Coronavirus mapping site's predictions 'have fallen short‘

World Net Daily ^ | March 25, 2020 | WND Staff

[fwdude]

A major source of information upon which government leaders have relied to urge or order the canceling of public events, shut down of businesses and sheltering in place has proved to be inaccurate.

The Federalist's Madeline Osburn points out many members of the media and state officials are relying on an online mapping tool called COVID Act Now.

The site, with a map of catastrophic forecasts for each state, boasts of enabling "political leaders to quickly make decisions in their Coronavirus response informed by best available data and modeling."

"But a closer look at how many of COVID Act Now's predictions have already fallen short, and how they became a ubiquitous resource across the country overnight, suggests something more sinister," Osburn wrote.

[lgjhn23]

“...well if you think I’m happy that my 6 figure loss in my 401K helped to stem the covid, you’d be wrong....”

Agree. Right there with ya. What’s really gonna be agitating is if/when we find out that we’ve been had because of all the panic and negative overhype. That will be the cherry on the frosting.

[Robert DeLong]

https://www.covidactnow.org/

[PGalt]

Thanks for posting. People can still write opposing OPINIONS? Well...not so much.

“suggests something more sinister,” Osburn wrote.”

13 levels below EVIL. Wretched Whitless...I’m glad they mentioned Michigan’s governor.

[Ken H]

“I am so tired of the unending Corona Virus articles. Can we declare a on week Corona Virus Sabbatical? If we stopped talking about it we might figure out how overhyped it really is.”

_____

Disagree. With the left pushing for a full-blown panic, that would be ceding the field to them.

[gogeo]

We should rise to the most infected tested country in the world in about a week.

[zeestephen]

Re: “14,024 is the highest number of new cases reported by a single country in one day since the coronavirus pandemic began.”

Adjusted for population, it is not the highest number.

Also...

China is pathologically deceitful - According to the data, Italy has more than twice as many deaths as China, and almost the same number of infections as China. No serious person can believe that China's numbers are accurate.

Also...

COVID-19 has been in the USA for two months.

Seasonal influenza has been in the USA for 5.5 months.

Minimum CDC Estimates for Seasonal influenza...

Cases - 38 million

Deaths - 23,000

Finally...

The USA COVID-19 "Case Fatality Rate" has held steady between 1.2% and 1.5% for almost three weeks.

That number will decline significantly when massive wide scale USA testing begins to capture the huge percentage of non-infected Americans in the data.

Bottom Line...

We did not shut down the country to prevent 23,000 influenza deaths.

Why did we shut it down to prevent far fewer deaths from COVID-19?

[Swirl]

“How many cases have closed?”

According to John Hopkins
616 is the reported number of recoveries in the U.S.
https://coronamap.org/

[proust]

“Adjusted for population, it is not the highest number.”

You can take any number and adjust it for anything, if you want. Why not adjust it for the world population and make it even lower?

[Valpal1]

I checked that site out a few days ago and it predicted Oregon would have more in ICU than we had actual confirmed cases. It was obvious the model was completely useless.

Not surprised that it is in fact a dem disinformation campaign.

[socalgop]

Italy’s numbers are doing that because everyone is sheltering in place. The models are telling us what will happen if we don’t act so we can avoid that outcome.

[zeestephen]

Re: Close to half a million have now been tested.

Is that from a national ledger?

Johns Hopkins does not post the number of tests.

Can you send me your link, if you have one?

Thanks.

[Greetings_Puny_Humans]

Assuming it isn’t a hoax, the drop in cases in Italy and other places can be attributed to quarantine.

But Denninger over at the Market Ticker thinks Quarantines won’t stop the virus anyway. It’ll just come back once the quarantine relaxes, and that the only solution is mass vaccination—a technical impossibility—or herd immunity, the latter requiring us to let the virus go through us while protecting the elderly and the very young, but otherwise returning to our normal daily life so as to avoid an even worse problem: economic collapse.

Though Denninger also has come to the conclusion lately that the virus isn’t nearly as dangerous as claimed and that more testing will show we’re already near the end of it.

