Posted on 03/06/2020 7:34:20 PM PST by Mariner
SAN FRANCISCO (CBS SF) — The number of Northern California residents who contracted the coronavirus on a February cruise to Mexico aboard the Grand Princess grew to at least five Friday with two new cases reported in Contra Costa County.
Meanwhile, Vice President Mike Pence announced on Friday that 19 crew members and two passengers on the current cruise have tested positive for the coronavirus. He said the ship would dock at a “non-commercial port” over the weekend and the more than 2,000 passengers would be allowed to leave the boat.
“We have developed a plan which will be implemented this weekend to bring the ship into a non-commercial port,” Pence said. “All passengers and crew will be tested for the coronavirus. Those that need to be quarantined will be quarantined. Those that require additional medical attention will receive it…We are taking all measures necessary to see to the health of the Americans and those involved on the Grand Princess. And just as importantly to protect the health of the American public and prevent the spread of the disease.”
While the current cruise has raised plenty of concern, local health officials were also dealing with coronavirus-related health issues that have arisen from the ship’s previous round-trip voyage from San Francisco to Mexico on Feb. 11-21.
Hundreds of Northern California residents were on the popular cruise and so far five have been diagnosed with the virus; at least one former passenger has died.
(Excerpt) Read more at sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com ...
Many are complaining they still cannot get tested.
Meanwhile 3,000 people are stuck on this ship off SF after 19 crew tested positive our of 46 tests administered.
This thing is easy to catch, obviously.
There’s gonna be a lot more who get it in the country before there will be a lot less.
Does ANYONE know if there’s a reliable mortality rate for this thing? I read somewhere 2 percent if your healthy and relatively young and up to 15 percent of you’re elderly and/or not particularly healthy .
15’s a lot.
Those percentages you quote are for those who show up at the hospital.
There’s probably 10 who have a bad cold/flu for every one that seeks hospital care.
19 out of 46!?!!?!!
It’s a quite an irony that your posts are calm and cool and mine have !!!s everywhere.
There’s a little patch of land in the water between brooklyn and staten island.
Could probably fit a tent and enough canned goods and water for 3 or 4 months.
So long everyone
The US has learned from Japan’s mistake of turning a ship into a floating petri dish.
Sense and sanity prevail.
There are still 3,000 people on that ship off the coast of the Golden Gate. And they’ve been at sea for about 20 days.
The article reference the PREVIOUS cruise on the same ship.
Those there now are in a nightmare of a situation. The virus is likely spreading unchecked as even crew members have it.
Another potential disaster in the making.
Plant a flag on it!
ROFL!!!!!
You kill me! :)
It has a mortality profile similar to the flu, just with a bigger amplitude. For the flu, 80% of the deaths were age 65+. Sorry.
As long as adequate resources are focused on it, it seems manageable and the mortality rate overall is down around 2%. Honestly, though, it is still way too early to tell and the statistics are contaminated by dishonest Chinese and Iranian reporting (possibly others). That 3.4% figure and the real 6% number that they misrepresented using the 3.4% are heavily influenced by the bogus Chinese numbers.
If the resources are inadequate then the mortality rate skyrockets. And thus, I repeat the mantra: Containment is key.
That means quarantines, small and large, so people should be prepared to stay at home for extended periods. You don’t want to be that guy roaming the streets looking for food or TP.
Sidebar: Note that this is loose in Mexico and it will come across the southern border independently of any cruise ships.
“The virus is likely spreading unchecked as even crew members have it.”
It is likely the crew members were the conduit for the virus between the two cruises.
It wasn't 46 random people. Those 46 had a reason for being tested. They were already sick.
I hope nobody ate at the salad bar.
No offense to those that enjoy cruises, but to me a cruise is the opposite of a good vacation! I know no one cares. I just have to say it.
[No offense to those that enjoy cruises, but to me a cruise is the opposite of a good vacation! I know no one cares. I just have to say it.]
“The US has learned from Japan’s mistake of turning a ship into a floating petri dish.
Sense and sanity prevail.”
Maybe the lesson is obvious to you, but it really isn’t to me.
Are you SURE that less people would be infected and killed if they had been taken off the ship earlier? This debate between Trump and Pence school of thought is reasonable.
Is it possible that there will far fewer casualties in Japan as a result of their decision to not let passengers into their country, even in “quarantine”?
People say the solution is taking them off the ship and putting them in “quarantine”. People escape quarantines and an explosion of infections can occur. For example, the comedian from the diamond princess ran away and flew home after being ‘quarantined’ in a hotel room off the ship.
How many will he infect, and the people he infected...
How many true quarantine beds are at your hospital? The one near me, there is ONE true quarantine room. And that only works is all the equipment works perfectly, and procedure is followed perfectly. But it’s never perfect.
I could type a lot more, but I don’t think your conclusion is as clear as you suggest, not at all
The current residents of that non-commercial port will be somewhat surprised by this news.
These numbers include Mainland China and All Others globally
Because things are heating up, I wanted to present the data a little
different this time. Let's look at the normal things, but provide
the last five days of each metric. I want you to be able to see how
things are changing.
