Lates Update:
Models are showing the hurricane stalling near the coast, and then actually heading southwest towards South Carolina and Georgia.
North Carolina is still going to get slammed near Wilmington, and interior North Carolina is going to get punishing rains. The rains will also devastate much of the southeast region. Looks like Wilmington is still the track, but then the storm turns after lashing the city.
__________________
As Florence nears the coast on Thursday night, wind shear may increase to a moderate 10 20 knots, and the shallower waters near the coast will provide less oceanic fuel. Florence will most likely be a Category 3 near landfallassuming it crosses the coast, that is. The steering currents driving Florence toward the East Coast will collapse on Friday, and models now agree the storm is likely to stall somewhere within 100 miles on either side of the coast, perhaps for one or two days. The 12Z Tuesday run of the European model introduced a new and very distressing possibility: Florence stalling just offshore of North Carolina near Wilmington for roughly a day, then moving southwestward along and just off the South Carolina coast on Saturday, and finally making landfall close to Savannah, Georgia, on Sundayall while still a hurricane. This outlandish-seeming prospect gained support from the 18Z run of the GFS model. It painted a very similar picture, with a landfall a bit farther north, near Charleston, on Sunday. The 18Z track from the experimental GFS FV3 model is very similar to the GFS track.
-------------------------------------
Again - this is just a forecast, and can and will change.
However, it is a development we should watch.
The key to adequate preparation is to grasp that this storm is enormous. Following any of the skinny model tracks for making life saving decisions is not wise. Local Emergency Management advisories provide the most reliable information for local impacts.
I dont think either the southeast or the midatlantic states are out of the woods yet on this one.
Big sand dunes up that a way, eh?
Hurricane hits the coast, bounces, then tries again a bit further south. SIL in Charlotte, others in the mountains between ATL and Winston-Salem.
No skilltest (er, Skittles), LAZ?