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CBO: Our Long-Term Projections Show ‘Unprecedented’ Levels Of Debt
Hotair ^
| 06/26/2019
| John Sexton
Posted on 06/26/2019 7:27:28 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Debt was a much bigger topic of conversation during the Obama administration. Republicans mostly arguing it was reaching a critical level and progressives mostly suggested we shouldn’t worry too much about it (We can always mint that $1 trillion coin). Today the CBO released new long-term projections of federal debt which suggest it will nearly double as a percentage of GDP by 2049:
In our extended baseline projections, budget deficits drive federal debt held by the public to unprecedented levels. Debt rises from 78 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2019, which is already high by historical standards, to 144 percent by 2049. Our projections of debt, which are slightly lower than last years, incorporate our central estimates of various factors, such as productivity growth and interest rates on federal debt.
There are several big caveats, the first of which is that these long-term projections are highly sensitive to assumptions about growth and interest rates:
For example, if the growth of total factor productivity in the nonfarm business sector was one-half of one percentage point higher each year than we project, all else being equal, debt in 2049 would equal 106 percent of GDP; if such growth was one-half of one percentage point lower, debt that year would equal 185 percent of GDP. If interest rates were one percentage point lower each year than we project, debt in 2049 would equal 107 percent of GDP; if they were one percentage point higher, debt that year would equal 199 percent of GDP.
But the current estimates also assume that Congress won’t make changes to current law that make things substantially worse:
If, instead of maintaining current law, lawmakers enacted legislation to maintain certain major policies now in placemost significantly, if they prevented a cut in discretionary spending in 2020 and an increase in individual income taxes in 2026then debt held by the public would increase even more, reaching 219 percent of GDP by 2049.
If any of the really bad scenarios happen then the cost of servicing federal debt will soon eclipse the discretionary portion of the budget:
We project that net outlays for interest would more than triple in relation to the size of the economy over the next three decades, exceeding all discretionary spending by 2046.
All of this seems like a long way off because it is, but even the best case scenarios here aren’t very good. Also not mentioned in any of these projections is what will likely happen if Democrats take over the White House and Senate again at some point in the next decade. One of the big drivers of our future debt is entitlement programs. What happens when Democrats achieve enough power to put single payer in place i.e. an additional $30+ trillion over ten years. The current projections will look modest by comparison to what Presidents Sanders or Warren might institute.
All the excerpts above come from the summary. The full report including some nice graphs (like the one above) can be found here.
TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: cbo; debt; deficit; spending
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To: SeekAndFind
You’ll be drawn and quartered if you suggest reforming entitlement spending on this website.
2
posted on
06/26/2019 7:29:33 AM PDT
by
babble-on
To: SeekAndFind
Every stinkin’ year the National Debt increases, and by definition that is “unprecedented levels” of debt.
3
posted on
06/26/2019 7:30:44 AM PDT
by
Yo-Yo
( is the /sarc tag really necessary?)
To: SeekAndFind
Don’t worry , if the Dems get control of everything the country called The Unites States will disappear
To: SeekAndFind
I’d be concerned except for the fact that the CBO predictions are found to be wrong pretty much every time, and no one is ever held accountable for being that wrong so often.
5
posted on
06/26/2019 7:31:53 AM PDT
by
thoughtomator
(The Clinton Coup attempt was a worse attack on the USA than was 9/11)
To: babble-on
We have to do something eventually about entitlements. No disagreement from me on that point.
Is the devil in the details? Nobody seems to agree on what exactly should be done to rein in Social Security and Medicare, for example.
To: babble-on
There shouldn’t even be entitlement spending. Not at the Federal level. Federal agencies and departments dedicated to wealth redistribution, education, environmentalism, labor, etc. are extra-Constitutional at best. And arguably un-Constitutional.
7
posted on
06/26/2019 7:36:31 AM PDT
by
BenLurkin
(The above is not a statement of fact. It is either opinion or satire. Or both.)
To: SeekAndFind
Well, if the Left is worried about the debt, they can move to end deficit spending right now. They control the purse strings. They remind Trump of that daily.
From what I hear Medicare is taking a massive hit next year.
Thank heaven Welfare is still too important to touch. /s
I guess the illegals are more important than all the old-timers who worked their 40-50 years to earn the right to collect.
Such is life in the good old USofA these days...
8
posted on
06/26/2019 7:37:22 AM PDT
by
DoughtyOne
(This space for rent...)
To: SeekAndFind
Debt was a much bigger topic of conversation during the Obama administration. Republicans mostly arguing it was reaching a critical level and progressives mostly suggested we shouldnt worry too much about it... Republicans only worry about the deficit when a Democrat is in the White House. Democrats only worry about the deficit when a Republican is in the White House.
To: babble-on
“Youll be drawn and quartered if you suggest reforming entitlement spending on this website.”
