Inaccurate Virus Models Are Panicking Officials Into Ill-Advised Lockdowns

The Federalist ^ | March 25, 2020 | Madeline Osburn

[Kaslin]

How a handful of Democratic activists created alarming, but bogus data sets to scare local and state officials into making rash, economy-killing mandates.

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As U.S. state and local officials halt the economy and quarantine their communities over the Wuhan virus crisis, one would hope our leaders were making such major decisions based on well-sourced data and statistical analysis. That is not the case.

A scan of statements made by media, state governors, local leaders, county judges, and more show many relying on the same source, an online mapping tool called COVID Act Now. The website says it is “built to enable political leaders to quickly make decisions in their Coronavirus response informed by best available data and modeling.”

An interactive map provides users a catastrophic forecast for each state, should they wait to implement COVID Act Now’s suggested strict measures to “flatten the curve.” But a closer look at how many of COVID Act Now’s predictions have already fallen short, and how they became a ubiquitous resource across the country overnight, suggests something more sinister.

When Dallas County Judge Clay Jenkins announced a shelter-in-place order on Dallas County Sunday, he displayed COVID Act Now graphs with predictive outcomes after three months if certain drastic measures are taken. The NBC Dallas affiliate also embedded the COVID Act Now models in their story on the mandate.

The headline of an NBC Oregon affiliate featured COVID Act Now data, and a headline blaring, “Coronavirus model sees Oregon hospitals overwhelmed by mid-April.” Both The Oregonian and The East Oregonian also published stories featuring the widely shared data predicting a “point of no return.”

[BDParrish]

If they give them zinc with it. I hope hope hope

[wastoute]

I don’t care what the cocktail is or the doses or anything. I just want to see some evidence it works. Anecdotes are not evidence. Even 1,000 collected anecdotes that weren’t followed for the appropriate length of time are just 1,000 anecdotes.

[BDParrish]

Remember the Jewish Doc used the zinc supplement too. It needs zinc. Also he was giving it early to outpatients. But there is reason to hope.

[BDParrish]

I saw a French study which showed no extra benefit. No z-pack and no zinc was used so of course no effect.

[BuckeyeGOP]

Two weeks ago, Ohio supposedly had 100,000+ cases. Either 100,000 survived coronavirus without treatment AND without significant symptoms, or Dr Acton and the Idiot Gov Devine are in a competition to see who is the most stupid!
_____________________________________________________

YES! I almost forgot about that. You are correct, Dr. Grim Reaper Acton did in fact claim that there were 100k cases in Ohio. Thanks for the reminder.

[BDParrish]

Hoping for some real evidence soon, here’s what I know (I think).
Chloroquine the older more toxic form had been observed to interfere with replication in vitro with SARS 1. All that work was suspended with the end of that pandemic in 02 IIRC. The Chinese doctors did not have access to CQ you can still get it in Africa and other places, but they tried HCQ thinking it is enough the same why not? They observed the same effect reported in the SARS work. Giving it to patients in China they reported mixed results.

Bill Still reported the name of a doctor who theorized about the zinc. CQ is known as a zinc ionophore. He said that explained the recovery numbers out of South Korea that they have been using it. This zinc aspect makes it dangerous right?

HCQ has three effects please correct me, as an anti-inflammatory and is in daily clinical use for this, as an RdRP inhibitor on its own, and as I said as a zinc ionophore. It can use existing zinc but so many seniors are deficient in this. So the zinc supplement is needed. The z-pack was given to forestall secondary infections but if it has some synergy with the HCQ, I cannot tell how that would work chemically.

The recent French study using HCQ alone did not show any extra benefit. No zinc and no z-pack. It won’t be hard to test this Jewish doctors results. I really want to know what happens when all three are used in the ccu. Plaquenil is contraindicated with a list of meds used by the elderly, heart patients, and cancer so this will not be a panacea. It will be disappointing if this promising therapy is forbidden to some who most need it.

Thanks in advance for correction and comment. I know enough about this stuff to get in way over my head. I will appreciate correction and contradiction.

[wastoute]

Wow. I’m not a pharmacist and the molecular biology of quinine has NEVER been of interest to me, trust me. I understand the words “disease”, “drug”, “cure”, “epidemic”, etc. “Zinc pores”. Never heard of it. Clinically, you really don’t have to understand how a drug works but you damn well better understand if it does or not. Knowing how makes you shine at “Journal CLub” and makes the Chairman proud of you. I haven’t been to a “Journal CLub” in a decade at least.

[wastoute]

I try to stay out of water over my head when it came to my profession. I still remember being amazed when our team pharmacist explained the way Acyclovir kills children’s kidney is by crystallizing in the Nephrons. I was amazed he knew that. All I knew was “Don’t do it”.

[wardaddy]

No kidding

Nashville is in lockdown . Because

257 confirmed cases

4 hospitalizations

I think one died

For that we have a lockdown

The. Case and death toll from the flu is exponentially worse here yet nobody dare say that

It’s insanity

[BDParrish]

😆!

[Capt. Tom]

snip..I think one died
For that we have a lockdown
The. Case and death toll from the flu is exponentially worse here yet nobody dare say that
It’s insanity

At this time, in the known history of covid19, IMHO we should not be using drastic reactions to this virus ,like lockdowns. -Tom

[ReaganGeneration2]

“Great question! Do you have better data?”

Yes: China. S Korea, Japan...

[Fred Nerks]

easy enough to find:

https://www.theepochtimes.com/the-closing-of-21-million-cell-phone-accounts-in-china-may-suggest-a-high-ccp-virus-death-toll_3281291.html

[Fred Nerks]

hydroxychloroquine

azithromycin

in combination

[Does so]

Too convenient.

[SandwicheGuy]

Trying to not hurt your feelings, but you do grasp that people die? Every day? For many reasons? But now all the dead people die of flu... You can’t make the connection? Think about it.

[MV=PY]

"Trying to not hurt your feelings, but you do grasp that people die? Every day? For many reasons? But now all the dead people die of flu... You can’t make the connection? Think about it."

What...?

I posted a graph with an interesting perspective on this mess.

[bitt]

p

[Steven W.]

I took a deeper look at that “COVID ACT Now” site and I didn’t find anything to “prove” this but my gut impression was furthered that it’s a fraud - that site did not just “materialize” out of thin air - there was a lot of planning and detail work there. How did that happen? How did it get built and wide exposure in just a short period of time (weeks at most) ? It appears to be a tool of panic & fear prepared by rat tech nerds ... most likely AHEAD of TIME. IMO.

[Steven W.]

Wow - amazing how only those who are gravely ill, first responders and apparently celebrities are able to get up and get in their cars and drive by the thousands to the now numerous testing locations. As the numbers of those being tested go up, we instead have learn that 98-99% of those who think they had COVID-19 didn’t.