Posted on 12/01/2019 6:06:16 AM PST by Eddie01
At around 8:30am on November 26th, what appeared to be a potential violation of the tightly controlled airspace ringing Washington D.C. occurred, sparking off a course of events that drew national attention. The White House and the Capitol went into lockdown as a Coast Guard MH-65, callsign Blackjack, scrambled to intercept the possible intruder and F-16s were sent to runway alert at Andrews AFB, prepared to rocket into the sky if needed at a moment's notice. Confusion followed as to what exactly was detected and why. Now, according to officials with direct knowledge of the events, here is what actually occurred. Mysterious Airspace Violation That Triggered D.C. Lockdowns Highlights Air Defense ChallengesBy Joseph Trevithick Posted in The War Zone Missile Defense Madness: Myth Of Perfect Patriots, Magic THAAD, And The ICBM ShieldBy Tyler Rogoway Posted in The War Zone You Need To Hear These FAA Tapes From That Oregon UFO Incident That Sent F-15s ScramblingBy Tyler Rogoway Posted in The War Zone The Strike On Saudi Oil Facilities Was Unprecedented And It Underscores Far Greater IssuesBy Tyler Rogoway Posted in The War Zone America's Startling Short Range Air Defense Gap And How To Close It FastBy Tyler Rogoway Posted in The War Zone
Before we begin, one must understand that the Washington D.C. Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) is a chunk of airspace that rings the Capital. From its center, the Special Flight Rules Area reaches out roughly 30 miles in any direction, with the Flight Restriction Zone being a bubble within the ADIZ with a radius of roughly half that distance. The ADIZ is supported by a large number of highly networked, but disparate sensors, including various radars, electro-optical and infrared cameras, and other passive sensors to closely surveil the skies in the area for potential threats. And yes, it is backed up by medium-range NASAMS surface-to-air missile systems scattered around the region, as well as Avenger short-range missile systems near key locales. Beyond that, MH-65 Dolphin helicopters at Reagan National Airport stand alert to intercept any slow-moving targets, while F-16Cs do the same at Andrews Air Force Base for faster-moving ones. USAF
Fully armed and ready to go F-16s sit engines running at Andrews AFB. The LITENING targeting pod is used for long-range air-to-air visual identification of targets.
30 miles may sound like a lot, but it is anything but. A subsonic jet traveling at cruise speed can cross that distance in less than four minutes. A single-engine light plane can do it in less than fifteen minutes. If the threat, such as a drone, pops up deep inside the airspace already, these times get cut down to nothing. The missiles are there, in part, because it may be impossible to get an F-16 or MH-65 in the air fast enough to deal with a hostile actor. So, air defenders that are tasked with this incredibly challenging mission work in seconds and single miles when it comes to reaction and decision-making times.
This is a tough business with the highest stakes imaginable.
On top of this, the system has been upgraded in recent years in key areas to be able to detect small radar cross-section and slow-moving targets that are out of the detection capabilities of more traditional radar systems. Once again, all these sources are networked to improve target processing fidelity, reduce the chance for horrific mistakes, and to give operators and commanders the best information possible in the least amount of time.
Our sources tell us that although it is not uncommon for birds to be the cause of false alerts multiple times a month around this time a year, the issue that occurred on the 26th was a radar anomaly that was compounded by human error. One of the radars that feeds data into the integrated air defense system created what is called a "mirror track" of an innocuous and in-contact airplane whose transponder was squawking that it was under visual flight rules (VFR). Because it was a mirror track of just the transponder, there is no primary radar return where the mirror track was, the system pointed it out immediately and started automatically pointing electro-optical camera systems at it to validate the return and to identify what it actually was.
Apparently, the D.C. area's integrated air surveillance system is good enough that transponder tracks alone, where the radar doesn't also have a corresponding hard radar return, nearly never occur. But in this case, it was an anomaly happening within the radar system, not the result of lack of radar coverage or fidelity.
When the cameras pointed at the mirror track's location, they saw a real plane that was located roughly along the same azimuth as the mirror track. The issue is that since cameras cannot quantify range, it validated that something was there, but in reality, that plane was not at the range the radar showed the mirror track to be, it was much farther away. In other words, if a plane was actually where the mirror track should have been, the cameras would have seen two airplanes, not just one. As a result of this confusion, more cameras started being pointed at the target automatically.
