Posted on 09/09/2018 8:01:18 AM PDT by NautiNurse
September 10 is the statistical peak of the Atlantic Tropical Storm season, and the conga line of storms dancing across the Atlantic is not disappointing historical data. The Governors of NC and SC have declared states of emergency for a potential major hurricane landfall, while Hurricane Florence is slowly creeping westward. Florence is predicted to increase forward motion and intensity Monday. Hurricanes Hazel (1954) and Hugo (1989) are two notorious major hurricanes to make landfall in NC and SC, respectively. North Carolina has prior experience with "F" named hurricanes. Hurricanes Fran (1996) and Floyd (1999) caused widespread flooding and damage in the Tar Heel state.
The NHC has been issuing Public Advisories for Florence since August 30. The five day "Cone of Uncertainty" archive progression since Aug. 30 may be found here.
Isaac is a small storm. Isaac is predicted to steadily strengthen during the next few days as the storm remains over warm waters and in a low wind shear environment in the short term. The NHC predicts Isaac will reach hurricane status within 2 days.
Helene is expected to reach hurricane status in the short term. However, Helene is not anticipated to threaten U.S. interests. The forecast track turns north into the mid-Atlantic.
Click on the images below to enlarge
thanks yet again for the thread, nn
Mandatory non resident evac issued for Ocracoke.
Dang it, Appy I hate it that your vacation’s been busted. Hate it even more than the storm’s gonna stall over your home area.
http://www.witn.com/content/news/Ocracoke-visitors-told-to-evacuate-island-492871161.html
Amtrak announces changes to service due to hurricane.
This has got me thinking shades of Agnes in 1972...
https://www.washingtonian.com/2012/06/19/deluge/
Prayers for all in harm’s way.
Ping for later.
I remember Agnes. Incredible damage. I was pretty young and enjoyed the new back yard river that formed back there.
I was kid living in the Southern Tier of NY at the time. Agnes left an impression.
Neat little story: the father of the man I later married was one of the folks responsible for getting aid to our area from up north.
Significant Amtrak schedule alterations. Thanks for posting!
Oh wow. That’s amazing. You must have felt bonded to your future father in law from the beginning of your relationship. It’s a small world sometimes. <3
People don’t realize how much the Md-Ny areas get effected by these tropical weather. I recall several years ago, it seemed like one left over storm after another hammered us.
Glad to be assisting the effort!
An Eye wall replacement cycle may be starting ....rather fast but these things are unpredictable
another larger eye develops around the old eye chocking the old eye off....this causing the maximum winds to decrease and the pressure to rise...however the storms grows in size
after the cycle is complete the winds may increase again while having a larger storm then before
The timing of these cycles are critical as a tropical system nears land for maximum wind speed
No
I was hoping they were not evacuated yet so they could leave early.
Unfortunately they waited until it was mandatory.
She’s going w/college friends to one of their families home in Maryland.
Thanks for the info!
Yes going SW from Myrtle beach would have been best.
The winds have increased to 150 mph tho
I am keeping my eyes on Isaac and every thing else until we have a blue northerner. Once the northern winds blow we don’t need to worry about tropical systems. Come on north winds!
My friends in Corpus and I are chatting about Isaac as well. I’m in Md, so were staying in touch about both of the storms.
I’m not sure but thank you very much for the information
I sent it off to her
Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018
The rapid intensification of Florence ended just after the last
advisory, with the central pressure falling to near 939 mb. Since
that time, the eyewall convection has become a bit ragged and the
latest central pressure from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is near 944 mb. The initial intensity will remain a
possibly generous 120 kt for this advisory based on the aircraft
winds. Microwave imagery suggests that Florence may be starting an
eyewall replacement cycle. However, the winds from the Hurricane
Hunter did not clearly indicate the presence of an outer eyewall.
Florence should remain in a light shear environment and over sea
surface temperatures near 29C for at least the next 48 h. Thus,
there is little other than eyewall replacement cycles to keep the
hurricane from intensifying further as indicated by all of the
intensity guidance. The new intensity forecast calls for continued
strengthening to near category 5 strength, although at a slower rate
than what occurred during the last 30 h. Florence is expected to
encounter southwesterly shear near the 72 h point, which could
cause slight weakening before landfall. However, there remains high
confidence that Florence will be a large and extremely dangerous
hurricane, regardless of its exact intensity.
The initial motion is 290/11. A building mid-level ridge over the
northwestern Atlantic is expected to steer Florence
west-northwestward to northwestward with an increase in forward
speed during the next 48 h. After that time, a marked decrease in
forward speed is likely as another ridge builds over the Great
Lakes to the north of Florence. The track guidance continues to
show some spread between the ECMWF on the left side of the envelope
and the GFS on the right side. Overall, though, the guidance has
again shifted a little to the right, and the 72-96 h points are
nudged just a little to the right from the previous forecast. It is
important not to focus on the exact forecast track as average NHC
errors at days 3, 4, and 5 are about 100, 140 and 180 n mi,
respectively, and dangerous hazards will extend well away from the
center.
The NOAA G-IV jet will continue to conduct synoptic surveillance
missions every 12 h through at least Wednesday. In addition, special
0600 UTC and 1800 UTC radiosonde launches have been expanded to
additional upper-air stations across the U.S. to collect extra data
for the numerical models. The next Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter mission into Florence is scheduled for near 12Z.
Key Messages:
1. A life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the
coastlines of South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia, and
a Storm Surge Watch will likely be issued for some of these areas by
Tuesday morning. All interests from South Carolina into the mid-
Atlantic region should ensure they have their hurricane plan in
place and follow any advice given by local officials.
2. Life-threatening freshwater flooding is likely from a prolonged
and exceptionally heavy rainfall event, which may extend inland over
the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic for hundreds of miles as Florence is
expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and moves inland.
3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the
coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Watch
will likely be issued by Tuesday morning. Damaging winds could also
spread well inland into portions of the Carolinas and Virginia.
4. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East
Coast will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf
and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/0300Z 25.9N 62.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 26.5N 64.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 27.9N 67.5W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 29.6N 70.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 31.3N 73.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 14/0000Z 34.0N 76.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 15/0000Z 35.5N 78.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 16/0000Z 36.5N 79.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
Per the link below, it looks like the National Park Service is shutting down parks along the NC coast effective earlier today...
https://www.nps.gov/wrbr/learn/news/18_040.htm
And here’s another two National Park closings effective today...
https://www.nps.gov/mocr/planyourvisit/conditions.htm (Moore’s Creek National Battlefield)
https://www.nps.gov/calo/index.htm (Cape Lookout Natl Seashore)
This is a useful discussion forum. Here’s a thread discussing the unusually heavy rain totals in the East this summer. It’s going to make absorbing Florence’s downpours a lot more difficult.
https://wxdisco.com/forums/topic/262-sept-8-11-2018-rain-storm-flooding/
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