Posted on 07/01/2019 8:29:04 PM PDT by lasereye
A university election model that predicted the blue wave in the House in 2018 almost to the seat is predicting a big loss by President Trump next year due to an explosion of bitter partisanship and Trump hate.
An election forecast model designed by Rachel Bitecofer, assistant director of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University, predicted that Trump will lose the Electoral College 297-197, with 270 of 538 needed to win.
Three key states that helped push Trump over Hillary Rodham Clinton in 2016, despite her winning the popular vote, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, will turn back to the Democrats, she said.
“Trump’s 2016 path to the White House was the political equivalent of getting dealt a Royal Flush in poker,” said Bitecofer. “It’s probably not replicable in 2020 with an agitated Democratic electorate.”
That partisanship, added to the spark in anti-Trump protests by liberals and even left-leaning independents, is likely to overwhelm the increase in GOP voters, she said.
“The country’s hyperpartisan and polarized environment has largely set the conditions of the 2020 election in stone,” Bitecofer said in a release. “The complacent electorate of 2016, who were convinced Trump would never be president, has been replaced with the terrified electorate of 2020. Under my model, that distinction is not only important, it is everything,” she added.
Her model in 2018 predicted a 42 seat House Democratic pickup, and the Democrats won 40. Most models did not predict such a big victory.
Fair-weather RINOs. A sad, miserable sort of Swamp Creature.
The ONLY reason Trump won was Hillary was a God awful candidate that kept the dem base at home in those key states. I have said over and over again: they will not make that mistake again. They will ensure they have a candidate that gets Philly/Miami/Detroit and Madison out to vote. Couple what with what I expect the international bankers to do to the global economy (crash it) and this will be an uphill battle.
Yup, it’s plausible. There has never been as much negative coverage for any president. But you have to admit is also plausible that he could win again and by more in 2020. The economy didn’t take a dump like EVERY critic warned would invariably happen.
Freegards
This is not statistics it’s some computer model. What gets input to this model is the liberal fear level if I’m understanding it correctly. How that’s determined I have no idea.
They have to go with a minority candidate to turn out the minority voters that didn’t turn out for Clinton. It’s hard to imagine the blue collar dems who switched for Trump going dem again after how liberal all the candidates went.
Freegards
Can’t make such a prediction without a named Dem candidate.
And the GOP isn’t going to do a thing to stop them. Why? Because they are just as crooked and the second they try to stop the Dems and their crooked stuff the Dems will stop the crooked crap the GOPE is involved in. It’s all a game. Read my tag line
65 million people voted for Hillary Clinton, arguably the least qualified person to be nominated for the presidency. 65 million! Anything is popular. A precious few states hold the key.
I’ve read enough of her theory to summarize it: Her model is based on the amount of negative energy - anger, fear, buyers remorse, etc in the opposition party rather than on the traditional notion of pulling independents over from one side to the other. And her accuracy in 2018 was based on taking into account how motivated the Democrats were, because negative emotions like hate are stronger motivators than positive ones like contentment. There’s truth in that.
On the other hand she predicted the House race where IIRC 55 Republican representatives also retired or quit. Stevie Wonder could read those tea leaves...
I’ve looked for her prediction about the 2018 Senate race but did not find one. She doesn’t have a long track record.
Food for thought. Ask yourself “why were WE so jacked-up when Trump became the nominee?” - the apply that same question to the Democrats for 2020.
Exactly. Dems will NEVER run a straight old white man again. Never. Honestly I expect Michelle O to jump into the race to save the day from this horror show called the dem primary.
Only we know how to do sedition better.
If this country elects one of those filthy leftists over Trump next year then its ensuing downfall will be richly deserved.
The rug was pulled in 2008 and McCain did the bravest thing any politician ever did: he suspended his campaign to go back to DC to vote ‘yes’ to spending more money. Because, as we well know, politicians are notoriously frugal penny-pinchers when it comes to spending The People’s money.
:-| ... :-[ ... |-D
Did I miss the part where Democrats were calm and rational about Trump in 2016?
And Kerry, a traitor and leftist idiot, came way too close.
I think she would argue that she can, because whoever the nominee is is secondary to the fact that he/she is not Trump.
The traditional wisdom is that if people aren’t excited by the nominee they are likely to just stay home and not vote. But if there is this pent-up pressure to vote for “anybody other than Trump”, maybe that’s no longer true.
The ONLY reason Trump won was Hillary was a God awful candidate that kept the dem base at home in those key states.
And the only chance that Trump has to win in 2020 is if the Dems run another God awful candidate.
Which they seem bound and determined to do.
.... Never underestimate the Strength and Cunning of your Enemy ....
The gop gave us nothing to vote for in 2018
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