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Trump will lose 2020 per unique prediction model that nailed 2018 midterm results
Oregonian ^ | July 18, 2019 | Douglas Perry

Posted on 07/18/2019 5:00:18 PM PDT by nwrep

Rachel Bitecofer, the assistant director of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Virginia’s Christopher Newport University, created a unique prediction model that almost perfectly foretold in July 2018 the results of the 2018 midterm election. (The model concluded the Democrats would pick up 42 House seats; the Dems gained 40 seats.)

Bitecofer’s model has concluded that it matters not who the Democratic presidential nominee is -- “unless it ends up being a disruptor like Bernie Sanders.” Whoever wins the Democratic nomination -- other than possibly Bernie, that is -- will defeat Trump in the general election.

The only unexpected factors that might make Bitecofer revisit her Trump-loses prediction: the launch of a well-funded independent campaign by someone like Howard Schultz, the sudden onset of an economic recession, a war with Iran or a large-scale terrorist attack. “Otherwise,” she says, “the country’s hyper-partisan and polarized environment has largely set the conditions of the 2020 election in stone.”

“The complacent electorate of 2016, who were convinced Trump would never be president,” she writes, “has been replaced with the terrified electorate of 2020, who are convinced he’s the Terminator and can’t be stopped. Under my model, that distinction is not only important, it is everything.”


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2020; electionfraud; fakenews; fakepolls; liberalagenda; notfrontpagenews; tds; trump2020; voterfraud
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To: Okeydoker

No, the smart decision is to ignore it as nonsense.


101 posted on 07/18/2019 6:03:42 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration
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To: Okeydoker

Oh, you have us shaking!!!!


102 posted on 07/18/2019 6:05:27 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration
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To: nwrep

Only because the leftists will execute voter fraud to excessive levels.

JoMa


103 posted on 07/18/2019 6:05:55 PM PDT by joma89
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To: nwrep

Yeah, they think they have cheating down to an exact science...


104 posted on 07/18/2019 6:06:03 PM PDT by madison10
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To: nwrep

Over confidence did Mrs. Bill Clinton in, in 2016.
The Rats won’t make that mistake again, they are so full of hatred that voter fraud will be astronomical this time around.

Over confidence will do Trump in if it is not checked.

I can easily believe this prediction.


105 posted on 07/18/2019 6:07:19 PM PDT by CapnJack
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To: napscoordinator
It hasn't been devastating, the House under Ryan wasn't doing anything anyway. And most Presidents lose the House in the midterms. Without the cheating, we actually would have held it and without the 35 Rino’s quitting. Trump added two Senate seats and we held on to crucial governorships.
106 posted on 07/18/2019 6:08:45 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration
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To: fortheDeclaration

No, the smart decision is to ignore it as nonsense. Did she predict the GOP would pick up 2 Senate seats? Picking the GOP the lose the House was simply an historical guess.


107 posted on 07/18/2019 6:09:52 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration
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To: CapnJack

What did Clinton in was the fact she was too lazy, Trump isn’t lazy, he will campaign hard. Stop wringing your hands.


108 posted on 07/18/2019 6:11:00 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration
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To: Okeydoker
Not sure i would arrogantly dismiss the predictions of someone who ended up being 100% correct.

Or it could have been a guess that matched reality by chance.

109 posted on 07/18/2019 6:11:28 PM PDT by Stentor
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To: plain talk

What does she mean by this statement

“unless it ends up being a disruptor like Bernie Sanders.”


110 posted on 07/18/2019 6:14:26 PM PDT by funfan
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To: The Pack Knight
Nate Silver was their hero for correctly predicting the 2012 election, but you barely hear about him after his failure in 2016

Yup. And John Zogby hit the trifecta once and has had no repeats, consigning him to the second tier of pollsters.
111 posted on 07/18/2019 6:14:26 PM PDT by Dr. Sivana ("...a choice between Woke-fevered Democrats and Koch-funded Republicans is insufficient."-Mark Steyn)
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To: nwrep

In 2016 she incorrectly predicted Hillary would win:

https://womenalsoknowstuff.com/profile/rachel-bitecofer

Watch the video labeled:

(2016) WAVY 10
Exclusive: CNU’s Dr. Rachel Bitecofer talks election results


112 posted on 07/18/2019 6:16:33 PM PDT by cba123 ( Toi la nguoi My. Toi bay gio o Viet Nam.)
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To: nwrep

Ignore all polls, whether it predicts good or bad, just be sure to vote and make sure all your friends and relatives will also vote and vote the right way.


113 posted on 07/18/2019 6:24:10 PM PDT by Innovative
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To: nwrep

...created a unique prediction model...

Unique, is that like far-fetched?


114 posted on 07/18/2019 6:27:17 PM PDT by McGruff (If you hate our Country, or if you are not happy here, you can leave!)
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To: TigersEye

Oregonian ahead of the curve and off the cliff


115 posted on 07/18/2019 6:32:51 PM PDT by ronnie raygun (nicdip.com)
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To: TigersEye

Oregonian ahead of the curve and off the cliff


116 posted on 07/18/2019 6:32:51 PM PDT by ronnie raygun (nicdip.com)
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To: warsaw44

There is always the issue of voter fraud. The Democrats will pull out every trick in the book. Trump will have to win states by a margin over over 200,000 or more because the Democrats will manufacture ballots to win a close race. They nearly stole the Florida governor and senate race last year.

And I think you also underestimate how stupid voters are. Many people will want those handouts the Democrats are offering.


117 posted on 07/18/2019 6:34:11 PM PDT by david1292
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To: kingu

When she waives the wand, she won’t be using it anymore.


118 posted on 07/18/2019 6:38:01 PM PDT by Lisbon1940 (No full-term Governors (at the time of election))
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To: DoodleBob

All the voter reg data shows is a slight but steady improvement in GOP over Dem registrations in several key states.

By itself it isn’t enough to overcome indies, so I always assume a 50/50 split of them.

But it also assunes the GOP turns out & votes R, something they didn’t do in AZ.


119 posted on 07/18/2019 6:39:22 PM PDT by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually" (Hendrix))
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To: Innovative

Complacency gets a bad rap, but most of the time it turns out how people think.


120 posted on 07/18/2019 6:46:05 PM PDT by Lisbon1940 (No full-term Governors (at the time of election))
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