Posted on 03/25/2020 4:09:57 AM PDT by Kaslin
How a handful of Democratic activists created alarming, but bogus data sets to scare local and state officials into making rash, economy-killing mandates.
As U.S. state and local officials halt the economy and quarantine their communities over the Wuhan virus crisis, one would hope our leaders were making such major decisions based on well-sourced data and statistical analysis. That is not the case.
A scan of statements made by media, state governors, local leaders, county judges, and more show many relying on the same source, an online mapping tool called COVID Act Now. The website says it is “built to enable political leaders to quickly make decisions in their Coronavirus response informed by best available data and modeling.”
An interactive map provides users a catastrophic forecast for each state, should they wait to implement COVID Act Now’s suggested strict measures to “flatten the curve.” But a closer look at how many of COVID Act Now’s predictions have already fallen short, and how they became a ubiquitous resource across the country overnight, suggests something more sinister.
When Dallas County Judge Clay Jenkins announced a shelter-in-place order on Dallas County Sunday, he displayed COVID Act Now graphs with predictive outcomes after three months if certain drastic measures are taken. The NBC Dallas affiliate also embedded the COVID Act Now models in their story on the mandate.
The headline of an NBC Oregon affiliate featured COVID Act Now data, and a headline blaring, “Coronavirus model sees Oregon hospitals overwhelmed by mid-April.” Both The Oregonian and The East Oregonian also published stories featuring the widely shared data predicting a “point of no return.”
(Excerpt) Read more at thefederalist.com ...
But gooberment officials here said that wearing a mask could be worse than wearing no protection at all.
True dat.
And it's important for folks to understand that today's deaths in a given area correlate to the new confirmed cases from 2 weeks before.
Here is the national mortality rate over the last few days
1.94%
1.77%
1.62%
1.48%
1.33%
1.29%
1.36%
1.27%
1.42%
1.45%
If we go back to work and only 10 million people get this disease, we are talking 1.3 million people dead
Central Florida and especially Orange county are democrat wastelands. The commissioner is Jerry Demmings, former Orlando chief of police, dem of course. His wife is my congressman, Val Demmings of the Collusion Hoax. She was Orange county Sherriff when he was the police chief and had her revolver stolen out of her unlocked squad car. She just quit as sheriff one day, for no apparent reason.
covid19 good graphic bkmk
10,000,000 x 1.3% (0.013) = 130,000, not 1.3 million.
presumes no change in mitigation effectiveness over time(?) which might not accurately track reality(?)
The ability of this virus to KILL and the operative word here is KILL is limited in HUGE part to the elderly and those with 2 or more exidting serious health problems. Are there exceptions? Of course there always are.
Destroying the economy and along with it the futures of millions and millions of people is NOT worth the effort of saving a few and even THOUSANDS of lives as long as so many other measures are available.
Let the elderly and otherwise health challenged self isolate (I am one as is my wife) and as for the young and healthy let them go back to work. Everyone can practice social distancing and everyone if they feel poorly can stay home. Some whose affliction is worthy of a test can be tested and if positive they can be medicated (and sent home.
This whole thing is obviously and deliberately over hyped.
who said hoax? Interesting that the pearl clutchers always have to claim us skeptics are calling it a hoax. No one is calling it a hoax, we are calling it an over-hyped event in which the ‘cure’ is going to be way more devastating then the event itself.
AGAIN.... 19000 folks died from H1N1 in the U.S. and it was a blip on the national news cycle.
Perspective.
Weeks ago the freeper snowflake pearl-clutchers were telling me just to wait a couple of weeks and I’d be eating my words. Sorry 2 weeks later and I’m still on my way to vindication.
There were people on Long Island who refused to “black out” even while there were U boats just lying offshore...
all along, the data has been to thin to support the action
wastoute wrote:
“It’s why I have been telling people to expect what was coming. Now it’s here. Every bit of it was to be expected. Up to next Monday (roughly) when we can see what we have accomplished with isolation the impact of which is going to be several orders of magnitude greater than any drugs no matter how effective. Isolation is the key.”
Many thanks for posting!
Your example is not even remotely applicable here.
If I gave the raw numbers that are used to produce these graphs to everyone,
how many do you think could draw the graphs themselves?
And if I asked these people to define basic terms about probabilities and frequencies and distributions,
how many would get any of the definitions correct?
But people believe and act on - and want everyone else to act on - these “received messages.”
(btw, the Russian word for “received messages” is Izvestia.)
And they believe them because they are The Truth.
(btw, the Russian word for the Truth is Pravda.)
We are up against the limits of human intelligence and gullibility.
Even Americans are very easily manipulated.
We are living in the midst of a spooked herd of sheep.
It has been known for almost a millennia that quarantine is the most (and until recently only) effective thing you can do. In the past the reason to act quickly to an epidemic was because if you failed to your neighbor would swoop in and take everything while you were on your back. Quarantine has been a military maneuver more than anything else, historically. In a global world, when everybody is on their back you could make a case that we should just let everything go to hell and wait to pickup the pieces. I understand that is their strategy in Denmark. We probably could have absorbed the blow but it would certainly have been devastating. What we are doing, unfortunately, is the best of a bunch of poor alternatives.
https://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3828078/posts?page=1#1
From the Federalist, a different view.
Maybe HQ+Zpac will be a miracle cure.
Barring that, only massive self quarantine can slow the spread of CV, and that kills the economy.
1918-level pandemic, or have a depression.
There are no good choices.
Democrat activists are using this as a way to get more government power, and more funding for the Left. They hunger for that $2 trillion pork package.
If Trump signs it, it will ensure the dominance of the Left.
It’s exactly the same. The very thing flubros are doing. I would expect JimRob to start kicking them out.
of course now the new bill that passed ensures everyone gets 100% of their pay for 4 months.... so the only ones who are going to be itching and needing to get back to work are the small business owners like myself. Hell, why work when you can get paid the same staying at home and watching netflix.
this is beyond insane.
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