Posted on 08/14/2018 9:26:11 AM PDT by Teacher317
The 35 Senate seats up for grabs in NOV:
(14) Easy Dem wins: CA-Feinstein, CT-Murphy, DE-Carper, HI-Hirono, ME-King (I), MD-Cardin, MA-Warren (Fauxcahontas), MN1-Klobuchar, NY-Gillibrand, WA-Cantwell, VT-Sanders (I), NM-Heinrich, RI-Whitehouse and VA-Kaine (VP candidate)
(5) Easy GOP wins: MS1-Wicker, MS2-Hyde-Smith, NE-Fischer, UT-Romney (yes, of MASS), WY-Barrasso
Now for the more interesting races, and how those states voted for Trump:
(3) The close Trump win states, but likely DEM wins...
MI (Trump +0.3): Stabenow (D) currently polling at +18
PA (Trump +0.7): Casey (D) +17
WI (Trump +0.8): Baldwin (D) +15 (yet WI re-elected their other Senator, Ron Johnson (R), the Anti-Baldwin, in 2016 at +5?????... Schizophrenic State)
(1) SHOULD be in play but ain't...
OH (Trump +8): Brown (D) +13
That's 18 DEM wins to 5 for the GOP... but none change their current Party. It's still +1 GOP (47 / 2 / 51)...
Now... here's the 12 races where the action really takes place (current GOP seat in red)...
(3) The possibly in play, but weren't expected to be...
NJ (Hillary +14): Menendez (D), was +21 in JUN, now just +2!!!
MN2 (Hillary +1.5): Smith (D) was +14 in JUN, now just +4!
TEX (Trump +9): Cruz (R) +6 (the fact that TEXAS is this close gets Dems excited... but that 9% = 813,000 votes to overcome)
(6) The WTH????? How are these even close??? How are these DEM seats???
IN (Trump +19): Donnelly (D) tossup trending GOP?
MO (Trump +19): McCaskill (D) tossup trending GOP?
MT (Trump +21): Tester (D) +3
TN (Trump +26): (open) tossup trending GOP?
ND (Trump +35): Heitkamp (D) tossup trending GOP?
WV (Trump +42): Manchin (D) +10
(3) And the other close races that everyone is focused on:
NV (Hillary +2): tossup (bouncing both ways)
FL (Trump +1.2): Scott (R) +3
AZ (Trump +3): Sinema (D) +4 (a new RINO or a DEM pickup... still a loss either way, really. Replacing Flake with a Trumper could have been a big win.)
Of those final 12, the GOP currently holds 4 (AZ, NV, TN, and TX). The Dems currently hold the other 8. Trump won 9 of those states. Hillary won 3 (MN, NJ, NV).
If the 7 states that went for Trump by 9+ points all go to the GOP, then the GOP will gain at least +1 in NOV, no matter what the other 5 states do. (The GOP needs about a +4 to become RINO-proof, however.)
Picking up NJ (Hillary +14) would be stunning.
Ditching Sherrod Brown (D) in Ohio was my big pipe dream for NOV (Trump +8!), but that isn't looking likely.
A finish of +8 is still reasonably possible.
Why do Buckeyes so like this Brown? I never understood that, but Buckeyes do those things.
Trump does 3 rallies a week should just about cover it.
A big Democrat Swamp scandal would be nice in a few weeks.
At this point, a Democrat scandal wouldn’t get even a minute of airtime. Only folks that would hear about are a few conservatives.
Concern in NV is that there may be enough votes for jack-ee Rosen coming out of Vegas to beat Heller and screw the rest of the counties. He may not be great but he’s not a dem. We already have one of those.
JMO, but in WV, Morrisey doesn’t seem to have the resources to go toe-to-toe with Manchin. Manchin & related PACs have managed to define Morrisey as a carpetbagger & in cahoots with Big Pharma(!).
The response from the Morrisey 2018 bunch? Attempts to portray Manchin as pro-choice & pro-immigration. Again, IMO, these efforts fall short of the mark.
If I had anything to do with advertising for the Morrisey 2018 campaign (I don’t) I would hammer Manchin as “Joe 2-face.” Says one thing, does another. Or maybe bill Manchin as the “Senator from Bloomberg.” Crank the spots out in comic-book fashion to get the low-info voter.
Should anyone from the Morrisey camp see this, you’re welcome.
As for Ohio, the GOPe candidate — Jim Renacci defeated Mike Gibbons to face Sherrard Brown (aka McGruff the Crime Dog). See the poll numbers? Say what you like about Mike Gibbons as a candidate, but he clearly would have taken the fight to Brown in a way Renacci studiously hasn’t. IMO, just a poor candidate to put up against Brown.
YMMV.
JMO, but Ohio’s 3-C’s — Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincinnati — give Brown the edge in the state.
Not enough votes in the rest of the state to offset the DEM advantage there.
What’s going to happen if GOP pick up 10 Senate seats AND hold the house?
I mean, who are the rats going to blame? Chi-coms, Norks, QAnon, Ruskies, who else do they have to throw under the bus, Fox news???
Since 1978 in the 23 instances were an incumbent Senator ran for re-election in a state where the opposite party’s presidential candidate had taken it, the number of incumbents who lost is zero. Not saying that will be the case this year, but the fact that Trump took all those states with Democrat incumbents is not a predictor on who will be re-elected in November.
I mean, who are the rats going to blame? Chi-coms, Norks, QAnon, Ruskies, who else do they have to throw under the bus, Fox news???
I imagine that would be the GOP plan if the Democrats stay steady in the Senate and take the House.
Oh, I disagree. That’s what Q is for. That’s what Twitter is for.
Millions of Americans know that the media hides what it knows and lies about the truth. There are now ways of getting the news out to the public and it all leaves the media in the dust.
If the Democrats rely on the MSM and the Republicans rely on alternative means, this makes the Democrats look like liars and the Republicans look like truth tellers.
It’s a new game now.
This is the real reason the Left started its attack on Trump.
They needed to save the Senate.
The GOP-e decided to help them.
What are the figures pre-78...LOL.
I’m thinking we’re going to hold house and expand in Senate.
Just what my gut tells me.
My prediction since the beginning of the year was and is: GOP pickups...in the Senate: Six to Twelve seats. In the house, GOP will pickup twelve to twenty seats.
Democrats have no one and I mean no one to campaign for them effectively. Obama and Michelle punked out and headed for Martha’s Vineyard for the entire month of August. You will witness few “Obama” led rallies, if any. And....Clinton, and the rest of the Democrat socialists will have serious trouble matching the massive Trump political rallies.
Trump will attend somewhere between thirty to sixty mass political rallies and will be relentless in attack against the Democrat low life and America haters!!!
Folks...trust very few polls...this political game will swing back and forth...but, at the end of the day the Trumpies win big time!!!
I’m thinking we lose the House and have a net gain of one or two in the Senate. We’ll know which one of us is right in twelve weeks.
CT voters has a primary today...the R Senator sounds great...Murphy is a clone of Bill Nelson, but stupider...
Blue is collapsing of their own deeds.
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