19 models had no supporting data, and evidence is rising that the virus had been running around the US probably before October, with infection rates and illness being absorbed into presumptive flu cases.... Antibodies present in exponential numbers compared to what the modelers estimate ( Stanford, Iceland, Boston etc).
We all get it- the models had lots of knowledge, information and assessment gaps, but the argument that they were the useful for policy making is weak. Trump had options I suppose, why he chose these deep state persons ( Fauci-progressivist ad nauseum) as advisors many of us are wondering.... I think he’ll will have to answer this question sooner than later.
Anyway,
When models, even updated models, show a correction of minus 97%, it strongly suggests the early models and policy derived thereof was not only absurdly wrong, but maybe even malicious and negligent. Of course, the good scientists/modelers at the think tank get paid, but the buck stops with the decision maker- Mr. Trump; just a nice gift for the left in time for the summer debates ( not that Joe is gonna even know his name by then).
never let a crisis go to waste.
and the public will fall for it
***************
Proving once again that you can fool most of the people most of the time. All it takes is pandering lies that tell people what they want to hear.
Fauci the Farce has been the instigator of this whole fiasco.
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