At this time, the mirror track faded away, so the cameras had no automated radar data left to point to. Human operators took over and they started manually scanning the area for something that wasn't there anymore. There have been reports of ‘blobs’ being seen by the air defense system operators during this instance. Our sources made it clear that this is anything but uncommon as looking into the sky with long focal length cameras results in blobs, especially when scattered clouds are present. There is simply nothing substantial or defining to look at. U.S. Air Force image by Senior Airman Christopher Reel
An Air Force air traffic controller working with his terminal.
The entire detection period of the mirror track only lasted a number of seconds before the radar picture returned to normal. Those directly operating the radar system knew close to immediately it was just a glitch/anomaly, but by this time, other operators were looking everywhere on camera for anything they can find, and the incident was escalating up the command and control ladder. As such, the powers that be didn't want to discount the situation too quickly. Remember, there is literally no margin for error when it comes to countering a real threat and the nature of potential threats Washington D.C. air defenders could face has evolved dramatically recently. What could look like a flock of birds could end up being something far more nefarious in the years to come.
So, once the wheels were in motion, it was really too late to stop them. This included downstream impacts like locking down high-risk targets around the Mall. But that isn't such a bad thing as this was about making absolutely sure nothing was in the airspace that was a threat, not about having a quick trigger finger. The exact opposite actually.
It's also worth noting that the sensors and support systems that enable the air defense mission around DC are very capable, and continue to get upgraded, but like any complex system of system, some parts remain a bit behind in terms of cutting-edge technology. The system will only get better with time, and in the end, people have to interpret the information and make the best calls they can. Considering the firepower at their disposal within a dense urban area, they have done a good job over the years at making sure nobody gets hurt because of inevitable imperfections in mechanical systems and the software they run on.
This should be the final takeaway, no matter how advanced a mechanical system or the larger architecture it is embedded with may be, it has the potential to be imperfect. Humans build these systems and write the code for their software and we are fallible. Above all else, aerial surveillance and air defense is far from a perfect science as we have pointed out time and time again. The average person's perception of it being significantly otherwise is so far outside the realm of reality that it is quite frustrating at times. In the end, it comes down to the training and expertise of those who operate these systems and who would be forced to make very tough calls in very short amounts of time as a result of the data they provide.
So, while the mechanical system failed momentarily in a minor way, the overall human system prevailed where it mattered most.
Can you translate that for us?
Ignore that.
Missed that junk in my clean up.
Someone didn’t take the time to properly post.
My takeaway is that we have a staggering amount of hardware and manpower and cash dedicated round the clock to something with a tiny chance of occurring...and when it did occur it wasn’t prevented.
That's heartening. But, more generally in society, that seems to be the case less often, as PC attitudes and legalistic thinking gain the upper hand over common sense.
Or, if you prefer a military example of lost common sense, refer to the ship collision where the two ladies on the bridge weren't talking to each other and sharing radar/navigation information.
DC cowards flee into bomb shelters and F-16s scrabble at a slight breeze. They are ringed by high tech protection and missiles.
Meanwhile... down at the southern border
A Flock of Seagulls is touring again?
A Combat Air Patrol orbiting the area could investigate quickly....
And, last night (4:30 am London Time),two supersonic jets broke the sound barrier over downtown London looking for targets THEY had been alerted to seek down.
No coincidence of course.
Yup. Security for me, but not for thee.
In fact, the less secure you feel, the more votes I get to take away your freedoms (but I’ll never do anything to actually make you more secure, that would stop the treadmill!)...
Thanks Robert A Cook PE.
All this, and the goat humpers still landed a 707 into the side of the Pentagon. Not very good bang for the buck, I’d say.
re: “Can you translate that for us?”
Glitch.
But first, a shaggy dog story...
IOW, it took them 3 days to come up the a story about a flock of birds and a few seconds of computer glitch. Sounds like a neat distraction to sneak into the backdoor of all that fancy security.
If you go to the webpage you will see they are headlines for other articles.Very poorly written article. I still don’t know what happened beyond the system screwed up. Was it birds? Was it something else?
Articles like that I have to read a few times before I can understand them.
After reading it only once, it sounds like their various safeguards are so sophisticated that they detected a false alarm........or maybe not.
So I'd give this a passing grade.
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