Posted on 02/24/2020 5:18:52 PM PST by BusterDog
4.8% fatality rate.
Analysis of 50,404 patients
“According to Meta-analysis, among the clinical characteristics of patients with 2019-nCoV infection, the incidence of fever is 90.9% , the incidence of cough is 70.8%, and the incidence of muscle soreness or fatigue is 41%. The incidence of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) was 14.8%, the incidence of abnormal chest CT was 95.6%, the proportion of severe cases in all infected cases was 21.3%, and the mortality rate of patients with 2019-nCoV infection was 4.8%.”
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.18.20024539v1
Futures are already up 200+ and gold is down almost $20.
The crisis is over. Yahoo.
“And needless to say, if the bug got a 3 month head start in Asia, then there will probably be more Asians infected, as the rest of the world tries to catch up. Additionally, the rest of the world will have some idea of what’s coming and will at least have the opportunity to take steps to minimize/mitigate its effects.”
I sure hope that lead time works out for the rest of us (those not in Asia, whether of Asian descent or otherwise). I suspect containment efforts will only delay the spread, but maybe that will save some lives. Asia is screwed, clearly. I guess we get to see what the difference is between first world medicine and third world medicine.
The vast majority of the deaths are in China in places where there is a lot of poverty and poor sanitary conditions.
This is also an odd virus where some people are becoming gravely ill and dying and the same virus infects someone else and causes no symptoms at all. So some people are infected and don’t even know it. In that case, the rate of infection is likely higher than reported, which would bring down the mortality percentage.
6.8% for flu
The percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza is 6.8%, below the epidemic threshold of 7.3%. Pediatric Deaths 14 influenza-associated pediatric deaths occurring during the 2019-2020 season were reported this week. The total for the season is 92. All data are preliminary and may change as more reports are received. A description of the CDC influenza surveillance system, including methodology and detailed descriptions of each data component is available on the surveillance methods page.
Weekly U.S. Influenza Surveillance Re…
www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm
I’d also guess that the horrible air quality in China also might have something to do with it.
I bet they havent taken into account the air quality in those countries either.
China? Hell, you cant even see in some of their cities on account of the pollution.
Now In China's Rivers: Decomposing Humans
Officials in Lanzhou say bodies floating in river not affecting
Good to know, thanks. I lost money (on paper) today, and was about to juggle my portfolio. Wife told me to hold, and not panic. This isn't 2008, but even after that crash, financials recovered (and then some).
I think those are numbers for those who show up sick, seeking care.
Still, if true it will be talked and written about hundreds of years from now.
“the incidence of abnormal chest CT was 95.6%”
95% of those who get sick get pneumonia. 5% of those who get sick, die. 20%+ in ICU.
“They are more prone to have serious cases and die from this than those with european genetics.”
Internet bullsh!t story.
These numbers are horrifying given the transmission rate of the virus. As it stands now, you are more likely to get it at some point than not. But hey... it’s only 4.8% after you get it, right? Good news to invest on!
Ooooooor... it’s mostly Asian deaths because that’s where it broke out first.
THIS is a fantastic question and, to me, is evidence that China is massively under-reporting the numbers here.
If all they did was republish the results of other studies then we should see other studies with similar numbers. I have not seen such studies, but I have not looked around a lot.
They didn't get any cases. It's a meta-study.
We know almost nothing about the denominator. I simply take the Chinese numbers for granted at this point, but the number of cases could be a lot higher.
To be clear, that's not the mortality rate for flu. In any case the excess mortality from flu and all other winter season illness is about 10% In bad flu years it is more like 15%
see post 79
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.