Posted on 03/13/2020 11:26:34 AM PDT by Pining_4_TX
The above statistics are no doubt frightening numbers. But there are at least three major mitigating factors. First, the number of mild or asymptomatic cases is unknown and probably substantial. Second, China is still a poor country with low-quality health care and, at the epicenter of the outbreak in Hubei province, was overwhelmed by the virus. (The case-fatality rate in Chinese provinces outside Hubei, where hospitals aren’t overloaded, is much lower.) Third, smoking is much more prevalent in China than America, especially among men (52 percent in China versus 16 percent in the U.S.), and smoking is a risk factor for poor responses to respiratory infections. Together, this means the case-fatality rate is likely inflated, and it would be a mistake to apply these figures to the United States or other advanced nations.
The real question, then, is how inflated the case-fatality rates are. At this point, it’s impossible to determine because scientists are still collecting data on how widespread the virus is. But to get a sense of how exaggerated these numbers might be, it is useful to examine the case-fatality rate for seasonal influenza. For the 2018-19 influenza season, the U.S. Center for Disease Control and Prevention provides estimates for the number of cases (defined here as “symptomatic illnesses”) and deaths. From these, we can derive case-fatality rate estimates by age group.
(Excerpt) Read more at acsh.org ...
Yes, you will get sick and die.
Maybe not from this virus, but eventually the answer to both those questions is “yes”.
It’d be interesting to see the same type of analysis done for Italy, which has a much higher CFR to-date than China. Wonder why..
I’m 70 with some health problems so will probably die if I get it.
So just as well cash everything out and move into my favorite spa.At least I will die relaxed.
Only if you a Bernie or Joe supporting Democrat
Medicine these days is mostly about the probabilities.
Your individual experience is essentially a one or zer0 on outcome. There is no good prediction on your individual outcome.
Do your best to figure out what to do, but don’t count on the “expected [in the statistical sense]” result coming true for you.
If I get it I’m going to the ABC store and buying that $2K+ bottle of scotch they got glassed off. And I won’t care what the wifey has to say, period:-)
A close friend of mine is a retired oncologist, and also a Freeper whose cover I won't blow here. We were discussing a medical question, and the associated statistics, and he commented, "Statistics don't matter when it's you."
Worth remembering.
Good luck. Hopefully you don’t read some of the, shall I say, reverse tin-foil hat drivel spewed around here by people hiding behind anonymous monikers. Praying for you.
Did you know in recent years that 80 percent of those who died from flu were 65 or older? Approximately the same rate as this virus.
Your chances of getting the flu right now are hundred times greater. Be careful and take as much preventative precautions that you can. I am in my 60’s too and don’t have great lung capacity. I take a pretty solid vitamin and herb regimen that supports my immune system. I have never missed a day of work due to the flu or other sickness.
:) :)
OTOH, my wife teaches at an elementary school (Pre-K), but they do have Purell dispensers in every classroom, but... What if she gets sneezed on or coughed at or touched by a kid after using his hand to wipe his mouth? UGH.
Today (Friday) is the last day and then it's Spring Break for a week. Hopefully, things will have quieted down after a week's break...
Hang in there, everyone. We'll get through this (and even the never-Trumpers who seem to come out of the woodwork when the slightest little thing happens).
=:-)
In your 60’s 3.6% chance of dying based on age alone. Call it 5% (a guess!) if you add the asthma.
That’s a only 5% chance of succumbing in the unlikely event that you catch it.
I’m in much the same boat. I’m concerned, but not worried.
Make that unlikely event of catching it even more unlikely by hand washing, avoiding kids, crowds and enclosed spaces with others, and minimizing trips out of the house.
If you must grocery shop do it in off hours (I shop at oh dark hundred on Sundays) Buy a few more cans of beans and see if you can stock up enough to not have to go every week.
We’ll get through this!
Maybe if you don’t die you might wish you would based on some reports of how people who got it and survived.
I am not a medical doctor but I have a similar profile.
Recommendations:
1) If you have not already done so, get your pneumonia vaccination.
2) get a home nebulizer and have your doc prescribe meds
3) have a vial of colloidal silver to use only if you get an upper respiratory infection.
3) Go through and sanatize your house now - clorox wipes for door handles, phones, any high touch areas. The idea is to reduce the overall viral load
4) Vaccum your airducts vents (reduces the lung / allergen particulate load in the house
5) replace your house filter with a higher end HEPA rating of 12 or more. More particulate reduction.
6) go see chiropractor to get adjusted to help your breathing. A rib that is out of position can reduce your overall lung volume
7) Do your breathing exercises
8) have a 30 day emergency supply of meds (i.e. a supply ABOVE your normal supply)
9) sterilize your tooth brush or buy a new one
10) wash your bed sheets and pillow cases with a detergent that contains hydrogen peroxide - wash more frequently
11) If you use a CPAP, sterilize regularly.
My recent [fortunately largely successful] experiences with Big Medicine have emphasized that point to me.
I’m pretty sure expensive scotch kills all known viruses.
Let me guess: you're either in Hawaii or Las Vegas, NV. 😉
More research is needed. It's for Science!
Does that exclude accidental death?
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