Posted on 08/15/2019 9:10:41 AM PDT by BlackFemaleArmyColonel
Some Democrats are eyeing Texas as a longshot pickup in the 2020 presidential race. But Republicans who are keeping an eye on the national electoral landscape say the party should be more concerned that Arizona could go from red to blue this time around.
“Arizona typically has been, in a presidential year, somewhere around an eight-point Republican advantage and Trump only won Arizona with about three points. So, I definitely think Arizona is very competitive from my perspective," Paul Bentz, vice president of research and strategy at High Ground, a Phoenix-based firm specializing in public opinion surveys, strategy, and campaign management, told the Washington Examiner. "Arizona is more likely to be a toss-up than Texas is."
President Bill Clinton was the last Democrat to win Arizona, in 1996. Before that, Democrat Harry S. Truman pulled an election upset when he won the presidency with Arizona in 1948 against Republican Thomas Dewey. Republican presidential nominees have won the Copper State in all the other election cycles.
Senior Political Correspondent David Drucker on the expanded Washington Examiner magazine
In 2008, although then-Illinois Democratic Sen. Barack Obama was a popular nominee who went on to win the presidency, Arizona Republican Sen. John McCain, his opponent, was still beloved among his constituents and captured his own state. McCain won 54% to 45%, a near inverse of the popular vote nationally.
But recent electoral trends in the state have Republican strategists concerned. The 2018 Senate victory of then-Arizona Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, a former Green Party activist — the first in her party to be elected to the Senate since the 1980s — has Republicans reassessing their dominance.
“In 2018 instead of that typical 50% turnout that we've seen in the past, it was nearly 65% turnout. So not quite presidential level...”
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonexaminer.com ...
It has been Californicating at an alarming rate.
“But recent electoral trends in the state have Republican strategists concerned. The 2018 Senate victory of then-Arizona Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, a former Green Party activist — the first in her party to be elected to the Senate since the 1980s — has Republicans reassessing their dominance. “
of course the GOPe gve us juan mccain lite to run against Sinema, so what does one expect?
We are looking at a whole year of this stuff. This looks bad for Trump, that looks bad for Trump, there is no path for Trump to win...
I’m immune to it. I’m going to vote for President Trump as many times as I can. :)
Roberts
Concern trolls on our side (not you, of course) are back at it. If Trump runs a national campaign based on what he’s done and what he will do, Arizona will fall into place. More Leftist crap here...
Nope. Trump will carry AZ by a larger margin than in 2016, but McSally is in trouble. We may see a repeat of 2018 where Ducey ran way ahead of McSally.
To which one of the commies in the clown bus? Go away
Nonsense. Trump will win AZ by a bigger margin than in 2016.
It doesn’t help when you run Republicans like McCain, Flake and Sally. A ditz in a mini-skirt who casts an occasional voter with Republicans can seem like an attractive alternative.
In 2016 we had people saying he wouldn’t win it because of that bald dude in Utah and the Mormons in N. Arizona all voting for him.
I’m here in AZ. I see no slipping of Trump’s support ONE IOTA.
Quite the contrary, I have talked to a few people who voted Johnson last time who are voting Trump this time.
Yet to find one single Trump voter who regrets his vote.
And AZ GOP still has 145,000 net edge. With McSally, the problem was that 10% of GOP either voted Ward as a write in or voted for Enema.
Sinema was allowed by a weak opponent to cast herself as temperamentally moderate, just as Tammy Baldwin did in her first run in Wisconsin.
I moved here from Georgia and will do my part to support the president.
... because homes and cost of living are just a tiny fraction of homes here.
Regarding Democrats possibly winning Arizona, Washington Post is ignoring that patriots in all states will be remembering eight years of oppression under lawless Obama versus four years of winning under PDJT by time of 2020 elections.
The GOPe dont get that Trump’s voters are not GOP voters.
Their canidates win whatever they get or not independent of the President.
Thanks, there’s no shortage of states for Trump to worry about, but Arizona isn’t one of them. This is silly stuff...maybe put out from local Republicans who want some bucks from the national party.
“Why, Trump is doing SO POORLY that Hillary could even win Texas. TEXAS!”- CNN 2016
In 2020, California will be a toss-up but Arizona will not be a toss-up.
“Concern trolls on our side...”
Those of us so-called concern trolls are not that at all. we are people who have a different view of things. We like Trump, we voted for him, we support him financially, etc. - but we are open to other possibilities.
Last fall, I said several times that the Democrats could gain control of the House. I explained why (California, the suburbs and the northeast states) it could happen. I said that their path was not all that hard.
I was right - and I wish I weren’t. That was one of those things were I’d have loved to have been proven wrong. But my point is that those of us out there who post something different from the established line of thinking aren’t concern trolls.
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