Posted on 09/09/2018 8:01:18 AM PDT by NautiNurse
September 10 is the statistical peak of the Atlantic Tropical Storm season, and the conga line of storms dancing across the Atlantic is not disappointing historical data. The Governors of NC and SC have declared states of emergency for a potential major hurricane landfall, while Hurricane Florence is slowly creeping westward. Florence is predicted to increase forward motion and intensity Monday. Hurricanes Hazel (1954) and Hugo (1989) are two notorious major hurricanes to make landfall in NC and SC, respectively. North Carolina has prior experience with "F" named hurricanes. Hurricanes Fran (1996) and Floyd (1999) caused widespread flooding and damage in the Tar Heel state.
The NHC has been issuing Public Advisories for Florence since August 30. The five day "Cone of Uncertainty" archive progression since Aug. 30 may be found here.
Isaac is a small storm. Isaac is predicted to steadily strengthen during the next few days as the storm remains over warm waters and in a low wind shear environment in the short term. The NHC predicts Isaac will reach hurricane status within 2 days.
Helene is expected to reach hurricane status in the short term. However, Helene is not anticipated to threaten U.S. interests. The forecast track turns north into the mid-Atlantic.
Click on the images below to enlarge
No or little room in the inn around Upstate South Carolina and Asheville NC because of a equestrian event in Tryon. Bad construction delays on I-85 at Greenville, SC. For evacuees from the beaches when they arrive in Columbia SC, I-20 to Georgia may be a better bet than I-26 to the hills and mountains.
No or little room in the inn around Upstate South Carolina and Asheville NC because of a equestrian event in Tryon. Bad construction delays on I-85 at Greenville, SC. For evacuees from the beaches when they arrive in Columbia SC, I-20 to Georgia may be a better bet than I-26 to the hills and mountains.
Oh, look: FEMA recently simulated just this hurricane:
Forecast confidence increases dramatically between 48 hours out and 24 hours out, and and we are entering that window for landfall.
We’re well into that window already for pre-landfall effects with a storm this large. Anyone under the bulk of the spaghetti curves who isn’t on the road, or at least one foot out the door, is running late.
I have access to VDEM advisories.
Right now, they don’t know much more than you or I know. In VA, we think we are in a holding pattern at least until the weekend. A lot of people expect Florence to loop around to the north, so we may get the tail end.
It has already rained here the last four days (unrelated to hurricane). When you add that to record rainfalls in the spring and summer, as well as mountains known to have landslides, there are still a lot of bad possibilities in the near term.
Yes huge storm area wise and on that point if the eye is 40 miles wide for example and the forecast models have the center stalling 20 miles offshore the eyewall would be onshore.. if the eye were smaller that wouldn’t be the case
Also it moves along the coastline SW. that’s bad but not as bad as moving NE because the NW offshore flow will upswell colder water more quickly and the storm would be moving over that water .. even on non hurricane days an offshore flow up wells colder water near the coast
I have vacationed at Blowing Rock, NC a number of times. Can’t imagine 4 to 8 inches of rain all at once on that mountainous area with convoluted roads.
Is Flo still looking annular?
Somewhat, yes. Looks more like a big honkin’ donut instead of having distinct feeder bands.
pressure went up a few MB last pass 945 to 948
another double wind max on recon data....another eyewall replacement underway??
she may fall to a CAT 3 for the time being as the newer outer and even larger eye tries to take over...recon finding the storm has grown yet again area wise
I’ll add here that we have a couple large 5v USB battery banks (two outputs, 20,000 maH total) and a couple smaller ones, along with a couple 4 port chargers. The big banks allow one to accumulate substantial energy relatively quickly, in case one gets into rationing the generator (ie., off as much as or more than on), can be charged from a car too, and are very portable of course.
We also have a stash of NiMh A - D & also Li 18650 batteries with a couple chargers including one that runs off 120v AC or 12v DC. (My 18650 powered LED headlamps are great, even if way overrated on eBay.)
An aside: I’d trade this pattern giving us wonderful weather in the Midwest for quite a bit worse, if it’d “ease” things for those in the way of Florence, but, I don’t think THAT prayer is going to work... :-(
I should add since Hugo there has been huge population growth along the coast
For example New Hanover county(Wilmington)
pop 1990 120K
pop 2017 227K
Not good - a larger wind field usually means more storm surge...
Yes, an offshore stall 20 miles out, with a 40 mile eye puts the eyewall onshore, but to me, the more important point there is the “Andrew Syndrome.”
Typically, landfall kills the storm. But with certain coastal geometries, landfall can occur while the storm still receives full oceanic support. This would be one of those cases. 24 hours under a high Cat-3 eyewall would do grievious damage to Wilmington, Charleston or both , from wind alone.
I suspect estuary surge would tend more towards cumulative, rather than pulse, as well. The Japan Tsunami proved conclusively that water WILL flow uphill with enough additional water behind it, pushing.
For what it’s worth Joe bastardi that’s just recently posted that it’s going to hit Savannah I’m not real sure about that but I’m not a weather person
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