Posted on 07/18/2019 5:00:18 PM PDT by nwrep
Rachel Bitecofer, the assistant director of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Virginia’s Christopher Newport University, created a unique prediction model that almost perfectly foretold in July 2018 the results of the 2018 midterm election. (The model concluded the Democrats would pick up 42 House seats; the Dems gained 40 seats.)
Bitecofer’s model has concluded that it matters not who the Democratic presidential nominee is -- “unless it ends up being a disruptor like Bernie Sanders.” Whoever wins the Democratic nomination -- other than possibly Bernie, that is -- will defeat Trump in the general election.
The only unexpected factors that might make Bitecofer revisit her Trump-loses prediction: the launch of a well-funded independent campaign by someone like Howard Schultz, the sudden onset of an economic recession, a war with Iran or a large-scale terrorist attack. “Otherwise,” she says, “the country’s hyper-partisan and polarized environment has largely set the conditions of the 2020 election in stone.”
“The complacent electorate of 2016, who were convinced Trump would never be president,” she writes, “has been replaced with the terrified electorate of 2020, who are convinced he’s the Terminator and can’t be stopped. Under my model, that distinction is not only important, it is everything.”
I think it has been proven mathematically that Perot made no difference.No math was needed.
George (read my lips, thousand points of light, new world order) Bush lost because he was a lying fraud.
He only won the first time because everyone thought he would carry on with Reagan's policies... you know, the ones he called "voodoo" economics.
He was a low-life lying arrogant little weasel pretending to be a Republican and his sons are no better.
Good riddance to all of them.
She did better then FREEPERS who thought we lose at most 10 seats. Losing the house as been devestating.
That’s a juvenile reply. First, how long someone has been at a site has nothing to do with the validity of what they say.
Second, this particular trash and propaganda was posted here weeks ago.
https://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3760936/posts
Third, I didn’t say it “couldn’t be posted” I said there was “no need” to repost it. There’s a distinct difference there.
The fact remains that It’s propaganda and trash designed to dishearten and discourage supporters of the President. The fact that it was heavily discussed and has its own thread is indicative of my point.
"The complacent electorate of 2016, who were convinced Trump would never be president,” she writes, “has been replaced with the terrified electorate of 2020, who are convinced he’s the Terminator and can’t be stopped. Under my model, that distinction is not only important, it is everything.”
This "terrified electorate" (i.e. The woke, pod-eating snowflakes on the news in NEW YORK AND CALIFORNIA where greater snowflake turnout means nothing) is contrast - and seemingly missed in this model - by the beaten-down Americans circa 2016 who stayed home because they were convinced Hillary would be president.
This resurrected American/new Deplorable electorate of 2020 - of all shapes, sizes, colors, etc- are convinced the DNC will stop at nothing to Make America Suck Again, and their turnout will swamp the terrified electorate.
This is validated by LS' voter registration tracking.
Bull shiite.
Shes not factoring in the electorate that put Trump in, in the first place, being under the same perpetual attack the last 4 years from the gynosociety powers that be.
Does this election model depend on the Mueller Report continuing 10 months after no collusion was determined and 95% negative spin has been ginned up in the media for four years leading into the 2020 election?f
I wish republicans kept the house even by a vote or two. This house is insane.
Well, boys, that’s the ballgame. We may as well pack it all up and go home.
People don’t vote against their wallets.
EVERYONE I know is swamped with work. Had not been like this is years and years. Who the hell is going to vote against that.
Besides, I don’t think one of these Dems appeal to the vast number of Americans. They are all far too extreme for most people.
Democrats will be going whole hog on vote harvesting. If Republicans do not figure out a way to stop that NOW, post-2020 will be a one-party communist dictatorship. Trump will have to handle this himself. The moribund, inept Republican Party apparatus will do nothing, then wring their hands in the aftermath.
Rachel Bitecofer predicted a Hillary victory.
Also, there is no world wide gigantic monetary depression right now! Nor is there horrendous inflation, as was the case in Germany in the 1930s!
And then there was the historic anti-Semetism that was pervasive throughout much of Europe and still is.
Wait an economic downturn will help Trump according to this? I call BS.
100% chance she is a leftist or a never Trumper. This is about influence, not analysis
Consider that he barely won in states that usually go dem, plus the dem excitement level is thru the roof. They HATE trump. The left wing is totally energized against trump. They dont care who the dem candidate is they are against trump. THAT is what this woman is saying when she says her study shows every one but a total nut will beat him. She is also saying some voters are tired of all the drama, the tweets, the judges ruling against him, the cabinet turnover, basically the overall level of chaos that trump thrives on but many are insecure about.
The reason her study should be taken seriously is that the anti trump movement by dems, leftists, media, never trumpers, is unanimous. All trump has in his corner is his base, a minority of voters. Hopefully most independents + some dems who are apolitical will join his voters.
Dont mistake the enthusiasm for trump among his base as being a majority. It isn’t. Trumps campaign people hve a. Short window to suceed.
“Not sure i would arrogantly dismiss the predictions of someone who ended up being 100% correct.”
except that there are at least a half a dozen models that go back all the way to WWII that have predicted every President but one, and ALL of THOSE models predict Trump will win ...
Wow, they got 2018 right!
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