Coronavirus Epidemic Update 5: Mortality Rate vs SARS / Influenza

Youtube ^ | Published on Jan 29, 2020 | Dr. Seheult

[11th_VA]

Coronavirus outbreak update by pulmonologist Dr. Seheult of https://www.medcram.com This video illustrates the current confirmed novel coronavirus cases outside of China and coronavirus mortality rate (vs. SARS and Influenza).

Video Link

[11th_VA]

How Coronavirus Kills: Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) & Treatment

[dangus]

Too early to compare. At this rate, only the worst cases are identified.

[dp0622]

Yeah but the YouTube video explains pretty well then it’s at about 2.3%. It is not SARS it is not the Spanish flu. Just a thing that needs to be contained and a lot of talk will go on about it

[grey_whiskers]

Spanish flu killed 2% as well.

What is (possibly) more worrisome, is that China admitted it is transmissible before symptoms; and about 20% of those getting it, will need advanced medical care.

That means hospitals get swamped and other patients die from lack of care, or materials.

I have eyeballed reports that small villages in China are *walling themselves in*; that the government has ordered petrol stations not to fuel private vehicles from Wuhan; and that people are being boarded into their rooms or houses from the outside.

No, I haven't verified them, nor would I know how, as they are purportedly translations into English, by other people, from Chinese sources. And people do love spreading all tales on the internet.

On the other hand, if things WERE really bad, Chinese authorities would be moving heaven and earth to cover up and suppress bad news. And we KNOW the mayor of Wuhan has (Kek!) "resigned". Doesn't mean a $200,000/yr pension over there like it does over here.

What does that suggest? Sunshine and flowers?

[gasport]

Doesn’t Schiff need to be in Wuhan to gather Intelligence on the Corona threat?

[bgill]

It’s all well and good until you’re one of the 2%.

[Jewbacca]

Mortality rate, while not meaningless, is not the number to watch.

25% of the infected end up in the hospital in “critical” condition.

Given the infection rate, you could end up with 1/8 of your country in hospital for a month or two.

No economy could withstand that.

[null and void]

Take a breath!!! Watch the video, well worth the 8 minutes or so...

Bring Out Your Dead

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

So far the false positive rate is 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

If a quarantine saves just one child's life, it's worth it.

[normbal]

Asymptomatic transmission is possible with most viruses.

This is called an “inapparent infection” where, for example, someone is infected by, say, influenza, the cells of the nasopharynx/lungs are being used as virus factories to crank out 100,000-plus copies of the virus from every cell, these particles, being small and light enough to leave the mucosal surface spew out of the person’s mouth and nose through casual conversation, random cough or sneeze or - my favorite - running on a treadmill at a crowded fitness center, spreading the virus far and wide LONG before one looks or feels ill at all. Totally asymptomatic.

This is also known as the “incubation period,” generally speaking for upper respiratory viruses on the order of 1 to 14 days, until the person “gets sick,” (the immune system responds to the presence of the virus with the usual interferons, kinins, histamine, all that stuff causing congestion, cough, runny nose, aches/pains, blood pressure changes, fever, malaise) or, and this is fun to think about too, many people never “get sick.” Like viral “Thyphoid Marys.”

Man, I love virology. And viruses are everywhere.

I have a gross of N95 masks in my office along with eye shields/goggles, and a boatload of Forsythia (the secret cure “Big Pharma” isn’t telling the public about). Ahem...

In sum, your best bet is to avoid any and all close interpersonal contact whatsoever. Avoid gyms, bars, sports games, crowds, and for the love of Mike, if you have a sprained ankle and go into an Urgent care clinic or Emergency room put on a mask at least and/or expect to leave with the flu.

Or coronavirus.

[grey_whiskers]

How / when does one take Forsythia? Tablets, capsules, as a tea, or drops put into a beverage?

As a general prophylactic, or as soon as possible after suspected exposure, or after onset of frank symptoms? Thanks!

[normbal]

It’s a joke.

It’s a reference to the 2011 film “Contagion” which did a VERY good job of presenting the course of a pandemic viral outbreak such as the “Wuhan Flu”, and the ensuing societal breakdown, marshal law, CDC and WHO response (in their ideal level of functioning), AND, the inevitable purveyors of dubious “cures” such as “Forsythia,” which, as is presented in the film, is THE CURE the government-pharma complex isn’t telling anyone about (which, of course, turns out to be useless, which most all homeopathic, vitamin C, D, herbal and other “cures” usually do).

Sorry.

[SomeCallMeTim]

Excellent post! thanks.

[ScottfromNJ]

“25% of the infected end up in the hospital in “critical” condition.

Given the infection rate, you could end up with 1/8 of your country in hospital for a month or two.”

And of course that would mean hundreds of millions in the hospital for a country the size of China, no way they could handle that number to begin with. Meaning a substantial number of people would go untreated. So if it spreads that much the mortality rate would increase substantially.

[grey_whiskers]

G'rrr. I'm not up on pop culture; and, not being into virology like you, I didn't see the film...so I missed the reference.

Go put on your red baseball cap which reads "Made You Look!" for me...:-D

[Tilted Irish Kilt]

grey_whiskers :" What is (possibly) more worrisome, is that China admitted it is transmissible before symptoms; and about 20% of those getting it, will need advanced medical care."

"China admitted it is transmissible before symptoms" show up.
Therein lies the real issue of this virus contagion !
People are infected, and are unaware that they have the disease,
and then they go about their business with others in the community, thus spreading the virus.
There is already medical evidence that there is 'human-to-human' transmission
which makes this disease quite worrisome.

[Tilted Irish Kilt]

Infectious Disease Ping - Wuhan virus Update - Mortality and Infection Rate

grey_whiskers : What is (possibly) more worrisome, is that China admitted
it is transmissible before symptoms; and about 20% of those getting it, will need advanced medical care."

"China admitted it is transmissible before symptoms" show up .
Therein lies the real issue of this virus contagion !
People are infected, and are unaware that they have the disease,
and then they go about their business with others in the community, thus spreading the virus.
There is already medical evidence that there is 'human-to-human' transmission
which makes this disease quite worrisome and leads to further spreading.
Also, the need for advanced medical care means that when the hospital
and medical staff get overwhelmed, the last place you want to be is at the hospital.
Late arrivals to an overwhelmed hospital just become a statistic.
Better to have 'over the counter' medications at home to deal with it,
rather than go to hospital and be ignored.

[metmom]

"China admitted it is transmissible before symptoms" show up .

Many viruses are.

That's how they spread so easily.

If it were contagious only after symptoms showed up, then it would be easy to isolate and stop.

[aquila48]

“Man, I love virology. And viruses are everywhere.”

What stands out about life down to even a single cell or even a virus is its drive to survive and multiply (prosper? ), even if it’s at the evpense of other life.

Makes you wonder where and how that singular purpose came about.

[11th_VA]

Makes you wonder where and how that singular purpose came about

Do you remember this scene from Jaws ?

[Ancesthntr]

“It is not SARS it is not the Spanish flu. Just a thing that needs to be contained and a lot of talk will go on about it”

---

You may be correct (and, frankly, I hope and pray that you are). At the same time, I believe virtually nothing that the Chinese government tells us. Instead, I look to what they are actually doing: moving heaven and earth to build 2 hospitals in 10 days(!!!) and quarantining 50 million people with their regular army. I do not pretend to have knowledge about the specifics of this particular disease, nor about the impact so far, but it is pretty apparent that the Chinese government DOES know a lot more than any of us do, and that what they do know about it scares the ever-living crap out of them. No one does these things just for fun, or on a dare, or to beat their chest about how great they are - no, they are in full panic mode.