Posted on 10/23/2018 8:51:36 AM PDT by SmokingJoe
Most of us understood, I think, that the Democrats’ attempt to bring down Brett Kavanaugh with a pathetically thin allegation of sexual misconduct as a teenager would energize the Republican base just in time for the 2018 elections. But apparently the “Kavanaugh effect” extends further than that.
A new poll by NBC News/Wall Street Journal finds that likely voters in the most hotly contested House races favor Kavanaugh’s confirmation by a significant margin. To be specific, in districts rated as “toss up” or “leans” by the Cook Political Report, voters favor Kavanaugh’s confirmation 43 percent to 33 percent.
How does that compare to likely voters nationwide? The same poll found that these voters also favor Kavanaugh’s confirmation, but only by a 40-36 margin.
NBC/WSJ apparently didn’t poll states with key Senate races, even though it’s the Senate, not the House, that votes on the confirmation of judges. We can surmise, however, that the pro-Kavanaugh effect will be more pronounced in “toss up” and “leans” Senate races than in such House contests. The key battleground Senate races are in Red States (e.g., Missouri, West Virginia, Indiana, Montana, and Tennessee) and states that are neither Red nor Blue (e.g., Florida and Nevada). Key House races are more evenly distributed across the partisan spectrum.
I don’t know how many voters, at the end of the day, will mark their ballot, or decide whether to vote at all, based on the Democrats’ execrable treatment of Justice Kavanaugh. But it seems clear that, among those who do, the Kavanaugh effect will work to the advantage of the GOP this year.
Mexican Caravan will also help the GOP.
The Left has played this round badly.
Now all I need is Dick Morris to say the same thing and I can rest easy.
The Kavanaugh fiasco didn’t just energize the GOP base... which was apathetic... but more importantly it engaged and enraged the Middle... the Dems are toast... period
https://politicalopticsblog.wordpress.com/2018/10/16/the-blue-wave-try-a-decency-tsunami/
I am sure this will be on every news channel tonight.
They have a bad hand, and they’re bluffing. What else can they do? Extol the virtues of Medicare-for-All, Globull Warming, Open Borders? That’ll sell in the blue districts to some extent, where there are vulnerable republicans. But is it enough for Nanzi to be able to raise the gavel and flash that botox smile? We won’t know until election night, which I hope is a YouTube worthy, Carville putting a waste bucket over his head, Martha Radditz crying kind of night. We’ll see.
If the caravan breaks thru, The Pubbies will be hurt also!
They’re gonna go down gambl’n because they are still pitching to the campus morons who are the minority OF a minority in the US.
They only LOOK numerous because of our corrupt MSM... it’s the same con the Liberals lost with when Hillary got them believing their own hype against Trump in the last national go around
Liberals are banking on a crowd of grifters who, thanks to the Trump economy, enjoy less and less favor with American voters
This year’s October Surprise: Democrats are surprised that thuggish behavior, guilty until proven innocent, and a “believe women” standard of proof all offend normal Americans. Surprise! Who would have guessed that this would fail after polling so well in San Francisco and among elected democrats?
Warning: Sarcasm Detected
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Even the 40/36 overall is a winning margin. It will beat some Democrats who aren’t even on the radar now.
The combination of the southern border invasion and #walkaway’s big Washington rally this weekend will be a one two knock out punch.
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