I don't think it's all that close. Urban areas of Phoenix and Tucson are trying hard to emulate Los Angeles and San Francisco, but any Democrat running against Trump has no chance in the heavily populated and still very red suburbs. The large and sparsely populated rural areas are a wash, since there are so many reservations.
Now, take Trump out of the equation and things are different. If the GOP offers up a McCain or McSally-like presidential candidate in 2024 and Democrats wise up enough to nominate a military veteran, things could get dicey for the Republicans.
Candidate Trump won AZ 49.03% to Clintons 45.46%.
Libertarian Gary Johnson had around 4%. Commie Jill Stein had a little over 1%.
Too close for comfort for me, especially since Candidate Trump didn’t even break 50%.