Posted on 11/04/2018 8:06:57 AM PST by mandaladon
FiveThirtyEight's election forecaster Nate Silver said Sunday that the House could end up in Democrat or Republican hands in Tuesday's election, though polling predicts that Democrats will flip the chamber.
"So in the House we have Democrats with about a 4 in 5 chance of winning," Silver told ABC's "This Week."
However, he noted that "polls aren't always right."
"The range of outcomes in the House is really wide," he explained. "Our range which covers 80 percent of outcomes goes from, on the low end, about 15 Democratic pickups, all the way to low to mid 50s, 52 or 53."
"Most of those are under 23, which is how many seats they would need to win to take the House," he said."
"But no one should be surprised if they only win 19 seats and no one should be surprised if they win 51 seats," Silver added. "Those are both extremely possible, based on how accurate polls are in the real world."
However, most also predicted that President Trump would lose in the 2016 elections to Hillary Clinton. The morning of election day two years ago, FiveThirtyEight gave Clinton a 71 percent chance of becoming president.
(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...
figures
“Most of those are under 23, which is how many seats they would need to win to take the House,” he said.”
I read that to say most of his outcomes are for less than a 23 seat pick-up, so why is he pushing the 80% number...:^)
The backpeddling is at full force. On Fox Frank Luntz who is usually out in la la land, just admitted that every poll is wrong and is not true. WOW. Sonething is red is happening. Keep voting. The one fact they can not change is that if we all vote like we did in 2018 trump wins again.
When you flip a coin, it may land on heads and it may land on tails. And you should not be surprised with either scenario.
#Analysis
2016 i meant
Either the Dems will take the House or they won’t. That does just about cover it. Thank God for modern data analytics!
More in depth analysis:
“Well they might re-take the House or maybe not.”
Nate Silver is a douche and should be reminded of this every day after Nov. 6th.
“both are EXTREMELY possible” ... “85% chance”
Cognitive dissonance much of late ... Nate?
Just like a condom, Nate is effective 100%...80% of the time.
DK
Silver has been doing a lot of this lately, and he’s telling the truth.
What he is saying is that polling is useful for seeing trends, not outcomes. He’s admitting polls aren’t accurate in single instances. He’s also been saying that people don’t understand polling and margins of error, which is also true.
Sampling is also harder these days. This isn’t your father’s polling universe.
That which predicts everything predicts nothing......
He just in CYA mode since getting burned in 2016. He realizes that if the polling companies muff this one like they did in 2016, nobody is ever going to put any stock in either him or the polls ever again.
“When you flip a coin, it may land on heads and it may land on tails. And you should not be surprised with either scenario.
#Analysis”
NOW THAT’S FUNNY...
and sums up wonderboy Nate perfectly.
He predicts “maybe?”
Bottom line
BURY THE DEMONCATS
A “could go either way” from this goof 48 hours out means he thinks the GOP will also hold the House. Being a professional propagandist he tries to find a way of hinting that without saying it.
I'm betting my life savings on it......That's the most brilliant prediction I have ever heard.
Apparently, he feels strongly, both ways!
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