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We're In the Correction Phase of Bull Market With Room to Run
Real Clear Markets ^ | 10/26/2018 | Byron Wien

Posted on 10/26/2018 7:55:29 AM PDT by Obadiah

Taking all of these factors into account, I believe we are going through a necessary correction prior to the next upleg, which should occur after the mid-term election, regardless as to whether the Democrats take control of the House of Representatives or not. Earnings will continue to drive the market and the prospects for earnings growth in the U.S. for 2019 remain strong in spite of what is happening elsewhere in the world.

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearmarkets.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy
KEYWORDS: economy; stockmarket
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This is an excellent analysis of the economy and the market.
1 posted on 10/26/2018 7:55:29 AM PDT by Obadiah
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To: Obadiah

Fully agree with the assessment.


2 posted on 10/26/2018 7:56:19 AM PDT by MGunny
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To: Obadiah
Does this mean I'll get back the YTD 10% loss I've experienced? That is, within the next year or so? That would be a nice change from my own experience.

I ask because over 25 years my investments have tended to lose in a year what it took 3 or 4 to gain.

3 posted on 10/26/2018 8:07:28 AM PDT by Joe Brower ("Might we not live in a nobler dream than this?" -- John Ruskin)
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To: Obadiah
We're In the Correction Phase of Bull Market With Room to Run

OR

Is it possible that Deep State Multi Billionaires are manipulating the markets ahead of the Midterms?

4 posted on 10/26/2018 8:09:20 AM PDT by The Sons of Liberty ('DEPLORABLE' Charter Member of The Vast Right Wing Conspiracy - and DAMN Proud of it!.)
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To: Obadiah

“Earnings will continue to drive the market”

Past, present and future it is always about earnings.


5 posted on 10/26/2018 8:26:26 AM PDT by billyboy15 (Es)
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To: The Sons of Liberty

I think that is a distinct possibility based on a couple of factors.

First, we know the Deep State is real and are playing for keeps. They can move with international support to move the market.

Second, there is a lot of day trading now that is based upon algorithms. I would suspect that it would be very easy to tweak these for subtle but deliberate reasons (see point #1).

However, the bottom line seems to remain and it is totally what I have been basing my portfolio on since early January 2018. Once we get through the mid-term election I believe the market will begin to rise. How quick or how fast will be interesting to see, but I think the market goes a pretty good way up after the election. The only caveat being is if Democrats take the House and resume their crazy talk.


6 posted on 10/26/2018 8:26:35 AM PDT by Obadiah
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To: Obadiah

waiting for Krugman’s “See, I told ya so”...


7 posted on 10/26/2018 9:17:33 AM PDT by stylin19a ( Best.Election.Of.All.Times.Ever.In.The.History.Of.Ever)
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To: Joe Brower
...I ask because over 25 years my investments have tended to lose in a year what it took 3 or 4 to gain...

Have you ever though that you might be in the wrong investments?

I say this because mine tend to rise more quickly and come back faster than you indicate.

8 posted on 10/26/2018 10:03:33 AM PDT by CurlyDave
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To: CurlyDave
"Have you ever though that you might be in the wrong investments? "

Thanks for the reply. Yes, many times. I am no financial guru, and most of the time I have entrusted my savings to "professional investors". This is the end result.

I guess it doesn't surprise me that things go down five times faster than they go up. But after about five or six cycles of that, it's gotten old.

Question would be, what are the "right" investments? Seems like I ask ten different people and will get ten different answers.

9 posted on 10/26/2018 10:21:05 AM PDT by Joe Brower ("Might we not live in a nobler dream than this?" -- John Ruskin)
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To: Joe Brower

And the market wonks will try to tell youit goes up as fast as it goes down. We both know this is horsespit. You can see it in the charts.


10 posted on 10/26/2018 10:45:50 AM PDT by Sequoyah101 (It feels like we have exchanged our dreams for survival. We just have a few days that don't suck.)
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To: Obadiah

Gauging the number of comments here and the other thread and the news, most could not care less about this correction or whatever it is. Of course, what can one do anyway?

As mom used to say, “Tie a knot in the end of the rope and hang on.”


11 posted on 10/26/2018 10:50:54 AM PDT by Sequoyah101 (It feels like we have exchanged our dreams for survival. We just have a few days that don't suck.)
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To: The Sons of Liberty

I do believe that the deep state multi billionaire democrats are manipulating the market. Next week, the news will be that it is all Trump’s fault.

Two weeks later look for the rebound.


12 posted on 10/26/2018 10:53:28 AM PDT by Texas resident (Democrats=Enemy of People of The United States of America)
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To: Joe Brower
...Question would be, what are the "right" investments? Seems like I ask ten different people and will get ten different answers...

I am a strong believer in low-cost index funds. These days there are exchange-traded funds which act just like stocks, but are really low cost index funds.

A lot of people do pretty well just buying and holding SPY, which is a S&P 500 fund.

If you are more venturesome, QQQ is the NASDAQ 100 fund, which is a lot more volatile than the S&P 500. More gains in good years, more losses in bad, but over the past decade, certainly more gains.

Put half your money in each one and pretend you are Rip van Winkle.

Send the "professionals'" kids to community college and retire like a prince.

13 posted on 10/26/2018 3:20:32 PM PDT by CurlyDave
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To: CurlyDave

Good advice.


14 posted on 10/26/2018 7:15:26 PM PDT by Sequoyah101 (It feels like we have exchanged our dreams for survival. We just have a few days that don't suck.)
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To: Obadiah

bbb


15 posted on 10/27/2018 9:29:58 AM PDT by thinden
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To: CurlyDave
Thanks for the good advice. I wonder how well this strategy will play out for me at age 57... a big chunk of all that 'time' the gurus talk about being such an advantage is lost at this point.

All I know is after a quarter of a century, I would have done almost as well just stuffing it in a pillowcase. Which is still an option, I suppose!

16 posted on 10/27/2018 10:23:08 AM PDT by Joe Brower ("Might we not live in a nobler dream than this?" -- John Ruskin)
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To: Joe Brower

Just look at what those recommended index funds have done over the years. It seems the objective of “managed” money managers is to feed off of your labor and savings “managing” any gain from your pockets to theirs. That also includes fund managers feeding at the trough.

You can’t get much more diverse than an index fund and that does not include the dow, too narrow.

Going forward is the only real factor. Avoid paralysis if what you are doing is underperforming and something else has a better track record. You probably don’t have the experience, temperment, time or resources of market intel to be a trader. I surely don’t


17 posted on 10/27/2018 10:38:52 AM PDT by Sequoyah101 (It feels like we have exchanged our dreams for survival. We just have a few days that don't suck.)
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To: Joe Brower
...I wonder how well this strategy will play out for me at age 57...

I can guarantee that if you keep doing the same as you have been the results will be the same as they have been.

18 posted on 10/27/2018 10:41:47 AM PDT by CurlyDave
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To: CurlyDave

^^ TRUTH ^^


19 posted on 10/27/2018 10:42:22 AM PDT by Joe Brower ("Might we not live in a nobler dream than this?" -- John Ruskin)
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To: Sequoyah101
...It seems the objective of “managed” money managers is to feed off of your labor and savings “managing” any gain from your pockets to theirs. That also includes fund managers feeding at the trough...

I have seen studies that show about half of all the gains from investing end up in the pockets of the "professional" money managers.

Managers hate guys like me who have learned to do it themselves and keep all of their gains. Even worse, I am teaching my kids to do this also -- and anyone else willing to listen.

20 posted on 10/27/2018 10:49:55 AM PDT by CurlyDave
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