Posted on 10/30/2019 10:03:12 AM PDT by Vigilanteman
Key Points
•Auto sales have crashed, the unsold inventory and delinquent debt may worsen well into 2020.
•This auto-led downturn may be less damaging to the global economy than the housing bust was 10 years ago, but automobile manufacturing still accounts for a sizable amount of production, debt, and jobs.
In 2009, the world economy was starting to climb out of a housing-led downturn. Ten years later, a downturn in auto production following tumbling car sales is driving a bust in manufacturing and threatening a recession for the global economy. This auto-led downturn may be significantly less damaging to the overall economy than the housing bust, but is no minor threat considering the amount of production, debt, trade, commodities, and even jobs tied to the making of automobiles. The auto inventory and debt hangover may last well into 2020.
Manufacturing-led downturn
Manufacturing output has slowed sharply around the world, slowing overall economic growth. This can best be seen in the resulting drawdown of excess inventories acting as a drag on economic growth.
(Excerpt) Read more at schwab.com ...
Well, with my 150 mile round trip commute, leasing would be a bad thing.
It does remind me of a story my Uncle used to tell at the pool hall back in 1961 in a small town. It was of this guy he knew that was a janitor that bought a brand new Cadillac. Whenever you asked him how much it cost he always just said, “$100 a month”. He could never tell you how much it cost or how long he would be paying for it. He only knew that he was driving a brand new cadillac for $100 a month. BTW, that was a hell of a lot of money back then. And it meant that probably several years later he’d still be paying $100 a month for a beat up old Cadillac.
I think the problem with the leasing thing is that there is only a finite supply of guys like him. And as more and more of them share their story of woe with their friends as time passes, many will learn from their mistake. It may be what is happening now, for all I know.
I drive a full-size diesel pickup because I need a full-size diesel pickup.
No way in hell will I spend what they want for a new one.
So I’ll just keep fixing the one I have now.
They need to bring back those 80’s mini trucks.
My son in law the plumber was looking at small pickups.
About the same MPG as a Chevy W/T, 20MPG.
He stayed with an older minivan, the water heaters fit just fine.
Is there anything in that size range now?
It’s kinda sad when, to get the kind of vehicle you want, you have no choice but to go used.
Agreed. It is way overpriced. And, BTW a lease is a scam.
Cars and trucks are lasting much longer now because they are so well made, if you stick o the most reliable manufacturers such as Honda and Toyota.
Bought my wife a used loaded year-old used Honda Accord 3.5 years ago for about $24,000. She puts about 5,000 miles per year on the car. Once that is paid off in 2.5 years, we will never have another car payment as long as we live. That’s $400/month we will have to spend on other things; or not.
Hey, a lease is a great deal if you never drive it. :)
The turbo charger is just one of a number of "innovations" that are being forced upon us by insanely strict CAFE, emissions, and other government regulations driven by phony oil supply and climate crisis panic.
We are stuck with overly complex vehicles with bodies made with metal that is not much thicker than foil, hidden bumpers that don't even begin to operate until thousands of dollars of damage has already occurred in even in the most minor of collisions. They are coated with ecologically friendly paint that chips easily, wiring insulated and protected by materials that vermin like to eat, thin glass that cracks and chips easily, and structural components made of light flimsy plastic.
My first car had a wiring diagram that fit on a single page, spark plugs you could actually see, and maintenance needs that were satisfied by ordinary tool sets, with no computers needed.
It used to be that male kids growing up couldn't wait to get their licenses, get that first car, and get their hands dirty fixing them up.
Now cars are so insanely complex that the average person can only deal with the simplest of problems. Most people can't even be bothered with trying.
They force us to have interconnected cars that "talk" to each other to avoid accidents, cars that brake automatically for any real or imagined hazard, cars that drive themselves, cars with unbelievably complex "infotainment" systems with integrated GPS tracking and remote control capability.
No wonder they have gotten so expensive since I got my first car, and if those regulatory nannies continue to have their way, costs will continue to escalate without any end in sight.
I need the big bad full size diesel, but they’re also dang near 100k these days. It’s ridiculous.
I follow the same policy except that the last time I went to trade in a 1997 Honda Accord (210,000 miles) for something a little newer, used car prices had spiked thanks to “cash for clunkers”. Between the lower interest rates and the lower new car prices, I was better off buying new. The dealer still calls to tell me about great deals on newer cars, but I still have less than 50,000 miles on the new one.
Those minitrucks costs way more than full trucks used to not long ago.
I bought a new Tacoma last month, fairly well equipped for $31,000. The same truck cost me $15,000 in 2004. If I still had kids at home I would not have bought the truck. I don’t see how a middle class family can afford new vehicles. Imagine what the middle class market would be now without Trump.
A buddy of mine replaced his gas tank on a f150. Almost $2000 with labor. I bought one for my 77 ford for $75 and put it in myself.
I’ve seen Raptors for 125k
Was told my 3 year old jeep needs a new radiator. It’s got 30k on it.
Lol. Agreed. Get yourself a second car as a beater. No, wait?
I was thinking the same thing, they need to lower the prices. A new Jeep Truck outfitting for Max tow will run your well over $43K. New Cars and Trucks cost to much..
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