[The Pack Knight]

Yes, indeed it is. The “flatten the curve” chart plastered all over the internet also comes from them. I was already pretty suspicious when I looked into them the other day and saw who was involved, and the Federalist article includes even more reasons to be skeptical.

[DoughtyOne]

Neither have I.

I'm not faulting him, but I believe his hand was forced due to the
media getting ready to trash him mercilessly unless he went all in.

The demoⁿⁱcRats were all poised to do the same thing.

I'm not convinced some of this shelter in place was wise, but if he
hadn't gone that route, he would have been skewered.

I'm watching the numbers very closely, and they continue to grow
unabated.

For instance today, we had the largest growth to date at 13,940 so
far. We have another hour to go. The closest to this was 11,263 on
Monday.

Have we stopped anything? It's hard to see what.

Once something like this gets loose in the general populace, I'm hard
pressed to spot anything that can truly stop it.

There's still time for this tactic to reveal positive effects.
Perhaps we'll see a big drop starting tomorrow. Perhaps not.

I'm pretty well convinced that this exists in much larger numbers than
we know, and that a low grade version of it is rampant out there.

I'm still not sold on the idea we're up to speed on testing.

I'm still not sold on the idea the mortality rate is ten times higher
than other things including the flu.

I say that because the people who only have very mild symptoms are
not being tabulated into the mix, to give a proper perspective on
mortality.

What we're winding up with > IMO < is the worst case scenario, that
just isn't accurate.

Am I right? Perhaps. Perhaps not. Will we ever know? I'm not sure that
we will.

This is something I predicted in part, when people were trashing China
for the reporting it was sending out. I predicted we would not see the
full picture here either. Some people (perhaps the very worst) show up
at the hospital. Others stay home for a few days, and they're well.
There's only so much we can do to document the cases, and I do not think
that is limited to COVID-19. It's just how things go. Again > IMO.

I'm still finding information on the Diamond Princess that fascinates me.
The dire reports from that ship had us thinking a lot of people were
going to contract the disease and die. It just didn't turn out that
way. Here is an article I dug up in the last 36 hours. It is a preliminary
report of stats, in that (from memory) here, address the case at about
the 630 case point. (It went up to 712)

It's a fairly interesting read. I think it covers things rather nicely.

I'm also hearing that Italy is counting a lot of deaths as COVID-19 related
that might not be that at all. That could be why things look so dire
there.

For the time being, it looks like massive new cases per day. Globally there
have been 48,662 new cases as I type.

Here's a link to the Diamond Princess Article.

[The Pack Knight]

Though Denninger also has come to the conclusion lately that the virus isn’t nearly as dangerous as claimed and that more testing will show we’re already near the end of it.

The more I hear about the number of positive tests among people with mild symptoms, the more I think that's right.

What they need to do is test a large random sampling of people without regard to symptoms and risk factors and see how many come back positive. If it's a lot, then we know we can call off the shutdowns.

[Yardstick]

Has the feel of global warming in microcosm.

[cba123]

China apparently did.

[comebacknewt]

That is definitely one reasonable explanation.

May not be the only one though.

Time will tell.

[lepton]

The USA COVID-19 “Case Fatality Rate” has held steady between 1.2% and 1.5% for almost three weeks.
That number will decline significantly when massive wide scale USA testing begins to capture the huge percentage of non-infected Americans in the data.

---

And rise when people have had it long enough to die.

Case Fatality rate is only useful under two conditions:

1) where people who are going to die from the disease do so nearly immediately upon being detected as having the disease.

2) After the outbreak, or at least the cohort, has completely ended.

Or else what you are really measuring is speed of spread. As long as the speed of spread is growing consistently, the case fatality rate will be relatively stable. When the disease begins to limit, the case fatality rate will rise to it’s actual ratio.

Because of the extreme length between symptom/detection and death, and then a further length to recovery, there is a sort of flattened ‘S’ shape added to the also-flattened upside-down Bell-curve of the case fatality rate during the outbreak.

[Ymani Cricket]

Osburn said the "bogus data sets ... scare local and state officials into making rash, economy-killing mandates."

The fact is, this was all about destroying Trump and the Trump economy.