Don't believe this TRUMP hater! Just go check out her Twitter feed!!!
Posted on 07/01/2019 8:29:04 PM PDT by lasereye
A university election model that predicted the blue wave in the House in 2018 almost to the seat is predicting a big loss by President Trump next year due to an explosion of bitter partisanship and Trump hate.
An election forecast model designed by Rachel Bitecofer, assistant director of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University, predicted that Trump will lose the Electoral College 297-197, with 270 of 538 needed to win.
Three key states that helped push Trump over Hillary Rodham Clinton in 2016, despite her winning the popular vote, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, will turn back to the Democrats, she said.
“Trump’s 2016 path to the White House was the political equivalent of getting dealt a Royal Flush in poker,” said Bitecofer. “It’s probably not replicable in 2020 with an agitated Democratic electorate.”
That partisanship, added to the spark in anti-Trump protests by liberals and even left-leaning independents, is likely to overwhelm the increase in GOP voters, she said.
“The country’s hyperpartisan and polarized environment has largely set the conditions of the 2020 election in stone,” Bitecofer said in a release. “The complacent electorate of 2016, who were convinced Trump would never be president, has been replaced with the terrified electorate of 2020. Under my model, that distinction is not only important, it is everything,” she added.
Her model in 2018 predicted a 42 seat House Democratic pickup, and the Democrats won 40. Most models did not predict such a big victory.
“...election model that predicted the blue wave in the House in 2018 almost to the seat is predicting a big loss by President Trump next year...”
election model that predicted Hillary Clinton would win easily in 2016 is predicting a big loss by President Trump next year
Who is that one professor that predicted Trump victory in 2016 and got the EV with a few points??
If not for fraud, the Dems would not have gained so many seats. Election fraud needs to be stopped. If DJT is not elected in 2020, it will be due to even more fraud.
“predicting a big loss by President Trump”
Is that why he draws HUGE crowds and at the teeny tiny Biden and Beto rallies people are looking at their cell phones....
Now those who are promising to pay off college loans... I had $7K in college loans and today that would be equal to $50K. I do hope they will pay me back for my college loans, at today’s value! LOL
Adjusted for inflation, $7,000.00 in 1969 is equal to $49,538.90 in 2019...
We made about $1K a month, lived in an apartment for $125 a month, drove a 1967 VW Beetle, rented furniture... Saved up and two years later we bought a house and a new car while still repaying my loans.
Today’s youngsters are shocked that they must repay their loans, and they can’t buy a house or a car... Well we did it all at the same time. Buckled our belts, lived on a budget, and paid our bills and my loans. I don’t think today’s snowflakes are interested in doing that!
They want it ALL and they want it NOW!
One of the demoncrat candidates promises to get rid of daylight saving time. I want DST ALL year not just in summer. I LOVE it. My body stays on it all year. I wouldn’t vote for him.
They are all pro abort, I won’t vote for them.
They want to give free medical care for life to illegals... Until recently 5 of our kids didn’t have health insurance. They couldn’t afford $2K a month premiums, through their employer. And they always had had insurance before ObamaCare... I won’t vote for any of the demoncrap candidates.
And a lot of the crazies out there, the loud ones, putting Trump down, they don’t even vote.
If Democrats have a big night, look for the partisan breakdown in the exit polling. It will reveal a significant surge in the Democratic share of the electorate.
If the Democrats underperform expectations it will almost certainly be because the partisan surge didn’t manifest. Under that scenario, Democrats may still have enough juice to flip the 23 seats they need for a majority, but the large wave will not happen.
If the Democrats struggle to win their House majority, this will also mean a much tougher night in the Senate elections.
Right now, the consensus is that Republicans may gain 1 or 2 Senate seats and if Democrats surge enough to pick up 40 or more seats, they may actually take control of the Senate too. Stay tuned!
She was wrong about the Senate, because the House "surge" was a combination of cheating and RINO NeverTrump retirements.
The Republicans gained two solid seats, and had Arizona and Montana stolen out from under them.
Her model doesn't account for Democrat vote fraud shenanigans.
https://forward.com/fast-forward/425167/president-trump-2020-election-prediction/
I pray he’s right.
I think they’re laying the groundwork for massive election fraud.
What a vast bowl of piss.
It's plausible but WHY are they terrified of Trump? Are they terrified of a good economy? No new wars? More jobs? Low inflation? If they are terrified, it's because THEY HAVE TOLD FED THEMSELVES LIES.
There's no REASON, as of today, that Trump should not be reelected POTUS.
Mitt Romney got more votes in Wisconsin than Trump got, but Romney lost the state by 7% to Obama.
If the Democrats turn out in 2020 like they recently turned out in 2018, Trump and the GOP are in deep trouble.
stop spreading misinformation. 31 Republican incumbents were defeated in 2018. Even if no Republicans retired, we would have lost the House.
This is not a threat just an observation but if the left wins and a large amount of Americans doubt the election results, people will begin using extra-democratic methods of redress.
The radical Left has been contesting the election results of 2016 and using extra-democratic methods of redress, see Antifa.
Don't believe this TRUMP hater! Just go check out her Twitter feed!!!
If democrats win in 2020, it will be from massive, outright election fraud like we’ve never seen before.
I agree.
I'll hang my ass out a little here, and tell you, President Trump will carry Michigan in 2020, regardless of what happens to the undercard. The radicalization of the Demagogic Party has had a striking effect on most of the lifelong Demwits I know (which is most people I know, even here in western Michigan). Watch the (fake) news coverage for Michigan turnout and such be broadcast from a live street feed in Dearborn (that's a side prediction, not really important).
The Democrats don't need to cheat.
They have enough LEGAL voters to win any national election they want to.
In 2020, one third of ELIGIBLE voters will be non-white.
They consistently vote 75%-80% Democrat.
If the Democrats get 40% of the white vote, the election will be a toss up.
If the Democrats get more than 40% of the white vote, Trump will lose.
I guess the 40+ house republican retirements in 2018 had nothing to do with the democrats win?
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