Posted on 08/15/2019 9:10:41 AM PDT by BlackFemaleArmyColonel
Some Democrats are eyeing Texas as a longshot pickup in the 2020 presidential race. But Republicans who are keeping an eye on the national electoral landscape say the party should be more concerned that Arizona could go from red to blue this time around.
“Arizona typically has been, in a presidential year, somewhere around an eight-point Republican advantage and Trump only won Arizona with about three points. So, I definitely think Arizona is very competitive from my perspective," Paul Bentz, vice president of research and strategy at High Ground, a Phoenix-based firm specializing in public opinion surveys, strategy, and campaign management, told the Washington Examiner. "Arizona is more likely to be a toss-up than Texas is."
President Bill Clinton was the last Democrat to win Arizona, in 1996. Before that, Democrat Harry S. Truman pulled an election upset when he won the presidency with Arizona in 1948 against Republican Thomas Dewey. Republican presidential nominees have won the Copper State in all the other election cycles.
Senior Political Correspondent David Drucker on the expanded Washington Examiner magazine
In 2008, although then-Illinois Democratic Sen. Barack Obama was a popular nominee who went on to win the presidency, Arizona Republican Sen. John McCain, his opponent, was still beloved among his constituents and captured his own state. McCain won 54% to 45%, a near inverse of the popular vote nationally.
But recent electoral trends in the state have Republican strategists concerned. The 2018 Senate victory of then-Arizona Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, a former Green Party activist — the first in her party to be elected to the Senate since the 1980s — has Republicans reassessing their dominance.
“In 2018 instead of that typical 50% turnout that we've seen in the past, it was nearly 65% turnout. So not quite presidential level...”
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonexaminer.com ...
Not buying that. No sale.
Perhaps...but it didn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that House Republicans were in trouble, particularly given Ryan, Mueller still running around, and that Trump wasn’t on the ballot.
As to concern trolls, I wouldn’t have made the comment if it were Michigan, PA, or Wisconsin, but if Trump has to worry about Arizona, or Alabama for that matter, he might as well not run in 2020.
Many retired Republicans were unsure about Trump in 2016 and did not vote.
Those Republicans will now vote affirmatively for Trump in 2020....especially if it prevents socialism.
Demographics may turn Arizona blue one day. But probably not in 2020.
Arizona has a strange breed of conservatism. Too many influences like Mormons, Indians, Californians, Mexicans, and that wacky Sedona mentality.
They aren’t reliable beyond McCain, Flake, Sally, Systenesa the lesbo, etc.
In my experience, “conservative” in Arizona means “retired from the Air Force in 2008...”.
Nothing may be taken for granted in the coming election, and we don’t even know whom Trump will be matched up against.
It does not matter is the person is an old-line “moderate” Democrat, or one of the most extreme out there. The propaganda machine known as the “mainstream media” will be running overtime and full speed ahead to A) delegitimize Trump to the degree they can, whether or not there is any basis; and B) exalt and elevate whatever person happens to end up the nominee for the Democrats, regardless of how much of a rascal or even criminal that person may be in reality.
This, on the face of it, is a most daunting task. Trump shall have to be out there campaigning on a near-daily basis at times, and at least several times each month as the run-up to the general election. The entire GOP delegation to the Congress, and every Republican governor throughout the US. will have to be on board with the Trump Train. And the rank and file will have to be out there, knocking on doors and talking to neighbors. Sometimes, these talks will not be comfortable, or may even become unproductive, but that is no reason to shrink from the task.
Marshall your explanations, don’t try to force confrontations, and be respectful, even if the other party in the conversation is not. Sometimes, that is the greater shaming, and may even get the other person to talk themselves into at least grudging agreement.
The AZ GOP stabbing Conservatives is one of its problems.
Thanks to McCain, it is highly infiltrated with Liberals and Mormon Mafia.
They are doing the same thing in Idaho and Montana.
We took Arizona off our Retirement move to List after seeing what is happening there.
I wonder how long it will be before Arizona outlaws Constitutional Carry?
I have Friends living there who are died in the wool Trumpsters. Pretty soon the Commiefornia Borg will be assimilating them.
Imposing new gun control will certainly not help Trump win Arizona.
2018 was a baby Blue Wave Election!
“.but it didn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that House Republicans were in trouble”
Don’t forget vote harvesting. To me that was the most alarming aspect of the 2018 House elections, at least in California. I’m surprised we’re not hearing more about it with the 2020 elections on the horizon.
I know, I was thinking that too. The entire vote-by-mail concept needs to be THROWN OUT by a court, there is no way to ensure voting secrecy in that type of system.
...but where’s our side - crickets.
Massive cheating last election; AZ could be lost.
I think California will do solidly Dem no matter who they nominate. Arizona I am pretty comfortable with as a Trump state in 2020. The primary problem we have here is the lackluster House and Senate candidates that seem to dominate the GOP side of things. I am not at all confident that McSally can win
They elected Sinema(D) to the senate, but she has actually been ok, so far.
Talking about the 2020 election.
“...“Arizona typically has been, in a presidential year, somewhere around an eight-point Republican advantage and Trump only won Arizona with about three points.”
One SMALL detail... Trump wasn’t an INCUMBENT president THEN.
He WILL BE in 2020.
When anyone makes these ridiculous statements just respond “Russia, Russia, Russia”.
They have a year to make sure it doesn’t happen.
At least getting back the house seats we lost in 2018 would be a huge win. I really hope the GOP focus’ on that big time in California.
So about a year ago we were visiting central AZ. We decided to get lost because sometime you have the best times. We ended up at a tavern in Tonto Village. Everyone knew each other except us. Finally a bearded oldtimer came over and “sniffed” us out. We passed the smell taste and had a fantastic afternoon. One of those times that may ever be replicated.
Great people!
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