Posted on 08/15/2019 9:10:41 AM PDT by BlackFemaleArmyColonel
Some Democrats are eyeing Texas as a longshot pickup in the 2020 presidential race. But Republicans who are keeping an eye on the national electoral landscape say the party should be more concerned that Arizona could go from red to blue this time around.
“Arizona typically has been, in a presidential year, somewhere around an eight-point Republican advantage and Trump only won Arizona with about three points. So, I definitely think Arizona is very competitive from my perspective," Paul Bentz, vice president of research and strategy at High Ground, a Phoenix-based firm specializing in public opinion surveys, strategy, and campaign management, told the Washington Examiner. "Arizona is more likely to be a toss-up than Texas is."
President Bill Clinton was the last Democrat to win Arizona, in 1996. Before that, Democrat Harry S. Truman pulled an election upset when he won the presidency with Arizona in 1948 against Republican Thomas Dewey. Republican presidential nominees have won the Copper State in all the other election cycles.
Senior Political Correspondent David Drucker on the expanded Washington Examiner magazine
In 2008, although then-Illinois Democratic Sen. Barack Obama was a popular nominee who went on to win the presidency, Arizona Republican Sen. John McCain, his opponent, was still beloved among his constituents and captured his own state. McCain won 54% to 45%, a near inverse of the popular vote nationally.
But recent electoral trends in the state have Republican strategists concerned. The 2018 Senate victory of then-Arizona Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, a former Green Party activist — the first in her party to be elected to the Senate since the 1980s — has Republicans reassessing their dominance.
“In 2018 instead of that typical 50% turnout that we've seen in the past, it was nearly 65% turnout. So not quite presidential level...”
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonexaminer.com ...
I agree. Trump will take AZ and McSally will lose. I heard Curt Schilling is contemplating a run.
Can Kelli Ward make it happen as head of the AZ GOP?
Rino Republicans fear everything.
Sinema ran boasting of her support for Trump. And the GOP McSally had distanced herself from him - until she needed him! I’m honestly not sure Sinema isn’t more likely to act for Arizona than McSally is...and I argued strongly FOR McSally during the election.
Judging from my neighbors...Trump has more support now than in 2016. A number of people have told me “I held my nose” or “I just couldn’t do it”. Now? “I’ll beat down the doors to get there and vote FOR Trump!”
If enough California LIBERALS have moved to Arizona it’s possible for the Red state to be turned to Blue.
Curt Schilling running as a Trump backing Republican in Arizona, should be worth additional Trump inspired voters in other States also. It would help bring Conservat4ives baffled by the nearly unanimous media smear campaign, back into positive action. (He would be seen as above any “politics as usual” innuendo.)
“I wonder how long it will be before Arizona outlaws Constitutional Carry?”
A LONG, LONG TIME!
Good grief!
Generally speaking, mail-in ballots tend to favor Republicans.
“Nonsense.”
____________________
I’m with you.
Donald Trump was an unknown quantity in 2016.
His policies have worked great for the country, in spite of the RAT onslaught on him for two and a half years. He will win re-election based on his impressive record.
I can’t see Arizona going for Creepy Joe Biden, the Fake Indian, crazy Bernie, or any of these other RAT idiots.
No, this is different... This is mail-in only, not mail-in due to cause (like being out of town).
Trump will win AZ but they have been building THOUSANDS of new apartments in Maricopa county. Doesn’t bode well for future.
Trump will not lose AZ; the AZ establishment is the culprit here. Thank God Kelli Ward is in position to re-direct the AZ (R) Party.
Well said...
Cuckshed supreme
Say what?
I don't think it's all that close. Urban areas of Phoenix and Tucson are trying hard to emulate Los Angeles and San Francisco, but any Democrat running against Trump has no chance in the heavily populated and still very red suburbs. The large and sparsely populated rural areas are a wash, since there are so many reservations.
Now, take Trump out of the equation and things are different. If the GOP offers up a McCain or McSally-like presidential candidate in 2024 and Democrats wise up enough to nominate a military veteran, things could get dicey for the Republicans.
Candidate Trump won AZ 49.03% to Clintons 45.46%.
Libertarian Gary Johnson had around 4%. Commie Jill Stein had a little over 1%.
Too close for comfort for me, especially since Candidate Trump didn’t even break 50%.
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