Posted on 01/04/2019 6:03:16 AM PST by ScottinVA
Job creation ended 2018 on a powerful note, with nonfarm payrolls surging by 312,000 in December though the unemployment rate rose to 3.9 percent.
The jobless rate, which was last higher in June, rose for the right reason as 419,000 new workers entered the workforce and the labor force participation rate increased to 63.1 percent. The participation level was up 0.2 percentage points from November and 0.4 percentage points compared with a year earlier.
A broader measure of unemployment that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons held steady at 7.6 percent.
In addition to the big job gains, wages jumped 3.2 percent from a year ago and 0.4 percent over the previous month. The year-over-year increase is tied with October for the best since April 2009. The average work week rose 0.1 hour to 34.5 hours.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting job growth of just 176,000, though they projected the unemployment rate to fall to 3.6 percent. The wage number also was well above expectations of 3 percent on the year and 0.3 percent from November.
The report, released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, comes amid concern over whether the U.S. economy is part of a global deceleration, despite turning in its best year since the Great Recession.
Data released this week showed a key manufacturing mark hitting a two-year low and mortgage volume at its lowest in 18 years.
The jobs market, however, remains hot.
Payrolls growth totaled 2.6 million in 2018, the highest since 2015 and well above the 2.2 million in 2017.
Health care led the way in new jobs, adding 50,000 for the month thanks to 38,000 new positions in ambulatory services and 7,000 more in hospitals. The industry saw a boom of 346,000 for the year, compared with a 284,000 gain the year before.
Restaurants and bars added 41,000 to the close the year with a 235,000 gain, down from 261,000 in 2017.
Construction also was one of the big gainers despite a slumping housing market. The industry added 38,000 jobs in December, bringing the annual total to 280,000, a 12 percent gain from 2017's 250,000.
Manufacturing also tuned in a solid 32,000 gain for the month, with the bulk of the growth coming from the 19,000 positions added in the key durable goods sector. The sector also saw a surge in 2018, with the 284,000 new positions representing a 37 percent rise from the previous year.
Another closely watched sector, retail, posted growth of 24,000 thanks to a holiday season boost. For the year, retail added 92,000, reversing the loss of 29,000 in 2017.
Government jobs saw a gain of 11,000.
Previous months also saw positive revisions, adding to the upbeat tone for the year. November saw its disappointing 155,000 original report revised up to 176,000, while October's count went from 274,000 to 237,000, for a net gain of 58,000 from the previous tallies.
Those revisions brought the three-month average up to a strong 254,000.
The report comes at a time of heightened market concerns over the Federal Reserve's future path. The U.S. central bank raised interest rates four times in 2018 in an effort to prevent the economy from overheating, but President Donald Trump has criticized the Fed for endangering the economic recovery.
Futures traders expect the Fed to hold steady through the year, and in fact are pricing in a 45 percent of a rate cut by the end of 2019.
>>>I am NOT a stock market expert, but it seems (as Tim Anderson on Twitter argues) there is a major disconnect between the “economy” and the stock market.
An important thing to keep in mind is that about 45% of revenue for S&P 500 companies comes from foreign sales. When we had synchronized global growth from 2017 into 1H18, that spurred the growth in the index. Now we have slowing in some global markets and the indices reflect that. Obviously, the consumer economy is doing well.
Most US recessions are triggered by excesses in the housing market. In this recovery, residential investment remains well below historic trends, so it is unlikely to drive a recession. I anticipate any recession will be more corporate focused and fairly shallow. Some corners of the corporate market are overleveraged and will come under pressure with slower US growth combined with slow global growth.
Yes on short term, there is a disconnect between the economy and stock market. Longer term, I have no doubt, we will continue to see positive stock market trends. I clearly remember “black friday, 1987) when the stock market was around 700. This very strong job Market will be positive for stocks longer term.
Yes, the Fed (swamp) kept Obama’s economy slowly afloat with zero interest rates. A lot of the recent turmoil is Fed created. Also, Dems taking the house, and fear of Trump’s agenda being slowed down by the Dems. Trump, like Regan, has proved with the right tax, energy, and regulatory policy, the economy will thrive. Trump is playing the long game. The dems are pretty sad.
Remember during the 0bama Reign of Eerror we would have to add, ‘Unexpected!’ *DRINK* ?
Now it should be, ‘Expected! Cheers!’ MAGA! :)
Interesting how you put that question. One cannot go on “disability” without an administrative judge approving. I hear tales of people who supposedly get SSD while being healthy enough to run marathons but I never meet those people. In this area you meet a lot of those who look like the walking dead but cannot get Social Security Disability benefits even though they have worked and paid into the system for decades. My wife went twelve years with no earnings and no health insurance after working ten years with doctors telling her she should be on disability. Finally, after going through every possible step of appeals she was approved and only got five years backpay out of the twelve. At one stage she had to pay two hundred dollars out of her own pocket to go to the next appeal level. It ain’t the rose garden some people think it is.
