Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

What does the U.S. face without CV19 mitigation?

Posted on 04/09/2020 4:53:59 PM PDT by nagant

Country Tot Cases Cases/1M Pop Tot Deaths Deaths/1M Pop Deaths/Cases
Spain 152,446 3,261 15,238 326 10.0%
Italy 143,626 2,375 18,279 302 12.7%
France 117,749 1,804 12,210 187 10.4%
USA 462,391 1,397 16,454 50 3.6%
Germany 116,801 1,394 2,451 29 2.1%
UK 65,077 959 7,978 118 12.3%
Iran 66,220 788 4,110 49 6.2%
World 1,593,515 204 95,047 12.2 6.0%
S. Korea 10,423 203 204 4 2.0%

Data source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries


TOPICS: Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: buonasera; fudgiethewhale; hangry; haveasnickers; hugsarefree; hungryhungryhippo; mathiscool; theloveboat
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-50 next last
To: nagant

In fairness to everyone on both sides of the argument - there is simply not enough data to form conclusions because of the unknowns. Until we test a huge representative sample of people regionally we will not be able to make such sweeping conclusions given that upwards of 80% of people are asymptomatic and are unlikely to be tested.

We will also NOT be able to use one set of data nationwide. The regional fluctuation means that numbers in NYC for example will not fit Fargo, ND, or Seattle will not fit the rest of Washington state.

This is my frustration with the doom doctors at the daily briefings. They are grasping at every bit of data, but what does it really tell us without sufficient testing? They are spitting out the only numbers they have, but they are not sufficient in my opinion to make long term projections.


21 posted on 04/09/2020 5:24:03 PM PDT by volunbeer (Find the truth and accept it - anything else is delusional)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: nagant

You added a column and a bunch nonsensical comments.


22 posted on 04/09/2020 5:25:06 PM PDT by FreedomNotSafety (9)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: nagant

The US is the size of many smaller countries within it, both by population and geography. So we should compare New York to a New York size country. Texas to a Texas size country. Washington to a Washington size country.

But it is even more specific than that. New York Metro is not typical of New York state. In reverse, sparsely populated SW GA is not typical of Georgia.

Basing conclusions on composite numbers of different facts is not the best way to look at reality.


23 posted on 04/09/2020 5:27:31 PM PDT by spintreebob
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: volunbeer

“... upwards of 80% of people are asymptomatic...”

Isn’t that as you said a “sweeping comment”?


24 posted on 04/09/2020 5:28:06 PM PDT by FreedomNotSafety (9)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 21 | View Replies]

To: FreedomNotSafety

“You added a column and a bunch nonsensical comments.”

Do the Deaths/Cases column math for yourself, and tell us what you get.


25 posted on 04/09/2020 5:29:51 PM PDT by nagant
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 22 | View Replies]

To: FreedomNotSafety

It illustrates my point.... we do not know. We have lots and lots of numbers all over the place, but what do they really mean and how accurate are they when extrapolated onto a population where only 1% have been tested? What if it is 10% or 90% who are asymptomatic?

That one number changes everything and we do not know.


26 posted on 04/09/2020 5:33:20 PM PDT by volunbeer (Find the truth and accept it - anything else is delusional)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 24 | View Replies]

To: volunbeer
there is simply not enough data to form conclusions because of the unknowns.

Exactly.

"Experts" who claim such knowledge and ignorant fools who claim such knowledge are both part of the problem and not part of the solution.
27 posted on 04/09/2020 5:33:23 PM PDT by cgbg (Pattern recognition is the first sign of intelligence.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 21 | View Replies]

To: nagant

The same as you but as I have been saying your comments are illogical.

You made several stupid leaps to conclude that we would have 39,000,000 deaths. Or did you even bother with the math?


28 posted on 04/09/2020 5:33:32 PM PDT by FreedomNotSafety (9)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies]

To: volunbeer

Let me get this straight you said not to make sweeping comments but then went on to make one anyway which you now say proves your point?


29 posted on 04/09/2020 5:39:11 PM PDT by FreedomNotSafety (9)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 26 | View Replies]

To: nagant

UK has not been overwhelmed


30 posted on 04/09/2020 5:44:25 PM PDT by CharlesWayneCT
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: FreedomNotSafety

So I will now give myself a moron award for basic math. Remember to move the decimal when multiplying by a percentage.


