Posted on 03/18/2020 8:26:33 PM PDT by Teacher317
Just posted this on another thread, and I think that it might deserve its own. It's potentially great news, and most of us are really desperate for that right about now...
Looking at the graphs of New Cases Reported in China, Italy, Iran, South Korea, France, and Spain, they are relatively consistent. Some cases get reported, and then a sudden rise in cases reported lasts for 13-17 days, then they hit a plateau for 3-4 days, then they begin to decline.
China's rise lasted for 25 days, but that's easily explained by the fact that they were first, that they have such a massive population and density (and not the best health care system... I've been in Chinese hospitals before... I literally walked out of one, with an open wound filled with glass from a car accident), and that Chinese New Year involves a HUGE amount of travel within China for almost all Chinese for up to two weeks. Their jump in reported cases didn't begin until JAN 22, when people were already traveling for the holiday.
South Korea's accelerated rise began on FEB 19 (27 new cases, then 53, 98, and 227, etc), and topped out on MAR 3 (at 851... after 13 days of rising... then 400 on MAR 4, then 660, 309, 448, 272, 165 on MAR 9...). Since Mar 10, they've had more completed recoveries reported than new cases reported!!!
Same with Iran... FEB 26 (44, then 106, 143, 205...), peaking on MAR 14 (after 17 days) at 1365, then 1209 and 1053...
Italy, France, and Spain are all right at the 2-week mark after the rise began, so there's not a plateau started yet... but a few more days will tell even more clearly. Italy's last 4 days were 3500, 3600, 3200, and 3500... seems like a plateau to me... hopefully maybe please!!!
Our accelerated rise began after MAR 7-9 (98, 116, 106... then 163, 290, 307, 396). If we follow the path of the other bell curves, where the rise only lasts for 13-17 days, then our plateau should begin this weekend, and the decline should begin next week.
On the other side, we are getting a zillion testing kits put out soon, so we will also likely see a spike in reported numbers, as all of those who have had no symptoms suddenly get added to the pile, so I may get to look like a total loon after all. :/
And yet, they arranged their daily lies in a Bell Curve that in the end magically fits the same as the other nations? And yet theirs remains the worst Bell Curve, because it is elongated, and their rise lasted for 25 days, not the 13-17 of most of the others? That doesn't seem like the way that a lying regime would lie.
But again, all I've said is that the Bell Curves of the other 6 countries seems to indicate that ours might hit that inflection pretty soon. Nothing else, just that... and it still fits, even with differing political styles and harshness of responses... mostly meaning that the virus doesn't care what we do, it's doing what it does, and all our plans and bans and everything don't mean much at all... which also makes sense.
I think you are right.
“Why will people with no symptoms be tested?”
Contact tracing.
One data point. Let's see more.
And... that's it? ALL traffic? Essential? Commercial vehicles? Food? Fuel?
We are our own worst enemy when it comes to spreading FUD.
That graph is Total Cases, not New Cases. It tends to simply add each new day’s total, and not deduct for those who have recovered. It is a graph that can ONLY rise. That’s not going to be as accurate or as indicative as the New Cases graph.
Awesome! Thanks for the graphs! How did you do that??
Dude, I love it!
I am an oldish engineer. I am a numbers guy. It doesn’t matter how I feel about it, what matters is the numbers. I have been watching them and doing estimates based on the numbers, daily. I believe you are correct. I am not not sure if there range is correct for the beginning of the inflection point of the curve (because it is hard to estimate) but I believe your analysis is sound.
Keep it up. I do not post because people can’t seem to understand that you can respect the disease but it does not warrant the panic that is see.
I'll happily take MAR 25 rather than mid-August!!!
You write that very eloquently. Thank you for that.
Guess how the media will write that:
"Number of cases SURGES"
"Number of cases EXPLODES"
"Number of cases (insert word of day here)"
Even the Surgeon General is doing this. A problem can be serious without being that way.
FUD. It drives the markets (*in part*). It drives panic buying. It's a very strong influence on how people act, think, and react.
What you are seeing all around the world is curve flattening effects.
If this was allowed to run free we’d still be seeing exponential growth. Not enough people have been infected to create an inflection point. But all the containment efforts together are having an effect. It’s like kicking the feet out from under the virus, over and over and over. Yeah, it gets back up, but it has to start over again. That is what the containment efforts do, even though individually they are futile - everybody is going to be exposed, eventually, just, thank God, not all at once - all together they slow the virus’ spread.
No prob. Made the same error myself a few days ago.
Many responses to possibilities of interstates being shutdown. You heard it here first.
Irrelevant whether they do or not. The real question is what signals a green light to resume normalcy.
Flattening the curve prevents hospitals from being overwhelmed, but doesn’t return us to normalcy.
The country stays shutdown until they have a vaccine, and please dont use any fake Chinese numbers or a decling curve in Italian numbers as a green light. Trumps reelection campaign will focus on the fewest deaths as compared to rest of world and any false it’s all clear signal will cost him the election. Lives over the market.
We are at war with China. They fired the first shot(bio).
Helicopter money for all until green light.
Fed buys the SPY.
The only study I would trust at this point is S. Korea. I don’t trust Chinese and Iranian reporting and for the others we don’t know the denominator due to inadequate testing. But for Italy, a plateau of 3500/ day is nothing to celebrate.
My gut feeling is that in 2 weeks we will view this whole episode like we do a Cat 5 hurricane that veers north and avoids the coast.
You are making it hard for yourself calculating percentage. Look at the logarithmic scale. It's hard to tell if Italy is continuing on constant exponential, or if the line is curving to the right, meaning slower growth. Reporting has a lot to do with it.
I guess you just don't understand. Carry on.
“and as testing increases, and cases increase, the CFR will drop dramatically”
If the case count increases dramatically. However, you can’t calculate CFR using unresolved cases. The Deaths-to-Cases Ratio would certainly decrease with more cases found.
“I kind of get the impression that some people WANT to be proven right about the CFR being high...”
I see certain FReepers forcing others into a position that might seem that way, but it is problematic to offer false hopes (as in wishful thinking and optimistic hypotheses without substantiation) and call others out as death-cultists for not buying into them. There is a lot of criticism of FReepers by the rainbows-and-unicorns crowd.
They could effectively close the interstates by closing the gas stations, but that would do more harm than good.
I am trying to keep track of Washington state as well. The DOH in Washington on March 17 showed 1012 positive and 13,117 negative.
For today, March 18, it is 1187 positive and 15,918 negative.
So it appears that there was a rise of 185 positive but there were more than 2,000 more negative.
There were six deaths but I believe that three were the nursing home deaths that have been occurring here.
So more testing, a lot more positives and some more negatives.
Also it appears that more younger people seem to be getting tested as the statistics for them testing positive are rising.
Ok flu bro, Washington has had 56 die of this crap in the last 3 weeks.
THAT IS TWO YEARS OF NORMAL FLU DEATHS HERE. IN THREE F_CKING WEEKS.
Denial sucks. Learn truth thru statistics, not what people tell you that you want to hear. It ain’t always pretty.
Get used to it.
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