Posted on 02/27/2020 6:15:35 AM PST by Moonman62
Researchers from China's Center for Disease Control and Prevention today describe the clinical findings on more than 72,000 COVID-19 cases reported in mainland China, which reveal a case-fatality rate (CFR) of 2.3% and suggest most cases are mild, but the disease hits the elderly the hardest.
The study, published in JAMA, is the largest patient-based study on the novel coronavirus, which was first connected to seafood market in Wuhan, China, in December, and has since traversed the globe.
Death rate in critically ill: 49% or higher
A total of 72,314 COVID-19 cases, diagnosed through Feb 11 were used for the study. Of the 72,314 cases, 44,672 were classified as confirmed cases of COVID-19 (62%; diagnosis based on positive throat swab samples), 16,186 as suspected cases (diagnosis based on symptoms and exposures only), 10,567 as clinically diagnosed cases (from Hubei province only, diagnoses based on symptoms, including lung x-ray), and 889 as asymptomatic cases (diagnosis by positive test result but lacking typical symptoms).
"Most cases were diagnosed in Hubei Province (75%) and most reported Wuhan-related exposures (86%; ie, Wuhan resident or visitor or close contact with Wuhan resident or visitor," the authors said.
Eighty-seven percent of patients were aged 30 to 79 years (38,680 cases). This age-group was the most affected by a wide margin, followed by ages 20 to 29 (3,619 cases, or 8%), those 80 and older (1,408 cases, or 3%), and 1% each in ages less than 10 and 10 to 19 years.
Of the confirmed cases, 1,023 patients—all in critical condition—died from the virus, which results in a CFR of 2.3%. The CFR jumped considerably among older patients, to 14.8% in patients 80 and older, and 8.0% in patients ages 70 to 79. Among the critically ill, the CFR was 49.0%.
A smaller study today based on 52 critically ill patients at a Wuhan hospital confirms this finding. Thirty-two of the 52 critically ill patients (61.5%) died, and older age and acute respiratory distress syndrome were correlated with mortality.
The authors of the smaller study also found that 30 (81%) of 37 patients requiring mechanical ventilation had died by 28 days.
Less deadly but more transmissible than SARS, MERS
A total of 81% of cases in the JAMA study were classified as mild, meaning they did not result in pneumonia or resulted in only mild pneumonia. Fourteen percent of cases were severe (marked by difficulty breathing), and 5% were critical (respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction or failure).
In comparison to SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) and MERS (Middle East respiratory syndrome) coronaviruses, which were both identified in the past 20 years, COVID-19 is likely more highly transmissible but not as deadly, the researchers noted. (SARS had a CFR of 9.6%; MERS has a CFR of 34.4%.) And unlike SARS and MERS, hospital-based outbreaks do not seem to be hallmark of COVID-19 at this time.
"Most secondary transmission of SARS and MERS occurred in the hospital setting," the authors wrote. "Transmission of COVID-19 is occurring in this context as well—3019 cases have been observed among health workers as of February 11, 2020 (of whom there have been 1716 confirmed cases and 5 deaths). However, this is not a major means of COVID-19 spread. Rather, it appears that considerable transmission is occurring among close contacts."
Cruise ship study suggests R0 of 2.28
In other research news, a study in the International Journal of Infectious Diseases uses data from the Diamond Princess cruise ship to calculate COVID-19's reproductive number (R0, or R-naught), or the number of people a single infected person is likely to infect.
Among the 355 passengers who contracted the virus, the researchers calculated an R0 of 2.28, similar to other R0 modeling published in the past several weeks.
Also today, two groups announced major developments in COVID-19 vaccine developments. China's Clover Biopharmaceuticals will partner with GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) on Clover's protein-based coronavirus vaccine candidate, COVID-19 S-Trimer, according to a GSK news release. And the University of Queensland in Australia announced a vaccine candidate is ready for a proof-of-concept study after just 3 weeks in development.
mortality rates can’t be accurately determined since communist China is fudging their infected/death numbers.
This is probably close to accurate but given the (mostly) closed environment, it might be too high?
I read on here just a few days ago that is was no worse than a common cold and the people saying it was serious are provocateurs trying to hurt Trump.
Chinese agitprop designed to crash the market.
Cruise ship (sealed petri dish) Corona numbers are misleading
Agree.
Politically incorrect but essential question that must be answered. Do Caucasians and Africans have the same rate of infection, the same degree of illness if infected and death rate as is being observed in genetic Asians? Thus far the answer appears to be no.
Nope. The Deep State, the Democrats and the media,
conspiracy KooKery.
Mortality rates in developed nations (S. Korea, Italy) seems to be a bit over 1%. Much less than SARS or MERS, which were also Coronaviruses.
Their own? This is going to decimate China. They will never recover from this.
I don’t believe any numbers either. It’s misinformation or the samples are too small or both.
Pretty much.
On the other side, they likely haven’t diagnosed many weak cases. Further still, the death rate presumably varies by level of care.
What sounds like a believable estimate for medically advanced and not overwhelmed nations is the 0.7% I’ve seen tossed out there.
Remdesivir has shown promise against other coronaviruses, and may be beneficial in this current outbreak. Gilead’s drug is now being tested in China and the U.S. Marks also said convalescent plasma, a blood product taken from people who have already fallen ill, may have potential.
Treatment is getting a lot better and they might have cure (increase in chance of survival) in a few weeks. The mortality rate will fall quickly. Next, viruses hate heat and dry weather. The warmer weather might kill it off.
While viruses hate heat and humidity. So do humans. Both humans and viruses love air conditioning.
A/C is how SARS spread extensively in HK and Singapore as both places are wealthy enough to afford it. But possibly why it didn’t spread in Indonesia and other ‘poor at the time’ Asian countries.
We’ll see though, heat doesn’t kill all coronaviruses.
I read on here just a few days ago that is was no worse than a common cold and the people saying it was serious are provocateurs trying to hurt Trump.
...
Unless you’re elderly or have serious health issues, most likely the infection will be mild.
China’s numbers are cooked.
I wouldn’t trust them with last week’s unsorted recyclables.
But they put hundreds of people under quarantine and dug up secondary and tertiary roads in the process. So somethings afoot.
SK will be the best numbers. They’re testing hundreds of thousands of people and will catch the ‘mild cold’ cases along with the more serious ones.
Yep, and Iran is showing app. 20% mortality, with again, mostly likely fudged numbers.
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