Posted on 07/18/2019 5:00:18 PM PDT by nwrep
Rachel Bitecofer, the assistant director of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Virginia’s Christopher Newport University, created a unique prediction model that almost perfectly foretold in July 2018 the results of the 2018 midterm election. (The model concluded the Democrats would pick up 42 House seats; the Dems gained 40 seats.)
Bitecofer’s model has concluded that it matters not who the Democratic presidential nominee is -- “unless it ends up being a disruptor like Bernie Sanders.” Whoever wins the Democratic nomination -- other than possibly Bernie, that is -- will defeat Trump in the general election.
The only unexpected factors that might make Bitecofer revisit her Trump-loses prediction: the launch of a well-funded independent campaign by someone like Howard Schultz, the sudden onset of an economic recession, a war with Iran or a large-scale terrorist attack. “Otherwise,” she says, “the country’s hyper-partisan and polarized environment has largely set the conditions of the 2020 election in stone.”
“The complacent electorate of 2016, who were convinced Trump would never be president,” she writes, “has been replaced with the terrified electorate of 2020, who are convinced he’s the Terminator and can’t be stopped. Under my model, that distinction is not only important, it is everything.”
Bingo!
Meh... A track record of 1 poll win for a midterm election doesn’t hold much weight. I predicted the midterms correctly and didn’t need to use a poll to do so. A lot can happen between now and the election.
Perhaps some of them (like former Squeaker Ryan) were involved in Spygate in some manner. McCain sure as heck was part of it on the Senate side. Maybe Burr too, time will tell.
Bring on Ralph Nader.
Problem for the prognosticator is that half the ‘rat party hates the other half almost as much as they hate Trump, and visa versa - whoever gets the nomination will face the enmity of half the party, resulting in indifference and inaction on election day by many of those bitter, resentful losers......
Midterm House results for POTUS' 1st term ========================================== Year Dem Rep Dem +/- President / Note ---- --- --- ------- ----------------------- 1978 277 158 119+ Carter / Post Watergate 1982 243 192 51+ Reagan 1990 267 167 100+ Bush Senior 1994 204 230 26- Clinton 2002 205 229 24- Bush Junior / 911 2010 193 242 49- Obama / ACA 2018 235 199 36+ Trump
Anderson ran in 1980. Add his and Carter’s vote together and Reagan still wins.
In all honesty, we do need to keep up with what she is up to.
I realize that. We’re all so tired of hearing about her and her disgusting excuse for a husband, some of us once in a while want to address that aspect of it too.
As with anything here, some folks will post something along the lines I did, and others will be glad to read what’s going on.
I think both views are pretty legit at his point in time.
“The complacent electorate of 2016, who were convinced Trump would never be president,” she writes, “has been replaced with the terrified electorate of 2020, who are convinced he’s the Terminator and can’t be stopped. Under my model, that distinction is not only important, it is everything.”
If you look at the numbers you would find that only a handful of the seats that flipped were held by retiring congressmen.
I agree with you that with the Russian and now the campaign finance issues are done, it will help the president. I also think a lot of the 40 GOP seats that were lost were in blue States due to the perceived tax increase and not decrease people saw. I do think, however, that the president does need to focus on the policy more than the name calling, as I have stated many times. With am economy like this, he should be polling much higher.
EVERYONE I know is swamped with work. Had not been like this is years and years. Who the hell is going to vote against that.
Besides, I don’t think one of these Dems appeal to the vast number of Americans. They are all far too extreme for most people.
Right now it doesn’t look like the Democrat have a candidate who can compete with incumbency - let alone prosperity and incumbency.There’s a first time for everything, but to date nobody without the title of “Governor” has ever defeated as siting president’s reelection bid. Three of the declared candidates do have that title, and as Democrats go these days they are relatively sane. But as of now, the Democrat Party isn’t willing to give a sane politician the time of day.
This far from election day - and with so little clarity as to the identity of the eventual Democrat nominee - it is too far away to tell. Who knows how Iran is gonna play out? But,
Trump 2020
An all female or female-like ticket is what I’m expecting. Maybe even with a hail mary drop in.
I find it odd that you would think it odd that a person whose background is political science would be interested in something grounded more than the knee jerk reaction of the boys down at the manure plant.
Well, if its a guess, its a remarkably lucky and accurate one.
Political “science” LOL.
One of the most useless fields of study. Ranks down there with liberal arts, and women’s studies LOL.
Thank you I will check it out.
Okay I looked 23 republican House members retired.
Pretty much what i would expect from the manure plant workers. You have proved my point. Case closed.
Could be. Michelle would fit both.The real question to me is the international situation - read, Iran.
If Iran gets hot, tho, Michelle’s hubby gave them all that swag and gave rebellious Iranians no support when they wanted to overthrow their tyranny early in the Obamanation.
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