"The complacent electorate of 2016, who were convinced Trump would never be president,” she writes, “has been replaced with the terrified electorate of 2020, who are convinced he’s the Terminator and can’t be stopped. Under my model, that distinction is not only important, it is everything.”
This "terrified electorate" (i.e. The woke, pod-eating snowflakes on the news in NEW YORK AND CALIFORNIA where greater snowflake turnout means nothing) is contrast - and seemingly missed in this model - by the beaten-down Americans circa 2016 who stayed home because they were convinced Hillary would be president.
This resurrected American/new Deplorable electorate of 2020 - of all shapes, sizes, colors, etc- are convinced the DNC will stop at nothing to Make America Suck Again, and their turnout will swamp the terrified electorate.
This is validated by LS' voter registration tracking.
All the voter reg data shows is a slight but steady improvement in GOP over Dem registrations in several key states.
By itself it isn’t enough to overcome indies, so I always assume a 50/50 split of them.
But it also assunes the GOP turns out & votes R, something they didn’t do in AZ.