Having said that let me add that I think the whole social security system is unconstitutional and is a net negative, we would have been better off without it.
ping!
CHEERS!
The FED didn’t screw up anything. They did exactly what they had announced WELL in advance that they were going to do. People overreact to nearly everything and since people make the decisions that send the market where it ultimately goes, the market overreacts to everything. The market got TOO bullish because the people trading it got too bullish. The temptation to squeeze shorts was just too good to pass up once the market became overextended. The market had to pay the price for its excess. Then, like a bunch of crying babies, the participants started whining for the FED to extend it an olive branch. The FED’s mandate is NOT to support the stock market. The FED did what it had announced it would do. A few years ago, the market started whining about FED surprises. The FED responded with a greater amount of transparency and started telegraphing its moves. The funny part of all this is the notion that higher interest rates are destined to kill the market. Historically, we are not even close to prohibitively high interest rates. And the market has a history of RISING (regardless of exceptions) with rising interest rates because the demand for money increases as the economy strengthens. The players got spoiled by rates at of near ZERO for so long they forgot what normal rates even look like. Once a lot of states and local governments start going belly up because the historically low interest rates killed their pension assumptions, you will figure out one of the reasons why the FED did this.
I am 74 and feel as if I live on a different planet than I was born on even though I can drive from here to the place of my birth in an hour. When I was a child whole families survived for a year on what it takes to rent a SMALL house for one MONTH now. A neighbor rented out a farmhouse for a whole year for $120 in ‘52 and that is not even a decent eight hours pay now in this area and you couldn’t make it on that much per hour in some places. If social security had been adjusted according to REAL inflation figures the average recipient would be getting at least two or three times what they get now and the system would be belly up. What used to be an unimaginable income is now poverty. A person can go through what used to be the price of two dozen new houses to pay for college, come out with a degree and not be able to pass my eighth grade finals.
I don’t understand. Why doesn’t CNN just lie about job growth? Why do they selectively and inconsistently say something that’s true?
Temporary holiday jobs?
DEC JOBS: +312K
RECORD 156,945,000 WORKING
HISPANIC UNEMPLOYMENT LOWEST EVER
https://www.drudgereport.com/
lol there is no slowdown.. thus why the fed raised rates!
:: The FED didn’t screw up anything. ::
I reject your assertion that I said or implied such.
The monster created by A. Johnson has become a neo-Communist institution.
I appreciate your comments.
I think what we are seeing in the stock market is an adjustment to real value in tech stocks. What are Apple, Facebook, Snapchat, Google, etc. really worth?
People have jobs. People are spending money. They are more comfortable in their future.
However, the new normal for housing has changed. In many places in the country housing is not affordable for young people. Plus so many come out of college with debt higher than my first mortgage. Young people are choosing to have less children or none at all. The baby boomers are moving into smaller houses or assisted living centers.
Some states like ID, UT, AZ, SC and TX continue to benefit from the demographic shift and the flight from high tax, high costs states to live like IL, NY, CT, CA, NJ.
Almost everyone moving to Idaho is coming from California and Washington. This is the same thing that happened here in NH from 1985-2018. It change us from a Red to purple/blue state.
Everything is made in China. I just bought a Milwaukee 1/2 cordless Hammer drill at Home Depot. Made in China. I got home from the grocery store and noticed when putting the fresh peeled garlic that it was a product of China. I wanted to throw it in the trash. Mrs. Woodbutcher would not let me.
However, China’s economy is slowing down. So, are ALL the other countries who are major oil exporters. Therefore, they all want to sell more of their products here because the US economy is better than anywhere else in the world. I see it in the lumber industry. There is so much European lumber coming here now because they can get more for it here than China, Europe, Japan or the Middle East. Same thing with Brazilian plywood and lumber from Chile and New Zealand. Everyone wants to sell their product here.
Now Powell is speaking on stage taking victory laps - watch him spook today’s rally in the market.
No, this isn’t a phony baloney Obummer job surge filled with temp jobs and government positions. There was growth in healthcare, manufacturing, construction with wages growing 3.2% year over year. This was substantive through and through.
This FED is the best I have seen since Volcker was the chair.
...
Volcker is a Hillary and Obama loving Democrat. He’s adored for causing a really bad recession in the early 1980’s and idiots give him credit for Reagan’s economy.
Job growth surges by 312,000 Obama&Co beat dogs with stick.
Even with the 2008 drop, which really were about constructed loan packages, which no one in the banking industry could really explain on profitability or risk...we are in a new era where old definitions no longer fit.
...
The mortgage scandal was destructive to the economy, but the Federal reserve made it much worse. The Fed and Obama are the mainly why we have trillions of dollars of debt.
Here is a great bunch of data. You can look at each and every STATE to see how they’re doing, Economically. (List of states to the left of page.)
Sadly, with our new Socialist Governor rReplacing Scott Walker) our numbers ARE going to take a hit as he tries to implement his Socialist agenda.
https://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.wi.htm
Anyhow, check it out. Very helpful to see how things are ON THE GROUND wherever you happen to be standing. :)
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