Anyway. My opinion? 50/50 chance either way. Hard to tell at this point.
Posted on 07/18/2019 5:00:18 PM PDT by nwrep
Rachel Bitecofer, the assistant director of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Virginia’s Christopher Newport University, created a unique prediction model that almost perfectly foretold in July 2018 the results of the 2018 midterm election. (The model concluded the Democrats would pick up 42 House seats; the Dems gained 40 seats.)
Bitecofer’s model has concluded that it matters not who the Democratic presidential nominee is -- “unless it ends up being a disruptor like Bernie Sanders.” Whoever wins the Democratic nomination -- other than possibly Bernie, that is -- will defeat Trump in the general election.
The only unexpected factors that might make Bitecofer revisit her Trump-loses prediction: the launch of a well-funded independent campaign by someone like Howard Schultz, the sudden onset of an economic recession, a war with Iran or a large-scale terrorist attack. “Otherwise,” she says, “the country’s hyper-partisan and polarized environment has largely set the conditions of the 2020 election in stone.”
“The complacent electorate of 2016, who were convinced Trump would never be president,” she writes, “has been replaced with the terrified electorate of 2020, who are convinced he’s the Terminator and can’t be stopped. Under my model, that distinction is not only important, it is everything.”
Won’t the Democrats sort of need a candidate first?
She also predicted Trump would lose to Hillary in 2016-a detailed left out of the article.
Midterm elections are a whole different dynamic. The president was not on the ballot.
Anderson was a third-party candidate in 1980, Carter’s re-elect. Carter won in 1976 because Ford had pardoned Nixon the previous year.
“the House shift was subpar.”
Lol. the biggest GOP loss in 44 years was subpar indeed.
I agree that a Pro-Trump turnout that overwhelms DNC fraud is vital to success. This is speculation, but I suspect Trump saw something in the past 9 months that will lead to full burying of the hatchet with Bannon. As you’ve said, Steve is a thinker and not a doer. They will need detailed logistics to defend against fraud but Trump needs Steve’s instincts to help direct where that logistical support should be placed.
They were only part of the problem.
There were numerous seats that had shady outcomes.
I find it odd that you wholeheartedly support this poll.
Some obnoxious puke of a loser will tell you they didn’t
post it just for you and you don’t have to read it
Anyway. My opinion? 50/50 chance either way. Hard to tell at this point.
Our side is way too confident. Trump has done nothing that I’m aware of to stem voter fraud. The rats could very easily vote theft/moter voter/immigration/ballot harvest fraud their way to victory in 2020. It could actually be a wipeout going the wrong way for us.
The rats pulled off vote fraud right in our face in 2018 and laughed at us, while accusing us of being the cheaters with muh russia. The one Republican that tried ballot harvesting (North Carolina?) and won, actually ended up getting taken to court and forced to abdicate.
What's their campaign slogan?
"Biden/Sanders 2020 - One Of Us Is Might Live Until 2024"
Around the bend. :)
>> Lol. the biggest GOP loss in 44 years was subpar indeed.
2018: Democrats gained 41 House seats midway through Trump’s first term.
2010: Republicans gained 63 House seats midway through Obama’s first term.
Funny, eh?
Rachel Biteburger
What else has this chick got right ?
Just a thought...
Did the 40 retire because they feared the hoax was real, or because they knew the hoax was coming?
I think he was talking about GOP Presidents - Reagan, GW, GHW, all lost fewer seats in their first terms...
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