Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Top Gallup editor: Faulty polling led to inaccurate 2016 data models
The Hill ^ | September 10, 2018

Posted on 09/10/2018 2:04:57 PM PDT by SMGFan

Frank Newport, editor-in-chief at the Gallup Poll, on Monday said that data analyst websites, not national polls, were the ones incorrect in their 2016 presidential election predictions.

“The national polling was actually one of the more accurate years where they correctly predicted the popular vote,” Newport said to Hill.TV's Joe Concha, referring to national polls.

“But one of the things that happened was an overreliance on these models where various individuals and various companies put together these scientific-sounding probabilistic models,” he continued.

(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2016election; 2016polls; blamegame; dnctalkingpoint; dnctalkingpoints; election2016; franknewport; galluppoll; joeconcha; mediawingofthednc; partisanmediashills; presstitutes; smearmachine; thehill
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-45 next last
To: SMGFan

Correct. It was not faulty polling. It was pure dishonesty, far and wide. They thought that if we were told often enough that Hillary would be POTUS, it would come true due to Trump voters staying home.


21 posted on 09/10/2018 2:43:07 PM PDT by NEMDF
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SMGFan
“In Minnesota for example, the most recent poll before the election was eleven days old ... and those state polls are very tricky anyhow because it's a smaller sample, and small differences in turnout between big cities and rural areas could make a big difference," Newport said. "Those models sounded scientific, but they were relying on inferior polling at the state level in these difficult to poll states that are toss-up states.”

So the pollsters know Minnesota is a difficult state to poll AND the polls were days old AND the polls were inferior.

They allegedly knew this and still reported the polls presuming they were accurate?

This article is a big CYA.

22 posted on 09/10/2018 2:43:30 PM PDT by yesthatjallen
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: apillar

Tell them you are a trans gender with recurring herpes that supports Trump.


23 posted on 09/10/2018 2:44:03 PM PDT by Col Frank Slade
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: SMGFan
But will we change our methodology ?

Hell No !

24 posted on 09/10/2018 2:48:02 PM PDT by tomkat
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SMGFan

Mistakes were made... corrections have been made... honest mistakes...yada yada yada...coincidinks... move along...


25 posted on 09/10/2018 2:50:31 PM PDT by Professional
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SMGFan
The guys who did the best just called one thousand people per state.

That is the best way to get an honest outcome.

No data models, no special sauce, no leading questions.

Just one thousand people, chosen at random across the state are you a registered voter and who are you voting for.

26 posted on 09/10/2018 2:51:22 PM PDT by Harmless Teddy Bear (Somewhere there's danger, somewhere there's injustice, and somewhere else the tea is getting cold.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SMGFan

No shit


27 posted on 09/10/2018 2:56:19 PM PDT by Lee25
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: yesthatjallen

no obligations to note their lack of confidence when releasing polls? /s


28 posted on 09/10/2018 2:59:21 PM PDT by SMGFan ( .)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 22 | View Replies]

To: 9YearLurker

How about going out and talking to people. What miss. DC cocktail party? No way!!!!


29 posted on 09/10/2018 3:08:42 PM PDT by Kozy (new age haruspex; "Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: Freee-dame

national polls were not accurate either they had whats-her-face winning by ten points.

California is the only reason she had more popular vote anyway.


30 posted on 09/10/2018 3:12:06 PM PDT by snarkytart
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: snarkytart
.
>> “California Massive Vote Fraud is the only reason she had more popular vote anyway.
31 posted on 09/10/2018 3:14:14 PM PDT by editor-surveyor (Freepers: Not as smart as I'd hoped they'd be)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 30 | View Replies]

To: SMGFan
It defies logic and understanding.

They knew the polls were worthless but still reported them (presumably as accurate).

If true, people should have been fired for this.

32 posted on 09/10/2018 3:19:10 PM PDT by yesthatjallen
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 28 | View Replies]

To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; Bockscar; cardinal4; ColdOne; Convert from ECUSA; ...
With spin like that, who needs an amusement park?

33 posted on 09/10/2018 3:32:50 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (www.tapatalk.com/groups/godsgravesglyphs/, forum.darwincentral.org, www.gopbriefingroom.com)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: Political Junkie Too

Lol! These clowns always have an excuse to cover up that they were ones “ colluding” to fix an election.


34 posted on 09/10/2018 3:38:21 PM PDT by MGunny
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: PGR88

Beat me to it! I even change my voice to a more “urban” accent!!!


35 posted on 09/10/2018 3:48:49 PM PDT by Maskot (soPut every dem/lib in prison...like yesterday!!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: SMGFan

“Faulty polling led to inaccurate 2016 data models”

that’s good to know ... i’d hate to think that non-faulty polling could lead to inaccurate 2016 data models ...


36 posted on 09/10/2018 3:49:46 PM PDT by catnipman ((Cat Nipman: Vote Republican in 2012 and only be called racist one more time!))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SMGFan

Inaccurate due to flat out lying, he means.

Psycho-social manipulation via pseudo-demographics.

Lie hard and steady enough, and the public will fall into line.

There was no accident in what was done.


37 posted on 09/10/2018 3:59:57 PM PDT by Grimmy (equivocation is but the first step along the road to capitulation)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SMGFan

As has already been pointed out on this thread, using nationwide polling data that only predicts the nationwide popular vote is useless as the outcome of a Presidential election depends on the results of the Electoral College selection. But, the media, the politicians, and most Democrat voters were convinced by this wrong headed approach that Hillary would win. They were wrong.

The blue wave predictions have been based on these same sort of polls. As local and state wide polls are starting to show up, these raw results are being influenced by the earlier blue wave polls. This is circular logic, but it makes the media orgasmic. The coup d’état crowd must be really excited.


38 posted on 09/10/2018 4:00:16 PM PDT by centurion316 (Back from exile from 4/2016 until 4/2018.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Freee-dame

Amen. They have to get the states right to matter.


39 posted on 09/10/2018 4:27:34 PM PDT by chb
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: SMGFan
“The national polling was actually one of the more accurate years where they correctly predicted the popular vote,”

How were they able to determine the illegal vote in advance?
40 posted on 09/10/2018 4:35:10 PM PDT by clearcarbon
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-45 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson