Posted on 10/30/2019 10:03:12 AM PDT by Vigilanteman
Key Points
•Auto sales have crashed, the unsold inventory and delinquent debt may worsen well into 2020.
•This auto-led downturn may be less damaging to the global economy than the housing bust was 10 years ago, but automobile manufacturing still accounts for a sizable amount of production, debt, and jobs.
In 2009, the world economy was starting to climb out of a housing-led downturn. Ten years later, a downturn in auto production following tumbling car sales is driving a bust in manufacturing and threatening a recession for the global economy. This auto-led downturn may be significantly less damaging to the overall economy than the housing bust, but is no minor threat considering the amount of production, debt, trade, commodities, and even jobs tied to the making of automobiles. The auto inventory and debt hangover may last well into 2020.
Manufacturing-led downturn
Manufacturing output has slowed sharply around the world, slowing overall economic growth. This can best be seen in the resulting drawdown of excess inventories acting as a drag on economic growth.
(Excerpt) Read more at schwab.com ...
Jeeps need stuff. Comes with the territory.
More than a few CJs in my life and have two apart.
Yes but its 3 years old. Jeez. Radiator leaking. No damage? Just wow.
Maybe the next downturn is just around the corner, but in my 66 years in South West Ohio I have never before seen so many temp tags on new vehicles.
The US auto industry is just slightly behind 2018 in volume. Yes, they are fueling sales with incentives, but they have been predicting a collapse in auto sales for 4 years now.
It has not happened yet. Will it? Sure. Markets go up and down. But softness in one does not take everything down.
Women, children and Asians hardest hit...
“They need to bring back those 80’s mini trucks.”
Ford is bringing back the Ranger, but it’s anything but “low-end”.
“A buddy of mine replaced his gas tank on a f150. Almost $2000 with labor.”
Factory Brembo brake calipers on my wife’s Camaro SS are $2800 pair. Hope they never go out.
I had to replace all the brake lines on my 2004 z71. I bought stainless steel from Amazon for a little over a hundred. Then I saw what it would take to do it. I paid the dealership $850 and was glad to do it.
The instrument cluster went dead and I paid a place in Georgia $75 to fix it. Two years later it went out again. I saw a youtube video that pinpointed a cluster of four diodes that could have bad solder joints. I looked at mine and one did look iffy. I very carefully resoldered without getting it too hot. It fixed it. That was a year ago. So far, so good.
The knob that controls the air flow for the heater/AC is always on “defrost”. I bought the $20 motor to fix it, but you have to pretty much dismantle the entire dash to get to it. So I’m fine with defrost only...
I gave up on my 2004 Tahoe z71. I soldiered the intranet cluster too. Lol. Rear Brake lines when out when driving. Thank God for the redundant system and the front still worked. Traded it for the jeep 3 years ago. It had 200k on it.
Lol. Agreed. Get yourself a second car as a beater. No, wait?
But the dang thing not only won’t die, but it’s still FUN to drive. And I don’t care about parking lot dents or anything. Only problem is my wife won’t allow herself to be caught dead in it.
The problem is that I’m hearing that it just may have a couple hundred thousand more miles in it. Maybe I should have fixed the body damage. :)
Yeah, if someone has one of the GM truck offerings from that time period, it’s pretty much when, not if your cluster goes bad.
We have a ‘93 4Runner that has been pretty reliable for us. We bought it new. We just had the water pump replaced and will pick it up today. But our plan is to keep it and maintain it until the wheels fall off. She is an old girl but she still has a bit of life in her.
Wheels and tires are replaceable.
Ol Betsy can become expensive to repair at some point, I guess. However, she is paid for so that is a huge plus.
There are after market solutions for these high end brake systems. My auto dealer that was recently bought out wanted to charge me over $5K for a break job on my 10 year old car that is probably worth $10K or so. I found better after market products for half the cost which I decided not to install, Instead, I ran down to the local Farm and Fleet and had them install brakes for ~$500.
Unions are killing the car industry. I refuse to pay $30K+ for any new car, I won’t do it. The last new vehicle I bought was a loaded Mazda MPV for my wife in 2003 and I paid $21K for it and we drove it a dozen years, 190K miles on it and we traded for a used vehicle.
When you hit that $20-$22K mark you are pricing yourself out of my range even for a used car. It gets me to work and home. If it has XM fine if not fine. Nor do I care about navigation and all that other crap. I want auto transmission, power windows, a cold AC, cruise control and a decent AM/FM radio.
I currently am running four vehicles, all bought used, three with 100K+ miles and one with 40K miles. I expect three of the four to go another 100k+ miles. One is closing in on 200K, if I can get another 100K out of it I will be in high cotton. It’s a 13 Nissan Murano and I am hoping the tranny holds out, so far no issues.
Why do you suppose GM let the UAW strike for a month?
To reduce the oversupply of 2020 autos!
This nonsense about the strike "costing" GM $2 Billion is...well....NONSENSE!
turbo charger is a deal breaker for me anyway. I put a lot of miles on cars and it’s all about reliability.
I bought a 2013 Scion FR-S for my commute in 2013. It now has 180k miles on it and is going strong. My 2006 Scion xB 5 speed manual has 220k miles on it. I’m putting in a new radiator ($38). Other than that, it STILL drives like a new car, though It could use new shocks. Smooth like puddin’.
The former cost $25k and the latter cost $17k new. I also own a 2017 Scion xA and a 2004 Chevy Silverado Z71. That last one is an utter piece of crap. The only thing that HASN’T broken on that car is the drive train. But at 112k miles it should just be getting broken in...
...
The Cash for Clunkers 2009 or so program really hurt used car inventory. With the Advent of so many airbags and backup cameras and so forth new cars got ridiculously expensive and my understanding is people are having them repoed at a higher rate right now.
On an aside I have a 2005 Scion xB with 165,000 miles on it which I love and it used to be my company car and I gave it to my youngest son and we are taking care of it. I also have a 2015 Scion xB which sadly is the last year of that car. That has 40,000 miles on it as of yesterday. I do believe that these Scions are basically a Toyota Corolla engine. I also have a 1999 RAV4 with 165000 miles on it that threw a rod from the mechanic who was fixing it and he gave me a top half of the engine at no additional charge. The engine is 100% sealed perfectly and does not even make a single drop of oil on the garage floor unbelievable.
Paid $$$ for a new 2016 F-150 XLT V-8. $28K (Out the door at $31K). Sticker was $42K+.
“I need the big bad full size diesel, but they’re also dang near 100k these days. It’s ridiculous.”
I don’t have a choice! I bought a 73 Chevy 3/4 with 60K miles on it... Sold it three months later due to leg cramp and back pain. That’s what happens when you’re 6’7”, size 15 shoe and weigh around 250-260 lbs. I buy cars and trucks by how I fit!!!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.