Posted on 11/05/2018 7:19:35 AM PST by bitt
This is my final column before the midterm election. So, this former Vegas oddsmaker turned national political commentator has a few predictions and common sense observations to make.
Back in 2016 I predicted a Trump victory when (** almost) no one else did. Every poll showed Trump would lose by a wide margin. Nate Silver of the NY Times predicted Hillary’s chances of winning at 92%. These pollsters make their living by polling actual human beings. I don’t. So how did I know?
Simple. First, size matters. You could see it in the rallies. Trump would attract eight hour lines and 10,000 or more attendees at wild, intense rallies all over America. I should know. I was opening speaker for six Trump campaign events here in Las Vegas.
(Excerpt) Read more at thegatewaypundit.com ...
Good article.
The poll companies will have to recognize that calling people on the phone in this day and age does not afford an accurate index of what people think. People no longer believe it is safe to talk to strangers on the phone about issues, what with Antifa, doxing, scams, Facebook and Twitter harassment, etc.
#RedStorm
Democrats will be in shock and mourning. The pollsters got it all wrong again.
*****
And Wednesday morning will be the busiest day for psychiatrists and psychologists in the history of America."
_______________
LOL
It certainly isn’t scientific, of course, but one barometer I use is the comments section on websites, or YouTube. Leading up to November, 2016, the comments, even on the MSNBC sites were overwhelmingly positive for DJT and negative to HRC. Such is the case today, for the midterms. I see very little excitement or even good things people are saying about liberal candidates.
It would be an interesting study to see how many bets are right vs polls. Even picking the World series or Superbowl sets the odds for Vegas betting. They aren't in business to lose money. If Vegas said the odds were 80%, that's 4 to 1 odds. If they were wrong most bookies would be broke from one election. They may set the odds at 2 to 1 or even 3 to 1 to keep their losses manageable in case of an upset.
Such modesty!
This Wayne Allyn Root even ran for Vice President on the Libertarian line a few years ago.
Maybe even better known for being in Barak Obama's supposed Columbia U. graduating class in the same major and stating that he never knew Obama there at all.
Root is generally accurate. Pretty good in terms of credibility. The one iffy factor in his analysis is the question of what percentage of Trump people will transfer their allegiance to Trump to relatively unknown GOP House candidates.
Just curious. What are their odds currently?
The key question is the pro-Trump coattail effect. Will the Trump enthusiasm transfer enough to put enough relatively unknown GOP House candidates over the top in their districts? There are a lot of Republican House retirements, so a lot of new GOP faces running.
The Senate, though, seems pretty much a lock for the GOP, with a likelihood of gains.
And let's hope that Radical 'Rats running for governor of their respective states are convincingly beaten.
Just look at the rally turnouts and their enthusiasm and patriotism. I’ve watched ALL of the rallies and they’re HUGE. Proof of the American people’s support for this President who was sent to us by God to save this nation.
Hope so.
But the Dems are good at generating bogus voters.
Trust The Boss and Trust the American people to video and report voter fraud for prosecution.
This time i will. Trump is not Romney or McCain.
I know what you mean
Found out my Mom and Dad are voting straight Democrat this election.
Something they never would have done when they were alive.
Yep.
Barbra Streisand better double the pancake recipe........
http://redstatewatcher.com/article.asp?id=141412
President Trump on Monday warned anyone who commit “ILLEGAL VOTING” will be subject to “Maximum Criminal Penalties.”
“Law Enforcement has been strongly notified to watch closely for any ILLEGAL VOTING which may take place in Tuesday’s Election (or Early Voting),” President Trump warned with a tweet.
GOOD
>> And Wednesday morning will be the busiest day for psychiatrists and psychologists in the history of America. <<
That's what she said:)
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