Posted on 07/18/2019 5:00:18 PM PDT by nwrep
Rachel Bitecofer, the assistant director of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Virginia’s Christopher Newport University, created a unique prediction model that almost perfectly foretold in July 2018 the results of the 2018 midterm election. (The model concluded the Democrats would pick up 42 House seats; the Dems gained 40 seats.)
Bitecofer’s model has concluded that it matters not who the Democratic presidential nominee is -- “unless it ends up being a disruptor like Bernie Sanders.” Whoever wins the Democratic nomination -- other than possibly Bernie, that is -- will defeat Trump in the general election.
The only unexpected factors that might make Bitecofer revisit her Trump-loses prediction: the launch of a well-funded independent campaign by someone like Howard Schultz, the sudden onset of an economic recession, a war with Iran or a large-scale terrorist attack. “Otherwise,” she says, “the country’s hyper-partisan and polarized environment has largely set the conditions of the 2020 election in stone.”
“The complacent electorate of 2016, who were convinced Trump would never be president,” she writes, “has been replaced with the terrified electorate of 2020, who are convinced he’s the Terminator and can’t be stopped. Under my model, that distinction is not only important, it is everything.”
No, the smart decision is to ignore it as nonsense.
Oh, you have us shaking!!!!
Only because the leftists will execute voter fraud to excessive levels.
JoMa
Yeah, they think they have cheating down to an exact science...
Over confidence did Mrs. Bill Clinton in, in 2016.
The Rats won’t make that mistake again, they are so full of hatred that voter fraud will be astronomical this time around.
Over confidence will do Trump in if it is not checked.
I can easily believe this prediction.
No, the smart decision is to ignore it as nonsense. Did she predict the GOP would pick up 2 Senate seats? Picking the GOP the lose the House was simply an historical guess.
What did Clinton in was the fact she was too lazy, Trump isn’t lazy, he will campaign hard. Stop wringing your hands.
Or it could have been a guess that matched reality by chance.
What does she mean by this statement
“unless it ends up being a disruptor like Bernie Sanders.”
In 2016 she incorrectly predicted Hillary would win:
https://womenalsoknowstuff.com/profile/rachel-bitecofer
Watch the video labeled:
(2016) WAVY 10
Exclusive: CNU’s Dr. Rachel Bitecofer talks election results
Ignore all polls, whether it predicts good or bad, just be sure to vote and make sure all your friends and relatives will also vote and vote the right way.
...created a unique prediction model...
Unique, is that like far-fetched?
Oregonian ahead of the curve and off the cliff
Oregonian ahead of the curve and off the cliff
There is always the issue of voter fraud. The Democrats will pull out every trick in the book. Trump will have to win states by a margin over over 200,000 or more because the Democrats will manufacture ballots to win a close race. They nearly stole the Florida governor and senate race last year.
And I think you also underestimate how stupid voters are. Many people will want those handouts the Democrats are offering.
When she waives the wand, she won’t be using it anymore.
All the voter reg data shows is a slight but steady improvement in GOP over Dem registrations in several key states.
By itself it isn’t enough to overcome indies, so I always assume a 50/50 split of them.
But it also assunes the GOP turns out & votes R, something they didn’t do in AZ.
Complacency gets a bad rap, but most of the time it turns out how people think.
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