Posted on 02/13/2019 1:21:37 PM PST by Red Badger
A growing number of Californians are contemplating moving the state due to the sky-high cost of living, with sentiment highest among millennials, according to a new study.
Fifty-three percent say they are considering fleeing, representing a jump over the 49 percent a year ago.
The poll conducted by Edelman Intelligence found the chief reason for dissatisfaction isn't wildfires or earthquakes but housing cost and availability.
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LOS ANGELES — A growing number of Californians are contemplating moving from the state — and not due to wildfires or earthquakes but the sky-high cost of living, according to a survey released Wednesday.
The online survey, conducted last month by Edelman Intelligence, found that 53 percent of Californians surveyed are considering fleeing, representing a jump over the 49 percent polled a year ago. The desire to exit the nation's most populous state was highest among millennials, the survey noted.
"California is a great, great place if you're young and ambitious and daddy's paying the rent," said Joel Kotkin, a presidential fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University in Orange, California. "It's similar to New York with the same dynamic, and maybe more of it."
Kotkin, who has researched California demographic and economic trends for decades, said he's astounded when he asks his Chapman students whether they think they'll be in the state in 10 years. "I would say the majority would say 'no,' — and many grew up in California," he said.
"There's no doubt that California's economy, for all of its strengths when it comes to innovation and creating these industries that people want to be part of, is struggling with high costs," said Aaron Terrazas, a senior economist with online real estate site Zillow. "Costs have gotten way ahead of incomes in California, and that's making a lot of people think about whether it's worth the hurdles."
According to Edelman, 63 percent of millennials in the 2019 survey indicated they were considering a move from sunny California. The chief reason for dissatisfaction: housing.
In fact, 60 percent of millennials surveyed cited housing cost and availability when asked in general what reasons would make them leave California. That was slightly higher than the general population (55 percent), although sentiment among renters topped the survey with 65 percent citing housing factors as a reason to leave.
Californians believe housing costs are four times more threatening to the state's economy than high health costs. Residents also consider crime and security as a top-three concern.
Terrazas said millennials in California who are "tired of renting and looking to settle down and buy a home are finding it's often out of reach for them." He said this is especially the case in coastal job centers of the state, whether Los Angeles County or the San Francisco Bay Area.
"California just doesn't strike them as reasonable," the economist said. "The state has consistently seen much faster home value appreciation than most of the country, and the same goes for rent until about two years ago. Rents have begun to slow down, ... although they remain at high levels."
Terrazas said Southern California has high housing costs and on average lower incomes than Northern California. "In some ways, Southern California is in much dire straits," he said.
Even with higher average incomes in Silicon Valley, though, he said homebuyers now must spent about half of their pretax incomes on a monthly mortgage for a median home. The median home in the Silicon Valley market topped $1.2 million at the end of 2018, according to Zillow data.
Statewide, the median home value in California was $547,400 at the end of 2018, while the U.S. median home value was $223,900. By comparison, the median home value in New York state stood at $289,000 and $681,500 in New York City; New Jersey was $324,700.
The Edelman survey found 47 percent of Californians are considering moving out of the state in the next five years. Again, it found the rates among millennials were higher with 55 percent of them contemplating the move. And 57 percent of Californians with kids under 18 also were considering packing up and leaving in the next five years.
Chapman's Kotkin believes the next wave of discontent in California won't necessarily be focused on housing costs but taxes.
"Taxes are a real killer if you're upper middle class and whether you're a younger person trying to buy a house or you just want to be able to spend what you make," said Kotkin. "There's also concern among people looking to retire and having their income taxed into oblivion."
At 12.3 percent, California led the 50 states in 2018 with the highest top marginal tax rate, according to the Federation of Tax Administrators. And that doesn't include an additional 1-percent surcharge for those Californians with incomes of $1 million or more.
"The tax bill made it worse," Kotkin said, pointing out that the federal tax changes means deductions for state, local and property taxes now get capped at $10,000. "State taxes have become a significant factor now. We're getting into a situation where the middle class in California really can't hack it."
Overall, the Edelman survey involved a total of 1,900 California residents and was conducted Jan. 4 to Jan. 20. It said results were weighted to the Census to be representative of the state's adult population.
A report from California's Legislative Analyst's Office last year indicated Texas, Arizona, Oregon and Nevada are popular destinations for relocating Californians. It also found families with kids and those Californians with only a high school education were most likely to flee to lower cost states than college educated residents.
