Posted on 06/05/2019 3:43:58 PM PDT by SMGFan
The general thinking about the Republican Senate majority is that it has solidified to the point where Democrats are effectively shut out of gaining control of the upper chamber in 2020. But in truth, the GOP majority is in more danger than many analysts believe. Just how much jeopardy depends on how you think about the overall state of the race: If the election is going to be close, as many analysts (including myself) seem to believe, then the Senate probably leans Republican at best. And if President Trump is likely to lose, perhaps badly (as other analysts suggest), then Republicans will have a very difficult time maintaining control of the chamber.
To evaluate this claim, we’ll revisit a simulation created during the 2014 elections. It employs three simple factors: the president’s imputed job approval in a state on Election Day (estimated from the national job approval rating found in the RealClearPolitics Poll Average and the state’s partisan lean), whether an incumbent is running, and whether a candidate is “highly problematic” (think Sharron Angle or Roy Moore).
The benefit of this approach is straightforward. If a party has a bunch of candidates who are, say, between 51% and 55% favorites to win, a simple look at the predictions would suggest no losses. But in reality, some of those candidates should lose in the aggregate, even if we don’t know which ones. You can calculate the likelihood of various outcomes by hand, but doing so gets tedious, especially for a large field. A simulation allows us to work around that.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
and ends with
“As you can see, 42% job approval is basically the break point for the GOP holding the Senate. At the same time, if Trump were to get his job approval up to around 49 percent, the GOP could hold all of its seats.
Of course, it is still very early, and we don’t have a clear idea where Trump’s job approval will be on Election Day. But if you think he is in serious jeopardy of losing, then the Republican majority is anything but a given.”
All they have to do is get on board the Trump train.
Will take them to the election party.
The GOP is deader than a doornail and if they are not replaced they will be crushed in 2020.
Alabama is one that should be a slam dunk, unless Roy Moore is nominated again.
Colorado will be gone; Cory Gardner may as well polish his resume.
If it wasn’t for the fact that the senate controls the SCOTUS and Federal Judgeships I could care less if the rinos running prevail or not. Since impeachment hinges on a senate vote I suppose that the Donald will work hard to get some of the ingrates reelected. So many of them have nuts the size of raisins they don’t deserve any support.
Democrats are never imperiled. 1980. 1984. 1994. 2010. 2014, All the news stories talked about toss up races and how everything was cool. And don’t forget the Hillary landslide which was a done deal. It’s the legitimacy of the vote count that matters.
Pardon me for stating on 05JUN19 that I have as good of a chance of winning the WH in 2020 as ANY of the LEFTIST DIMocRATS do. - I’m NOT running for any office, btw.
2020 will be a BLOODBATH for the leftist DIMs, as the DIMs have NOBODY who can do as well as Mike Dukakis did in 1988.
(Btw, my smarter liberal friends from the local colleges are “dispirited” as they are smart enough that the election of 2020 is LOST already.)
Yours, TMN78247
They had complete control of all congress and with Trump, could have done substantive legislation.
They didn’t... and still do not.
They are in peril because they are spineless.
If there are any legs to the Schweitzer Chao-Chicom military story, Cocaine Mitch will be forced to quit soon.
Romney, Murkowski and Collins don’t count. So that changes the honest balance already.
That post is a lie.
Is it a purposeful lie or are just ignorant?
The Republicans never had 60 votes in the Senate.
The House killed Obamacare 47 times but it would not pass the senate
Good article, thanks for posting.
Mcsally in AZ is very worrisome, as is Gardner in CO apparently. Merely holding onto the Senate isn’t enough unless you want to give scum like Romney and Murkowski the final vote on matters such as judges.
Obviously polls mean NOTHING at this point, but even more so here, as the elephant in the living room is the Barr/Durham investigation.
If that investigation puts away people [yes, I know, IF], AND if the Democrats aren’t able to spin it away, then it’s basically lights-out for the Dems in 2020.
Time will tell, but so far, Barr certainly sounds like he means business.
so the basis is if Trump wins re-election the GOP holds the Senate...if he loses re-election they likely lose the senate..
anyone with 2 working brain cells understands this...
I stopped right there. Even the Dems are conceding he'll be re-elected unless he's impeach or has a major scandal before 2020.
The election close? I want the meds he’s on
IF they don’t start SUPPIRTING Trump and start BUILDING the DAMB WALL, we will NOT VOTE for them!
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