Probably a lot of people here are already relying on Social Security and Medicare. Leave those alone for people currently or soon to be using them , and I’ll be fine.
10
posted on
06/26/2019 7:42:27 AM PDT
by
be-baw
To: babble-on
Entitlement reform:
Eliminate tax money for illegals and for Muslim terrorist families, or at least cap their payments to maybe $50,000./s
Old article on Boston Marathon bombers who cause dead children and amputated limbs of Americans.————
“The extended family of the accused Boston Marathon bombers received more than $100,000 in public assistance through a variety of government programs, the Boston Herald reported.
The taxpayer-funded support for Dzhokhar and Tamerlan Tsarnaev and their relatives came in the form of food stamps, Section 8 housing vouchers and stipends ending in 2012, the report said.
Dzhokhar, 19 is charged with conspiring to use a weapon of mass destruction for his alleged role in the blasts that killed three and wounded more than 260 at the Marathon on April 15. Tamerlan, 26, died days later in a confrontation with police in nearby Watertown.”
11
posted on
06/26/2019 7:42:50 AM PDT
by
frank ballenger
(End vote fraud,non-citizen voting & leftist media news censorship or we are finished.)
To: frank ballenger
12
posted on
06/26/2019 7:44:38 AM PDT
by
BenLurkin
(The above is not a statement of fact. It is either opinion or satire. Or both.)
To: DoughtyOne
RE: From what I hear Medicare is taking a massive hit next year.
Wait till you have MEDICARE FOR ALL !!
13
posted on
06/26/2019 7:48:53 AM PDT
by
SeekAndFind
(look at Michigan, it will)
To: BenLurkin
14
posted on
06/26/2019 7:49:11 AM PDT
by
polymuser
(It's discouraging to think how many people are shocked by honesty and how few by deceit. Noel Coward)
To: be-baw
Unwinding a Ponzi scheme without breaking too many lives can be a real trick.
15
posted on
06/26/2019 7:51:25 AM PDT
by
Hieronymus
("I shall drink--to the Pope, if you please,-still, to Conscience first, and to the Pope afterwards.")
To: SeekAndFind
You want to fix SS? Reduce Medicare / Medicaid payments.
If the mortality rate increases for those over 65, less needs to be paid out in benefits. Cold, harsh, yes but that is true.
16
posted on
06/26/2019 7:52:44 AM PDT
by
taxcontrol
(Stupid should hurt - dad's wisdom)
To: SeekAndFind
When young people learn that interest rates can rise, they will revolt against the baby boomers. It will be brutal.
17
posted on
06/26/2019 7:53:06 AM PDT
by
Oldeconomybuyer
(The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.)
To: babble-on
“Youll be drawn and quartered if you suggest reforming entitlement spending on this website.”
You can recommend it. It’s recommendable. But it is NEVER going to happen. EVER. Our entire system of government, the nation itself, will collapse into ruin before any politician EVER EVENT ATTEMPTS to solve the issue. It cannot be done.
If the millions upon millions of young, working age, immigrants and refugees coming here could actually get jobs instead of adding to the entitlement burden, that might slow down the collapse of the Ponzi scheme to some degree. But they can’t and/or won’t. They are political fodder in truth, nothing more. And anyway, the rate of taxation they’d have to pay would make them little more than slave labor anyway.
It’s not going to be solved. Politicians can’t do it, because to do it they would have to self-sacrificing martyrs - as opposed to embezzling racketeers. And politicians will ALWAYS be embezzling racketeers. Eventually, when the conflagration and end comes for the country, we will default on it all in a mele of fire and blood that ends the government. Until then, the party will go on.
The monarchists, back at the founding of the country, always thought that this kind of thing would occur rather quickly in this form of government - that the people would demand a raiding of the national treasury for their many wants, needs and desires and that the country would soon collapse from exactly this kind of institutionalized mass pandering - extortion in truth - by the political class. Well, it lasted for a long while because for most of our country’s existence, the moral fortitude was at least strong enough to prevent the worst of human nature.
No longer. The free for all is now. To the strongest go the (borrowed) reparations. Until it all comes down in a brutal crash. And that’s the next event on the horizon, however long it takes for other forces now at work to tear the entire structure apart.
18
posted on
06/26/2019 7:55:30 AM PDT
by
Scott from the Left Coast
(You may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you...)
To: SeekAndFind
Maybe that’s how they plan to pay for it. They’ll just cut us to the bone and give it to everyone else. White privilege and all...
19
posted on
06/26/2019 8:19:57 AM PDT
by
DoughtyOne
(This space for rent...)
To: babble-on
Time to take real steps toward shortening lifespans, then.
20
posted on
06/26/2019 8:36:02 AM PDT
by
gundog
( Hail to the Chief, bitches!)
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