31 posted on 04/09/2020 5:49:04 PM PDT by FreedomNotSafety (9)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: walkingdead
Well, I'd say we have a healthy balance of freedom and safety. For example, many of us work for a company or someone else. Very few of us own our own business. That reflects a trade-off between economic freedom and economic safety. Everyone's utility curve reflects these choices. But to the extent most of us work for 'the man,' we have chosen safety over freedom.

In contrast, in many other countries, working for the State is something to which people aspire. In America, while we love our public servants like the mailman and LEOs, most of us don't want to grow up and be a bureaucrat. Even if we place undue reverence for rock stars, movie stars, or Bill Gates, they AREN'T the government.

We're a complicated group of people, we Americans. Other countries tell us what they don't like about us...the left agrees with them, while we hold their dislike as a badge of honor.

32 posted on 04/09/2020 5:50:10 PM PDT by DoodleBob (Gravity's waiting period is about 9.8 m/s^2)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 20 | View Replies]

To: nagant
said, "overall population death rate of 12%"

you have got to be joking right? Some kind of troll?

There are no statistics that can come to that rate of death of the overall population.

You're simply conflating rate of death of those tested and rate of death of the infected. It's not the same thing

33 posted on 04/09/2020 6:15:18 PM PDT by Steve Van Doorn (*in my best Eric Cartman voice* 'I love you, guys')
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: nagant

worldometers == statistics out of Shanghai china


34 posted on 04/09/2020 6:16:25 PM PDT by Steve Van Doorn (*in my best Eric Cartman voice* 'I love you, guys')
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: nagant

An overall population death rate of 12%? - 40 million dead in USA? Hyperbole much?


35 posted on 04/09/2020 6:23:44 PM PDT by impimp
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: CharlesWayneCT

“UK has not been overwhelmed”

Apparently the UK’s healthcare system has been overwhelmed in spite of any overall population virus prevalence.


36 posted on 04/09/2020 6:39:50 PM PDT by nagant
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 30 | View Replies]

To: Steve Van Doorn

“you have got to be joking right? Some kind of troll?
There are no statistics that can come to that rate of death of the overall population.
You’re simply conflating rate of death of those tested and rate of death of the infected. It’s not the same thing”

Read my title post again. If we take away all restraints,and CV19 infects 100% of our population, and our medical system gets overwhelmed, we could be looking at up to 12% of our poplation dying .....if Italy’s and the UK’s current deaths/cases ratio is an indicator.


37 posted on 04/09/2020 6:51:34 PM PDT by nagant
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 33 | View Replies]

To: FreedomNotSafety

That’s not what he is saying. That’s just your spurious interpretation. He’s talking about if the mitigation didn’t take and our system is overwhelmed. That’s not the same as saying everybody gets it.And since you are intent on asking for qualifications I am an expert in virology and population risk mitigation. I predicted that 44k would die here in the US in February. I’m still sticking with that. If you allowed community spread with the amount of fat, out of shape Americans out there the number would shock us all.


38 posted on 04/09/2020 7:14:20 PM PDT by aft_lizard
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: FreedomNotSafety

Yes. That number has been thrown around so I pulled it out of the same place every other number has come from to make the point. Nobody knows how many people have it because we don’t know how many are asymptomatic. We know an asymptomatic person can still spread the virus so until we get better numbers across the board for each region it is pointless to set here and argue with one another about the numbers because we don’t know what percentage of our population carries the virus with no symptoms or diagnosis.

I am not here to argue with you or anyone else. Everyone (me included) is trying to wrap our heads around this thing with incomplete data. Those in charge are basing decisions on this flawed data and making recommendations to the entire country when a person like me on acreage in the country is likely less at risk than a person in NYC who rides the subway every day based on less exposure.


39 posted on 04/09/2020 7:24:27 PM PDT by volunbeer (Find the truth and accept it - anything else is delusional)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 29 | View Replies]

To: nagant
The tipping point mathematically speaking where the infection rate gets out of hand and can't be contained it 1% of the Total population. The estimates in Europe as of last month is 1 to 11% of the total population has the virus

Which means in time we will all get this virus that is inevitable at this point. Most of us will get it before these highly questionable vaccines come out.

There are ways to boost your immunity keyed against this virus and you will likely be fine.

40 posted on 04/09/2020 8:11:20 PM PDT by Steve Van Doorn (*in my best Eric Cartman voice* 'I love you, guys')
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 37 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-50 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson