What does the U.S. face without CV19 mitigation?

[nagant]

Country	Tot Cases	Cases/1M Pop	Tot Deaths	Deaths/1M Pop	Deaths/Cases
Spain	152,446	3,261	15,238	326	10.0%
Italy	143,626	2,375	18,279	302	12.7%
France	117,749	1,804	12,210	187	10.4%
USA	462,391	1,397	16,454	50	3.6%
Germany	116,801	1,394	2,451	29	2.1%
UK	65,077	959	7,978	118	12.3%
Iran	66,220	788	4,110	49	6.2%
World	1,593,515	204	95,047	12.2	6.0%
S. Korea	10,423	203	204	4	2.0%

Data source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

[volunbeer]

In fairness to everyone on both sides of the argument - there is simply not enough data to form conclusions because of the unknowns. Until we test a huge representative sample of people regionally we will not be able to make such sweeping conclusions given that upwards of 80% of people are asymptomatic and are unlikely to be tested.

We will also NOT be able to use one set of data nationwide. The regional fluctuation means that numbers in NYC for example will not fit Fargo, ND, or Seattle will not fit the rest of Washington state.

This is my frustration with the doom doctors at the daily briefings. They are grasping at every bit of data, but what does it really tell us without sufficient testing? They are spitting out the only numbers they have, but they are not sufficient in my opinion to make long term projections.

[FreedomNotSafety]

You added a column and a bunch nonsensical comments.

[spintreebob]

The US is the size of many smaller countries within it, both by population and geography. So we should compare New York to a New York size country. Texas to a Texas size country. Washington to a Washington size country.

But it is even more specific than that. New York Metro is not typical of New York state. In reverse, sparsely populated SW GA is not typical of Georgia.

Basing conclusions on composite numbers of different facts is not the best way to look at reality.

[FreedomNotSafety]

“... upwards of 80% of people are asymptomatic...”

Isn’t that as you said a “sweeping comment”?

[nagant]

“You added a column and a bunch nonsensical comments.”

Do the Deaths/Cases column math for yourself, and tell us what you get.

[volunbeer]

It illustrates my point.... we do not know. We have lots and lots of numbers all over the place, but what do they really mean and how accurate are they when extrapolated onto a population where only 1% have been tested? What if it is 10% or 90% who are asymptomatic?

That one number changes everything and we do not know.

[cgbg]

there is simply not enough data to form conclusions because of the unknowns.

Exactly.

"Experts" who claim such knowledge and ignorant fools who claim such knowledge are both part of the problem and not part of the solution.

[FreedomNotSafety]

The same as you but as I have been saying your comments are illogical.

You made several stupid leaps to conclude that we would have 39,000,000 deaths. Or did you even bother with the math?

[FreedomNotSafety]

Let me get this straight you said not to make sweeping comments but then went on to make one anyway which you now say proves your point?

[CharlesWayneCT]

UK has not been overwhelmed

[FreedomNotSafety]

So I will now give myself a moron award for basic math. Remember to move the decimal when multiplying by a percentage.

[DoodleBob]

Well, I'd say we have a healthy balance of freedom and safety. For example, many of us work for a company or someone else. Very few of us own our own business. That reflects a trade-off between economic freedom and economic safety. Everyone's utility curve reflects these choices. But to the extent most of us work for 'the man,' we have chosen safety over freedom.

In contrast, in many other countries, working for the State is something to which people aspire. In America, while we love our public servants like the mailman and LEOs, most of us don't want to grow up and be a bureaucrat. Even if we place undue reverence for rock stars, movie stars, or Bill Gates, they AREN'T the government.

We're a complicated group of people, we Americans. Other countries tell us what they don't like about us...the left agrees with them, while we hold their dislike as a badge of honor.

[Steve Van Doorn]

said, "overall population death rate of 12%"

you have got to be joking right? Some kind of troll?

There are no statistics that can come to that rate of death of the overall population.

You're simply conflating rate of death of those tested and rate of death of the infected. It's not the same thing

[Steve Van Doorn]

worldometers == statistics out of Shanghai china

[impimp]

An overall population death rate of 12%? - 40 million dead in USA? Hyperbole much?

[nagant]

“UK has not been overwhelmed”

Apparently the UK’s healthcare system has been overwhelmed in spite of any overall population virus prevalence.

[nagant]

“you have got to be joking right? Some kind of troll?
There are no statistics that can come to that rate of death of the overall population.
You’re simply conflating rate of death of those tested and rate of death of the infected. It’s not the same thing”

Read my title post again. If we take away all restraints,and CV19 infects 100% of our population, and our medical system gets overwhelmed, we could be looking at up to 12% of our poplation dying .....if Italy’s and the UK’s current deaths/cases ratio is an indicator.

[aft_lizard]

That’s not what he is saying. That’s just your spurious interpretation. He’s talking about if the mitigation didn’t take and our system is overwhelmed. That’s not the same as saying everybody gets it.And since you are intent on asking for qualifications I am an expert in virology and population risk mitigation. I predicted that 44k would die here in the US in February. I’m still sticking with that. If you allowed community spread with the amount of fat, out of shape Americans out there the number would shock us all.

[volunbeer]

Yes. That number has been thrown around so I pulled it out of the same place every other number has come from to make the point. Nobody knows how many people have it because we don’t know how many are asymptomatic. We know an asymptomatic person can still spread the virus so until we get better numbers across the board for each region it is pointless to set here and argue with one another about the numbers because we don’t know what percentage of our population carries the virus with no symptoms or diagnosis.

I am not here to argue with you or anyone else. Everyone (me included) is trying to wrap our heads around this thing with incomplete data. Those in charge are basing decisions on this flawed data and making recommendations to the entire country when a person like me on acreage in the country is likely less at risk than a person in NYC who rides the subway every day based on less exposure.

[Steve Van Doorn]

The tipping point mathematically speaking where the infection rate gets out of hand and can't be contained it 1% of the Total population. The estimates in Europe as of last month is 1 to 11% of the total population has the virus

Which means in time we will all get this virus that is inevitable at this point. Most of us will get it before these highly questionable vaccines come out.

There are ways to boost your immunity keyed against this virus and you will likely be fine.