Declared Cases
. Declared Deceased
. . Declared Recovered
. . . Declared Resolved
Date . . . . Cases Remining Active
-----------------------------------------------------------------
03/02 90,937 3,117 48,054 51,171 39,766
03/03 93,160 3,198 50,690 53,888 39,272
03/04 95,425 3,286 53,399 56,685 38,740
03/05 98,387 3,383 55,441 58,824 39,563
03/06 102,188 3,491 57,389 60,880 41,308
It's not that easy to spot the change in daily growth. Here are the change That's a rather prounounced growth rate. Now these are just the declared
cases, but still...
The last column there shows the numbers of active cases. You will note how
they were dropping, then started increasing again. Here are the last five days
drop & growth numbers. -1,164, -494, -532, +823, +1,745...
It may seem that the rapid growth of declared cases would result in a larger
increase in active cases, but resolved cases each day offsets the growth.
This is the natural way the active cases lag behind the declarations.
Right now that 3,801 new declared cases looms large. The bright side of that
is that in two-three weeks, guess what happens. At some point we'll have
3,000-3,500 resolved cases per day going forward. That in turn will be
offsetting any new cases cropping up then. Then at some point the number
of active cases will stagnate, and start falling again. That will be the
beginning of the end.
This will be an interesting process, because we may have ten to twenty hot
spot nations in the days ahead. We've already have 3-5 more headed in
that direction.
Back around the 25th of February I had predicted that this flu might be
on it's last legs by the 15th. If it had been possible to keep this
from spreading outside China in large numbers, that would have held true.
Sadly, that wasn't possible.
We live in a highly mobile world. Infections can find hosts and carriers
rather easily.
The mortality rate did drop a small bit yesterday from 5.75% to 5.73%. It is
stalling due to the massive numbers of new cases outside China.
I expect it to begin to rise in the next 24 to 48 hours. I was surprised
it didn't today.
Later today, the majority of active cases of COVID-19 will exist outside
Mainland China for the first time. It should be documented before noon PST.
We are still a whisker away from 60% of all declared cases, being resolved.
We won't reach that number at this time. The increase in outside Mainland
China cases will prevent it.
These numbers address the cases outside of Mainland China.
I will provide the same format for the numbers outside Mainland China.
Declared Cases
. Declared Deceased
. . Declared Recovered
. . . Declared Resolved
Date . . . . Cases Remining Active
-----------------------------------------------------------------
03/02 10,786 173 792 965 9,821
03/03 12,890 217 837 1,054 11,836
03/04 15,015 279 1,222 1,501 13,514
03/05 17,832 341 1,685 2,026 15,806
03/06 21,537 421 1,986 2,407 19,130
Those numbers could easily continue to double or more every five days. As newYou can study the progression of any category you like.
Lets talk about the United States for a minute. I am troubled by the daily
growth I'm seeing. Our cases are now growing at the rate of 50% per day.
Those of you who know how compound interest works, will realize it will only
take a matter of days before we have thousnd of cases here, if thie rate keeps
up. I'm resigned to the idea it will.
Here are the last seven days:
02/29 - 071
03/01 - 086
03/02 - 105
03/03 - 127
03/04 - 159
03/05 - 233
03/06 - 338
Notice how tht daily change has grown close to 50%.
Here is what the slice of the Active Case Pie, looks like outside Mainland
China. Here is the percentage of Active Cases outside China.
03/02 - 24.70%
03/03 - 30.14%
03/04 - 34.88%
03/05 - 39.95%
03/06 - 46.31%
That makes it pretty clear why I said over 50% of the Active Cases outside
Mainland China will excede 50% for the first time.
The current mortality rate of deceased / deceased + recovered is 17.49%. That figure
is still grosely high, and should not be used for purposes of extrapolation of what
lies ahead.
There are now 15,806 active cases outside of Mainland China. The number of
active cases grew 2,792 cases today, and that was a rate of 16.96%. (EOD 03/06)
102 nations are now declaring cases within their borders. 1+
Three nations of the 102 nations or entities outside of Mainland China still account
for right at 75% of all active cases outside China at this time.
6,767 31.42% South Korea
4,747 21.53% Iran
4,636 22.04% Italy
74.99% of all cases ourside of China...
These are clearly three break-out naitons.
All data below sourced from Johns Hopkins University: LINK
I have been downloading three to five reports per day since 01/27. I have then
worked up numbers that should give a very good representation of numbers that have
been provided to the public via that site.
In my spreadsheet linked below, you'll find global numbers including China. You will
find a separate section addressing just the Outside China figures. There are also
a lot of special stats broken out for you to browse. The history of 102 nations and
their Coronavirus record is there for you to view.
You're welcome to it.
COVID-19 Spreadsheet using JHU data
I'd like to apologize to those who may have been accessing my XLS version.
Due to the numbers of nations I am now tracking, the XLS version cannot support
the width of the file I have created. I can no longer provide it without major work.
If anyone wants that version, let me know and I'll see what I can do.
Being on a cruise liner makes it really easy to catch anything - there’s been ,lots of stories about e coli bombs affecting huge numbers of passengers...once a few cases are among the passengers/crew, they can reinfect surfaces that have been cleaned....
I’ve been joking that “The Great Dem Hope Virus” will have in excess of 100% fatality rate here because of the panic mode folks are embracing - if someone sneezes, half of those who hear it will die of heart attacks....and allergy season is just around the corner...
So where do they dump the sewage from these infected cruise ships?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.