Yes huge storm area wise and on that point if the eye is 40 miles wide for example and the forecast models have the center stalling 20 miles offshore the eyewall would be onshore.. if the eye were smaller that wouldn’t be the case
Also it moves along the coastline SW. that’s bad but not as bad as moving NE because the NW offshore flow will upswell colder water more quickly and the storm would be moving over that water .. even on non hurricane days an offshore flow up wells colder water near the coast
Yes, an offshore stall 20 miles out, with a 40 mile eye puts the eyewall onshore, but to me, the more important point there is the “Andrew Syndrome.”
Typically, landfall kills the storm. But with certain coastal geometries, landfall can occur while the storm still receives full oceanic support. This would be one of those cases. 24 hours under a high Cat-3 eyewall would do grievious damage to Wilmington, Charleston or both , from wind alone.
I suspect estuary surge would tend more towards cumulative, rather than pulse, as well. The Japan Tsunami proved conclusively that water WILL flow uphill with enough additional water behind it, pushing.
The eye is 40 miles wide?!?
Gads.