Posted on 09/09/2018 8:01:18 AM PDT by NautiNurse
September 10 is the statistical peak of the Atlantic Tropical Storm season, and the conga line of storms dancing across the Atlantic is not disappointing historical data. The Governors of NC and SC have declared states of emergency for a potential major hurricane landfall, while Hurricane Florence is slowly creeping westward. Florence is predicted to increase forward motion and intensity Monday. Hurricanes Hazel (1954) and Hugo (1989) are two notorious major hurricanes to make landfall in NC and SC, respectively. North Carolina has prior experience with "F" named hurricanes. Hurricanes Fran (1996) and Floyd (1999) caused widespread flooding and damage in the Tar Heel state.
The NHC has been issuing Public Advisories for Florence since August 30. The five day "Cone of Uncertainty" archive progression since Aug. 30 may be found here.
Isaac is a small storm. Isaac is predicted to steadily strengthen during the next few days as the storm remains over warm waters and in a low wind shear environment in the short term. The NHC predicts Isaac will reach hurricane status within 2 days.
Helene is expected to reach hurricane status in the short term. However, Helene is not anticipated to threaten U.S. interests. The forecast track turns north into the mid-Atlantic.
Click on the images below to enlarge
We went throgh all that last year,in the keys. Really tough. We got out for the worst of it glad we did.
last year there were no rooms in florida for those late getting out roads were bumper to bumper moving at snails pace we spent 20 hours going 300 miles one day.
I have really good friends at Dutchmans Creek B&T hope they got out.
"Lighten up tomkat. I popped on the thread this morning and see the updated track takes the eye right over our beach house at 2 AM Saturday. Sometimes a little humor helps.”...and those prayers and thoughts go out to everyone in the storm's path.
Some people like it, some people don’t. Tomkat makes the mistake of believing I do the humor for him or others. I don’t. I post what makes ME laugh. If it makes someone else laugh, too, that’s icing on the cake.
God bless and keep you through this storm, bro. Prayers your way.
In the meantime,
Those maps are CRAZY
Thanks NN
We have a cottage in WNC......and would be there right now if we had’t driven home recently for doctor visits
Had no idea a hurricane would develop for those parts!
My concern is for friends, our church and the dear town folks
Summary of 0500 Update
Location: 575 miles SE of Cape Fear NC
Max sustained winds 130 mph
Moving WNW at 17 mph
Mimimum pressure 946 mb
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward
up to 175 miles.
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-- 
just saw the 5 AM come. Now pointed towards Athens by Saturday as a rain-dumping depression by then.
Per normal, we are ready.
I will take all the sketti slack.
The latest NHC advisory is very unsettling for a storm large enough to cover NC/SC.
Hurricane Andrew was "aimed" at the Florida Keys, so Keys residents fled three hours away to Dade County. Andrew changed course, spared the Keys, and absolutely crushed Dade County!
Andrew forced State Farm Insurance out of the residential insurance business (at least in Florida).
You are the best Laz, we always appreciate your humor never gets old.this thread is serious enough a little levity is appreciated.
Exactly we had peopole drving all over the state to get out of the path of a storm,even last year it happened. Storms are pretty unpredictable and have a habait of changing just when you think the steering currents are set in stone,they aren’t.It’s not that unusual.
Lates Update:
Models are showing the hurricane stalling near the coast, and then actually heading southwest towards South Carolina and Georgia.
North Carolina is still going to get slammed near Wilmington, and interior North Carolina is going to get punishing rains. The rains will also devastate much of the southeast region. Looks like Wilmington is still the track, but then the storm turns after lashing the city.
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As Florence nears the coast on Thursday night, wind shear may increase to a moderate 10 – 20 knots, and the shallower waters near the coast will provide less oceanic fuel. Florence will most likely be a Category 3 near landfall—assuming it crosses the coast, that is. The steering currents driving Florence toward the East Coast will collapse on Friday, and models now agree the storm is likely to stall somewhere within 100 miles on either side of the coast, perhaps for one or two days. The 12Z Tuesday run of the European model introduced a new and very distressing possibility: Florence stalling just offshore of North Carolina near Wilmington for roughly a day, then moving southwestward along and just off the South Carolina coast on Saturday, and finally making landfall close to Savannah, Georgia, on Sunday—all while still a hurricane. This outlandish-seeming prospect gained support from the 18Z run of the GFS model. It painted a very similar picture, with a landfall a bit farther north, near Charleston, on Sunday. The 18Z track from the experimental GFS FV3 model is very similar to the GFS track.
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Again - this is just a forecast, and can and will change.
However, it is a development we should watch.
Not saying this is 100% accurate. However, please see the progress as outlined in the model at Windy.com
Hit play, and watch the projected path from Thursday through next Tuesday. It has Florence going south along the South Carolina Coast and towards Savannah Georgia.
The key to adequate preparation is to grasp that this storm is enormous. Following any of the skinny model tracks for making life saving decisions is not wise. Local Emergency Management advisories provide the most reliable information for local impacts.
I don’t think either the southeast or the midatlantic states are out of the woods yet on this one.
This storm is HUGE, with weak steering currents at 48 hours. Forecast confidence beyond 48 hours is rather low. Heed local advisories.
I’ve got one of those. I need to empty it and re-fill. Thanks for the reminder.
This new track is so convoluted my brain is throbbing.
Big sand dunes up that a way, eh?
Hurricane hits the coast, bounces, then tries again a bit further south. SIL in Charlotte, others in the mountains between ATL and Winston-Salem.
No skilltest (er, Skittles), LAZ?
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