mortality rates can’t be accurately determined since communist China is fudging their infected/death numbers.
This is probably close to accurate but given the (mostly) closed environment, it might be too high?
I read on here just a few days ago that is was no worse than a common cold and the people saying it was serious are provocateurs trying to hurt Trump.
Chinese agitprop designed to crash the market.
Politically incorrect but essential question that must be answered. Do Caucasians and Africans have the same rate of infection, the same degree of illness if infected and death rate as is being observed in genetic Asians? Thus far the answer appears to be no.
What about the percent requiring hospitalization?
Usually you don’t go to the hospital for the flu.
It sounds like about 10% (or more) require critical care.
When hospitals are full that will not be available, so the death toll may rise.
The data they use is 16 days old.
Crunching real time data from Johns Hopkins...
Outside of China, which includes a lot of Third World countries, the death rate per confirmed infection is 0.7%.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
For comparison - an “average” influenza season in the USA has a total morbidity rate of 0.2%.
I think the corona death rate outside China will continue to drop since we are basically counting the most serious cases at the moment.
The unknown problem - how contagious is it?
Even with a very low death rate, if the corona infection rate is very high, then a lot of people will die.
I’ll trust the south Korean and Japanese numbers when those come out. That should give us sn accurate read on mortality and healthcare means in a modern society
I can say for sure that the Chinese government doesn’t care about the virus much anymore. Have multiple contacts and they say the in interstate travel restrictions lifted.
The formula for a Confirmed Fatality Rate is not calculated that way.
The general way to do it is:
Deaths/(Deaths+Recovered.)
Right now the reason why this is probably an incorrect assessment is the numbers from China are crap. The second is that the virus has not been tracked outside of China for a matter of weeks.
Usually, this calculation is done AFTER the fact.
Other concerns are that MOST people with the virus NEVER get counted. As an example, in the US the influenza rate in 2018-2019 was 35.5 Million. Or EXACTLY 10% of the population. Sound fishy? The reason is you simply do not know. Its not dramatic. Its just the way it is.
I am NOT saying this isn’t ending up at 2.5% or whatever. I am just saying at this point the numbers are garbage in.
What everyone MUST remember is that it is contagious, but it does not appear to be “lethal” to a VAST majority of people.
The danger in this is NOT dying. It is overwhelming the system and hurting the economy.
You do NOT want to have to go to the hospital when this stuff is going on. If you are thinking about starting your hang gliding career over the next few months, you might want to put it off until summer.
How about the hypothesis that a majority of the infected persons think they have a cold or the flu and don’t even know that they have the corona virus and recover just fine?
meh