Finally, the survey found more than 60 percent of residents feel that the best days of living in California are behind instead of ahead. And a large number of residents are "ambivalent" toward tech as an engine of prosperity, the survey said.
Been in California 30 years next month, retired and headed back to Texas in Sept after one more summer.
“OH GOD they’re coming to Texas along with their political views!!!! We are so screwed!”
It’s not helping overall. I’m one of them, but other than objecting to toll roads, you’ll never see me go after a conservative (including Trump, especially Trump!) on this forum. Well, I have to admit, I did beat on Cruz a bit for his antics at the Republican Convention, but then just about everyone here agreed.
But I do hear what you’re saying. I remember one transplant from CA that I know, who moved to Texas, said he was conservative and just loved NEWT, back in 1995. But then he said that Newt was too ‘confrontational’ and should ‘work with (Bill) Clinton’. Brainwashing works.
That’s the problem - they agree with us...sometimes, but they really don’t know why, because their parents don’t know why, so they’re confused and once someone peels away the top layer, they’re are just floundering.
And here, in America, given leftist control of media, people on our side need to FULLY UNDERSTAND why they support us, rather than simply support us until a leftist comes by and says something like “well, while you may say you love Trump, but did you know that Trump got a J-Walking ticket in 1985, and therefore needs too be impeached”...and then our transplant responds: “well, that makes sense, time for Trump to go”.
It’s certainly not easy for us!
They better stop voting democrat if they leave..
Democrats/libs trash a state then move on to another one and continue to trash that one too.
Dear Californians<:
Texas is full. Please move to New York.
I have a story about a friend who lives in AZ who's hubby put on a pair of pants one morning..with a scorpion inside them. I'll leave it up to the California Liberal’s imagination of what happened next to the poor guy should they move there.
Good tip is to always shake out your clothes out before putting them on. And check the sheets at night as well...
“Texas is full. Please move to New York.”
East coast is where the locust came from in the first place. Flew in during the 70s and 80s. Made this place a SH.
Beato the Irish beano almost beat Cruz, you should be worried.
Heck, we should all be worried.
Gee, a majority believe all this stuff and the Democrats gained even more power in CA last November?
Who woulda thunk it?
I can understand that, I don't like them either. But would conservatives feel welcome? My son said the Spectrum tech in Reno shut him down when he found out he was from L.A. Totally blew him off and barely said two words to him after that.
On top of that he said he was told to get his car plates taken care of ASAP or risk the consequences.
I do dream about moving but on the other hand I don't want my neighbors to hate my guts either.
“OH GOD they’re coming to Texas along with their political views!!!! We are so screwed!”
Republicans control both the state legislature and the governorship in Texas and have for some time, yet Texans like you are running around with your hair on fire, screeching that Texas is doomed. Do you get some kind of visceral, negative gloom and doom rush from screaming like a little girl?
Just great, moron liberal morons screwing up all the other States. I’m tired of the Kali idiots in Colorado. Bunch of retarded metrosexuals.
The first section of wall that the President has built should be around the state of CA... The survival of the rest of the Nation could depend on it..
Too late. They are here.
Exactly! Those morons should be treated the same way they treated the Okies in the depression, like a form of fungus! That’s been the plan all along. Infect the red states with assh0les that ruined the blue states!
For anyone who is ready to bolt Calif who has horses:
I have a 5.58 acre horse property for sale 35 miles east of Carson City, Nevada.
3 br 2 ba 24 x 24 garage well septic fenced/cross fenced 12 separate horse enclosures. Paddocks & steel pens.
Property taxes UNDER $725 annually currently. Property insurance currently $887. Power bills UNDER $100 a month. House built in Dec 2004/Jan 2005. Paved road. 1 mile to US Hwy. 22 miles to I-80.
4 seasons, but not a horrible winter. Rain all day today. 60 miles to S Lake Tahoe. 60 miles to center of Reno.
Anyone who is interested, contact me. I will answer all questions.
stand and FIGHT> STOP voting for these idiots who are bleeding you then you jump ship and ruin other states with your stupid voting.
Don’t come to Arizona. We already have too many damn commie leftist transplants.
Oklahoma hasn’t changed and is still just the same as John Steinbeck wrote about in the “ Grapes of Wrath”. There are no dentist in the state. The only people that move here and fit in are our cousins from Arkansas. We are backwards, clannish, and hostile to outsiders.
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